standard $109 AK hand?
 

***** Hand History for Game 2512869467 *****
150/300 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14723249) - Wed Aug 10 19:44:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 12035 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Bopper1402 (2675)
Seat 4: airwave (540)
Seat 6: NewtBuggs (2805)
Seat 9: Maabus422 (1765)
Seat 10: bigfly9964 (2215)
Bopper1402 posts small blind (75)
airwave posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to NewtBuggs [ Ks, Ad ]
NewtBuggs raises (400) to 400
Maabus422 folds.
bigfly9964 raises (2215) to 2215
bigfly9964 is all-In.
Bopper1402 folds.
airwave folds.
NewtBuggs folds.

no reads

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'd call. But I might be wrong. Maybe I found a leak!!

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'm not a expert by any means in buy ins over $60, so I'm somewhat puzzled by the hand.

If you could, explain to me your basic logic in folding? (I have a simple idea though not sure its the right one).

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'm a lurker, so this might very well be my first post. Be gentle.

So you're the chip leader approaching the money. t400 is about 15% of your chips (which is good enough to make you think twice about laying this down). If you fold, you're still in 2nd or 3rd chip position sitting across the table from a very small stack looking to give t700 chips to someone very soon.

At best, you're probably a coin flip. At worst, you're dominated by AA or KK. I fold this and look for a better spot to risk my tournament life.

-Rob

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I fold here too, if it makes you feel any better.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

How well do you use your stack?

I fold here, but it might be right for some people to call (or to call if you had a stone-cold read).

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Don't you feel like this may be precisely what the pusher is thinking?

Edit: I'd also like to know how soon the blinds are going up, something to think about.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

so there is 1025 in the pot and it is about 1800 more to call so you are getting about 1.6-1 and would need to have about a 40% chance on average to win to make the call correct. Some quick math I did if you assume the raise is 99-aa, (6 combinations of 99-qq and 6 of aa or kk) gives you 39% on average. But if you add just AQ to he mix, then you are about 48% to win making the call correct. So you would have to put the raiser on only the bigger pairs to make this laydown which is probably too tight to assume of most online players here.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Personally, I would fold, but I don't kick ass with a big stack as much as you and some other people do. How often do you take first if you call and win here? This might be a case where the marginal value of newly acquired chips doesn't reall diminish much, since they will give you so much leverage being on the bubble with a huge stack.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

ICM:
fold=.2403
call and lose=.0851
call and win=.3853

Against AQ+,99+ I will win 48.7%. Against 66+,ATs+,AJo+ I will win 52.1% of the time.

according to ICM, if I win 52% of the time that averages to a value of .2412, which is about .1% higher than folding. So it looks like this is either an almost break even call or an unprofitable one if he is on a tight range. Furthermore, I think that ICM overvalues my strength when I call and lose because I am UTG and will take a blind that cripples my remaining strength.

so now the follow up questions:
1. First, do you agree with the above math? It looks like this is a fold to me. I would think that this guy would be suicidal to be bluffing my UTG raise with a hand like A9 or 55.
2. If I don't want someone to come over the top of my UTG raise, than what do I want from raising UTG? Do I really want the button to just call and have to play what will likely be ace high OOP in a big pot? Maybe pushing is more profitable than simply raising here. Or, perhaps its best to get tricky and limp utg. What do you think? I feel like i've backed myself into a corner by raising utg.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, I think that ICM overvalues my strength when I call and lose because I am UTG and will take a blind that cripples my remaining strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't get me started on how much ICM undervalues your strength when you call and win.

4 handed with one stack at 500! You with ~5k! That is SNG heaven.

Edit: I think this particular hand is almost too close to matter against most opponents.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

oops, i realized that I would have a big stack but didn't realize that I would be the big stack on the bubble with a shorty in the SB, good point.

If you use the IMO more realistic hand range (the first one) this is a 23.13, this is a -.7% call for ICM. Granted, the big stack puts me in a very +EV situation, but so does folding. If I fold I have a very healthy, almost even stack with low blinds and plenty of time to outplay my opponents. This is definitly looking closer though.


