Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

* Title stolen directly from a Gigabet thread.


This is from the Stars 700k. I have been card dead out of my mind, and have a very tight table image. The sb is sort of new to the table, and I have no significant reads. The bb seems to be good, but is VERY tight, and has not shown any inclination to bluff. The table is very aggressive, almost no walks to the big blinds, and a 3x open raise almost every hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) converter

MP3 (t7500)
CO (t3980)
Hero (t3195)
SB (t12639)
BB (t9350)
UTG (t9525)
UTG+1 (t6790)
MP1 (t5220)
MP2 (t4140)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I open raise to 600, SB smooth calls, BB requests time for a few seconds, then raises to 2400.


I fold.

Thoughts?

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

You're way behind his range then. Good fold.

I imagine he doesn't do this without TT-AA, AK, AQs.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

pretty standard here, I don't usually play 9's after a raise behind me by a tight player... plus he put in 4times as much you put in, so he's pretty serious about the hand.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

yep.. and if he's really that tight I'd imagine him smooth calling 10's, JJ, and AQs.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
pretty standard here, I don't usually play 9's after a raise behind me by a tight player... plus he put in 4times as much you put in, so he's pretty serious about the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't really add much, but you took the time to respond to mine recently so...

Have to agree with the above, with that big of a raise, he doesn't want you to call and doesn't seem to want to play post flop, smells like TT-QQ or an outside chance of AKs. Think you have to fold here and look for a better spot.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

that would be a super loose call.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
yep.. and if he's really that tight I'd imagine him smooth calling 10's, JJ, and AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]i doubt it
if he is a good player like stated he will notice the position raise
tight doesnt mean passive

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

oh yes our hero is on the button, didn't see that little (important) factoid.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

4400 in the pot, 2600 to you (ignore the fact that he hasn't put you AI yet) Yeah, that's a call. 1.69:1 on the call, meaning you need 37% equity. Using Tiger's ridiculously tight standard that includes no hands that you dominate (and all hands that dominate youj) AA-TT, AK, AQs you have 33% eq.

Using a more realistic range:

Hand 1: 40.8554 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 59.1446 % [ 00.59 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }

Vs. a loose range:

Hand 1: 48.6550 % [ 00.48 00.01 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 51.3450 % [ 00.51 00.01 ] { AA-77, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo

And if we simply open Tiger's range to include AQo:
Hand 1: 37.2601 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.7399 % [ 00.63 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }

it is still a call.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
1.69:1 on the call, meaning you need 37% equity

[/ QUOTE ]

thats to see all 5 cards though. using PF equities is really only applicable when you're getting all in. Well not totally, but you know.

edit: yea i just saw that hero will bsaically be all in. I'm a tool.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
ignore the fact that he hasn't put you AI yet

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? It is relevent, it changes the numbers.

EDIT: Also, you totally disregard the SB?

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Solely because of the position, I am calling this and don't think twice about it.

Results:
 

Results...


I thought in a best case scenario he had AK, but the raise, and timing felt more like a big pair. After much deliberation I folded.

The SB called, and they got it all in on the flop- SB had A9s with a flush draw, and bb had kings. I was pretty confident about the fold, but I thought without a real specific read itd be pretty bad.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Those numbers assumed that you would push for 3200 instead of calling for 2400. I don't think you have any FE, nor do I think you're foolish enough to just call. Was I wrong? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yes, I am ignoring the SB who should fold after a raise, reraise, and a push. Hell, he is welcome to call with any hand that he flat called in the SB with.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Solely because of the position, I am calling this and don't think twice about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a restealing situation. I don't think you have a good enough read online that villain needs a standard raising hand to push.

Plus you only need 37% with pot odds. You are 20% against a higher pair and 57% against AK. AK-AQ are a lot more common than TT-AA. Even if AK-AQ, TT-AA is villain's range, this is a call.

If you raise with KTo and I push from the BB, you have a pot odds call.

This is a terrible fold.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Remember that to win this tournament you need like 3M chips.

Passing on obviously slightly EV spots is dumb.

-Jason

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the read.

SB called and uber tight BB basically sets you all in? I think TT+/AK or JJ+/AK is the range you're looking at here. With 44:26 (1.7:1) effective odds you need 37% equity. You don't have the odds against that range. Don't forget that the SB is still in there.

