Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

first instinct is to fold, doing the math I see why you posted these numbers, If you are folding if you miss the turn then its six outs with 45 unseen means you need 7.5 to 1 and I think its like 150 to win 1075 with implied odds when it needs to be 1050 for even ev. So I believe you have very small positve ev.....lol ....then again I might be wrong.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

also the board pairing on river or him having the A hearts flaws my math

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I would fold. Only because he has redraws on the river if I hit. If I am 100% sure of 2 pair, there are less redraws, so I call.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

On instinct I call here, but it's probably very close and because of redraws I bet it's a fold.

you'll win if you hit (8/45) then hit (34/44) - but you also have to account for if he hits two running cards for a flush draw (say 2% that'll happen).

This is 13.73% - running flush draw... or about 6.28 : 1 or a little worse cause of the running flush draw.

You're getting implied odds of $150:925 - or 6.16 : 1...

So it's a fold.

Now if I think he'll check fold to a flush card coming on the turn, then it's a call [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

my first insinct is to fold....top set is wicked (omaha instict coming out)..and i never get there...lol....also, i instintively lean towards folding b/c no read can be this accurate, and since it is close anyway (i guess) i think it is realistically -EV to make this call as a pf raiser would play top pair like this and if you hit you may not get his stack.

math one...uhhhh..83 percent of the time we lose 150....so of the remaingn 17 percent we win 1075 76 percent of the time so 817....not looking good on its face...if we play this hand 100 times we lose 12450 and win 13889....instinct shminstinct, it appears, assuming my math is correct (which is a brave assumption at 3 am) that we make money with this play. i will be waiting for someone to do the math correctly to see if we really do.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

My first instinct was to fold but that it's really close. Part of that may be that my "instincts" are also aware that I can never be 100% certain about how my opponent will act so I tend to round down my implied odds a bit...

For the math... (I'm assuming you want us to do the math by hand/in our head?) I have about a 20% chance of hitting, and in those instances I will get my money in on the turn with roughly 80% pot equity.

If I fold on the flop I have 725 left.

If I call the flop and hit we will play a 1650 pot in which I have 80% equity, for a final pot equity of 1320ish.

If I call the flop and miss, then I fold and have 575 left.

I miss four times as much as I hit, so my final equity of calling on the flop is (.2 x 1320) + (.8 x 575) = 724

So the results are within a dollar of each other... so like I said, it's really close. =P

Actually, my equity calculations for calling the flop are probably slightly too high because the chances of hitting on the turn are a little less than 20%, and his redraw for the river is a bit better than 20% (to be complete it would also need to account for the possibility of him making a runner-runner flush against our straight, in addition to his boat outs, which is worth a couple percent more as well). So in the end, it's a close fold.

Disclaimer: I did not doublecheck my math.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

fold bcz paired board and flush, others can mathematize

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you call.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I fold. And I really don't think it's that -EV. You have nothing invested in the pot...


Now if the stacks were deeper, I always call.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

But..

He has 80% equity on a 500 pot, you have 75% equity on a 1.5k pot.

You lose 150 like 4.3 times. You get rivered and lose your whole 725 25% of the time.


*EV after 4 plays*
Calling and folding turn: -650
Hitting and no river: +3k
Hitting and rivered boat: -625

EV+ 1.5k

Which means, every time you call, you make roughly almost $400.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

This is almost a free double up... this is huge EV+

I think. Great thread BTW.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

i fold.

dont feel like doing the math, but its something like 8/45 X 34/44 = Whatever.

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Hey coltrane,

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Halfway through the post, my instinct was to call, with the thought process being:

"Cool, open-ender. I'm gonna call."

But, that was before I had read the entire thing. Once I got to the part about stack sizes and took a little bit to think it over, I saw that it was a fold.

My quick mental shortcut: Let's say that you drag the pot around 3/4 of the time that you hit on the turn. You win around $700-ish. You lose $150 every time that you miss. That is around 4.6 to 1. It is 4.6 to 1 against hitting. So, you would be around break-even if you didn't lose your entire stack when he hits his redraw. But, you do lose your entire stack when he hits his redraw, which means that the EV of hitting on the turn is less than $700. So, if $700 or so is the break-even point, less than $700 must be a fold.