What do you think about doing something other than raising to 400 utg here jman?

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

[ QUOTE ]

What do you think about doing something other than raising to 400 utg here jman?


[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't thought about it much. The raise to t400 is my standard play. (I guess it would be a good idea to think about plays we make)

Maybe open pushing would be better, or at least about as good.

I guess it really depends on your opponents. The more aggressive they are, the more you should lean toward open pushing, since you are not interested in getting involved in a coinflip here.

I'd need to look at some ICM to get exact here. I know that you wouldn't mind just taking the blinds, and you would like to get all in v Ax or Kx. You want pairs to fold.

Just a guess, but I think pushing may usually be the best play here. You may get AQ to call. You likely take the blinds. You probably get 22-99 to fold, and maybe TT?

I'm not going to reread my post, as it's now bedtime, and I probably have made a few mistakes that I don't want to fix. I'd prefer to just type this disclaimer.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Here's my thinking on the hand:

I do agree that you should lay this down against most opponents. I will call in 2 situations.

1. This is an overly aggressive player that comes over the top frequently.

2. This player, or a couple of other players at the tables are multi-tablers that you play with alot. A utg raise means strength and if you lay down it shows you do not want to play for all your chips even with some of your best hands. With a number of regulars I like to appear as I will not get pushed around, and with a hand this close I think this is a good time to show you are willing to play with them for all their stacks.


I would never consider limping here. Pushing is an option on certain tables, but I still prefer the raise to T400 or 425.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I like the t400 raise because you aren't getting pushed over the top too often, and a lot of the time, you should be showing AA-QQ here. Gotta keep your range tight here though, which sucks.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the t400 raise because you aren't getting pushed over the top too often, and a lot of the time, you should be showing AA-QQ here. Gotta keep your range tight here though, which sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]
It isn't just someone pushing over the top though, its any action. Do I want the button just calling and us taking a flop?

[ QUOTE ]
2. This player, or a couple of other players at the tables are multi-tablers that you play with alot. A utg raise means strength and if you lay down it shows you do not want to play for all your chips even with some of your best hands. With a number of regulars I like to appear as I will not get pushed around, and with a hand this close I think this is a good time to show you are willing to play with them for all their stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know if this is too big of a concern. The regulars know that you aren't a donk, so they are going to obviously respect your raise. As such, they are probably only going to reraise with a strong hand, and expect you to realize this. I would also raise 88 here, and folding to the push is certainly reasonable. If they knew that you were folding AK here then it would definitly be bad, but they can't tell if you're laying down a monster or a maraginal pocket.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Meh, yeah. I guess reads are really important here.

Action sorta sucks, especially OOP, but man, I've seen way too many Villains call, check to me on flop, and fold to the random bet I put out there.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Ok, I understand a little more now, but I think I disagree with lastchance here. If your factoring in 'no reads' my general thinking, at least in his situation, if he pushes over the top with any marginal hands (AJs, etc) hes gonna get you running enough of the time to make it possibly worth a re-steal chance here. Picking up this hand brings him to about 3500, giving him a solid edge here on out in this tournament.

Like I said before I'm not positive on how to handle this because I dont play 109s, but it seems like you can add those marginal hands you put in your math earlier to the list, and brings this to almost a 50/50 call fold imo. Just like Mike McD said, gotta go with whats in your gut.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Its very well possible that he's pushing things like AJ, but this is a very large raise that he's making. If you were holding AJ there, do you think that you would raise all in? I think that I might play it safe and call on the button. I'm only risking 400 instead of 2200 and position is huge here. There's the added bonus that I'll be able to get more chips here without a showdown as well. If I raise all in off of a continuation bet, I'll be restealing around 1200 of my opponent's chips instead of just the 625 that are in the pot pf.

This is one of the reasons why I'm not too certain that even AQ is in there. Some opponents might be smooth calling on the button with AQ as well.