And nh on Sunday.

Everett

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

going by your description and the type of play (extended time before raising) - I would say, although it could be a number of things...

that long hesitation before a call or raise is usually a tell of a monster....and your reads on him...ah yah - lay it down.

RB

EDIT - I saw your results -- yah - that was an old Caro tell - one of the few I remember - I do it sometimes if I want to see a check - I'll just check and they'll think twice before betting -

and sometimes I'm just late getting back to the PC and I see AA.

RB

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the read.

SB called and uber tight BB basically sets you all in? I think TT+/AK or JJ+/AK is the range you're looking at here. With 44:26 (1.7:1) effective odds you need 37% equity. You don't have the odds against that range. Don't forget that the SB is still in there.

And nh on Sunday.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

It is very unlikely that SB flat called with TT-AA, so I don't see the problem in SB being in the hand. SB being in the hand makes for a fatter pot to push at.

Maybe BB just hasn't had any cards. If the table is playing loose, I will often play real tight.

I just can't see how you can put someone on a range tight enough that this isn't a pot odds call with 99.

OP is weak tight. This fold is almost as bad as the alleged fold in the Gigabet post.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
OP is weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke betgo? I think I've gone all in with 10 high, and restolen with 27o, and called down with middle pair, plenty of times to not be called weak tight. Maybe this was a weak tight fold, but I had a very strong read on my opponent, and (GASP!) I went with it. If there was a weak tight player in this hand, it was the BB, so yeah-- I gave him respect when he reraises me (who has a tight rep).

I'm weak tight?? Just because I make a big fold doesn't make me weak tight, its all about situations.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Oh, and to say folding 99 to a strong reraise by a very tight player is almost as bad as folding top 2 against Dan Harrington in blind vs blind-- that is absurd.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my initial reaction was along these lines. Then I decided that "its not even close" would be at odds with EVERY OTHER POSTER in this thread... so it is close apparently.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
The sb is sort of new to the table, and I have no significant reads. The bb seems to be good, but is VERY tight, and has not shown any inclination to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which means you are basically praying for him to have AK, because I dont ever see him doing this with 22-88.

It is really close. You can make the argument for the call if pushing can get SB out of the hand a high enough percentage of the time.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OP is weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke betgo? I think I've gone all in with 10 high, and restolen with 27o, and called down with middle pair, plenty of times to not be called weak tight. Maybe this was a weak tight fold, but I had a very strong read on my opponent, and (GASP!) I went with it. If there was a weak tight player in this hand, it was the BB, so yeah-- I gave him respect when he reraises me (who has a tight rep).

I'm weak tight?? Just because I make a big fold doesn't make me weak tight, its all about situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just agreeing with you. I thought that was the title of your thread. OK, you are weak tight in this situation.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the read.

SB called and uber tight BB basically sets you all in? I think TT+/AK or JJ+/AK is the range you're looking at here. With 44:26 (1.7:1) effective odds you need 37% equity. You don't have the odds against that range. Don't forget that the SB is still in there.

And nh on Sunday.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

It is very unlikely that SB flat called with TT-AA, so I don't see the problem in SB being in the hand. SB being in the hand makes for a fatter pot to push at.

Maybe BB just hasn't had any cards. If the table is playing loose, I will often play real tight.

I just can't see how you can put someone on a range tight enough that this isn't a pot odds call with 99.

OP is weak tight. This fold is almost as bad as the alleged fold in the Gigabet post.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only hand in his range that im "beating" is AK. I am pretty sure that his range does not include 88 and lower (ever) and rarely, if ever, AQ.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wtf world do you play in.

You have 15bb open from the button and one of the blinds pushes back??

for heavens sake stick it in there it doesnt seem close.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you missed the read.

SB called and uber tight BB basically sets you all in? I think TT+/AK or JJ+/AK is the range you're looking at here. With 44:26 (1.7:1) effective odds you need 37% equity. You don't have the odds against that range. Don't forget that the SB is still in there.

And nh on Sunday.

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

It is very unlikely that SB flat called with TT-AA, so I don't see the problem in SB being in the hand. SB being in the hand makes for a fatter pot to push at.

Maybe BB just hasn't had any cards. If the table is playing loose, I will often play real tight.

I just can't see how you can put someone on a range tight enough that this isn't a pot odds call with 99.

OP is weak tight. This fold is almost as bad as the alleged fold in the Gigabet post.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only hand in his range that im "beating" is AK. I am pretty sure that his range does not include 88 and lower (ever) and rarely, if ever, AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you assume that someone who is this far along in a $500 tournament will play the hand that badly? Flat calling with AQ would be a really bad play. I don't think you know enough about villain to know he would misplay AQ here. He might be tight because he is afraid to play a flop, but willing to push.

This is a classic resteal / squeeze play situation. I am pushing from the BB with any raising hand and a lot of other hands.

You are getting 37% pot odds. AK is 56% QQ-KK is 20%. Even if you know that villain will push with those hands and no others, calling is still slightly EV+, because the odds of getting AK are 1.21% and that of AA-QQ 1.36%.

Even if this were slightly EV-, it is to your advantage to gamble at this stage, and it is not good for table image to fold to a reraise.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Even if this were slightly EV-, it is to your advantage to gamble at this stage, and it is not good for table image to fold to a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not like he's flipping 99 face up or anything...

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Hand 1: 31.1892 % 30.98% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 68.8108 % 68.61% 00.20% { TT+, AKs, AKo }


And if you include AQ...

Hand 1: 37.2601 % 37.06% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.7399 % 62.54% 00.20% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


(Which I'm not sure should be included.)



So if its the looser range, then it's almost exactly neutral EV (I'm getting 1.76-1, and thus need 36% equity).

And does no one give any attention to the "requesting time?"

In my experience in a spot like that it makes him look weak, and I'd guess that is intentional, and more often than not means he is very strong.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

I did pay attention to that, and that's part of how I derived my range. From a tight player, a quick move can be strength or weakness, but a slow move is almost always strength. Sorry I didn't mention that in my original post.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 31.1892 % 30.98% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 68.8108 % 68.61% 00.20% { TT+, AKs, AKo }


And if you include AQ...

Hand 1: 37.2601 % 37.06% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.7399 % 62.54% 00.20% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


(Which I'm not sure should be included.)



So if its the looser range, then it's almost exactly neutral EV (I'm getting 1.76-1, and thus need 36% equity).

And does no one give any attention to the "requesting time?"

In my experience in a spot like that it makes him look weak, and I'd guess that is intentional, and more often than not means he is very strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do your figures consider the fact that villain is much more likely to be dealt AK or AQ than AA or KK? I based my math on that assumption.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
The bb seems to be good, but is VERY tight, and has not shown any inclination to bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do you get the read that villain is so weak/tight that he will not push here with a reasonable hand? You say he is a good player. Isn't this just the situation where a good tight player would use his image to make a move? He doesn't know you raised from the button with a hand as strong as 99. If he is a good player, he should know the standard play is to push with any raising hand. How do you know so much about this guy? I think you are either being too cleaver or letting your fears override your reason.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do your figures consider the fact that villain is much more likely to be dealt AK or AQ than AA or KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

pokerstove does take that into consideration yes.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

I'm much more willing to call a push than I am to call this raise. It looks exactly like KK or AA and I think there are times when you can fold here. I hate folding and I probably stick it in but I don't hate your fold. Clearly you were there and had the read. Even if it is slightly wrong, due to the nature of the tournament, I don't know how anyone can say that the fold is horrible.

Schaefer

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm much more willing to call a push than I am to call this raise. It looks exactly like KK or AA and I think there are times when you can fold here. I hate folding and I probably stick it in but I don't hate your fold. Clearly you were there and had the read. Even if it is slightly wrong, due to the nature of the tournament, I don't know how anyone can say that the fold is horrible.

Schaefer

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the small reraise and the guy playing supertight, I can see your read. I don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation. However, if all the reads from his betting pattern and pause made you think big pair, it is fine to lay this down. I think it is better to go with your gut than the math and what is a standard play.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Isn't it amazing how 1 post from a respected player can change everything betgo?

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it amazing how 1 post from a respected player can change everything betgo?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[quoteI don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
dude, this is gonna be AA/KK/maaaybeQQ almost every time. that is my read of the sit based on the info we have. that is all.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]
dude, this is gonna be AA/KK/maaaybeQQ almost every time. that is my read of the sit based on the info we have. that is all.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP said that BB is good, not that he's horrible.