Not sure if I could have swung that on Party or UB. I think that the clock on Stars would have given me enough time. But, I probably would have called anyway, because hitting a draw is fun...

If you do the actual math, you are looking at -$25.56 on the call, assuming you aren't against the ace of hearts.

Nice thread; I like these.

Mike

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

my instinct is fold, my math answer is:

not factoring in redraws, it would be +EV as

(8/45)*925 - (36/45)*150 = 44.37

but we have the cases of redraws, so we lose 725 sometimes to the nut flush or to a boat. 2/45 unseen turn cards give him a hearts+boat redraw (10 + 9 outs), 6/45 give him just the boat draw (10 outs).

edit: this is wrong, should be

so we lose 725 (2/8)*(19/45) + (6/8)*(10/45) about 27%, of the time that we hit. rest of the of time we win 925 obviously.

so finally we get

(8/45)*(.73*925 - .27*725) - (36/45)*150 = -34.79

edit: assuming we are against the ace of hearts.
--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I'd call there 5-1 i believe that i hit the set on the turn (yes i know it's 3-1 that ill get it by the river.) But i;m getting a ton of implied odds since you said your sure he would move you all in on the turn no matter what hit. Also if the turn brings a flush possibilty you could be sitting pretty at the end with a big pot.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Coltrane, this is realllll close, as you are no doubt well aware. You're getting 6:1, you need 5:1 if he has no redraws, but he does have a 1/4 chance of boating on the river, so it's almost exactly even. It's so close that it's not really that interesting IMO.

I call this if it's a capped buyin and I feel a need for a big stack. Otherwise I fold.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

everyone is saying that it's close, but the numbers don't work out to be so close. coltrane didn't mention the blinds but in a 5-5 game this call is costing us between 5 and 7 blinds (depending on whether or not villian has Ah). that's not insignificant.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Heres my math answer.

37/45 chance we miss and lose 150

break

2/3 chance villan has Ah
8/45 chance we hit

1/4 chance when we hit, villan has flush draw outs
26/44 chance we win 1075
18/44 chance we lose 500

3/4 chance we get straight with no flush
34/44 we win 1075
10/44 we lose 500

break

1/3 chance villan does not have Ah
8/45 we hit
34/44 we win 1075
10/44 we lose 500

You actually have to take into account you get straight with 7h and a Th falls on the river giving you the straight flush and villan full house.

If you want the actual number start with inner most indented lines multiply horizontally, add up rows at same indention and then multiply diagonally. Then add up everything at the breaks. Im guessing the number is very close to 0.

EDIT: sorry the indentions didn't work out so ignore that. But you get the point

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

I fold.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Without reading other posts...

First Instinct: Fold. I don't think you quite have odds here.

Mathy:
Your direct pot odds are 150:350, with implied odds of 150:925.

If you miss the turn, you have to fold, getting 575:500.

Odds are about 4-1 against hitting your straight on the turn, so you need to get at least 600 back to make this call correct, so it appears good, thus far.

However, he has about 4:1 to fill up on the river. So when you hit, you are only getting about 80% of the money for the call.

925 * 80% = 740

Further assuming that he has the Ah, which he will 66% of the time, two of our straight cards give him further outs, which will put him at about 40% equity, earning us only 925 * 60% = 555.

So...
a) We will hit the hand about 20% of the time.
b) Of that 20%, it will be the nuts 75% of the time, without the heart, and he will be improve on the river to win 20% of the time..
c) 25% of the time it will be a heart. 33% of that time, he will not have the heart, leaving the same situation as b.
c) 66% of the time,it will be a heart and he will have the Ah, and 40% chance to improve.


20% * 80% * 925 = 148 * 83.25 = 12321
20% * 60% * 925 = 111 * 16.75 = 1859.25

(12321 + 1859.25) / 100 = 141

So.... you can call 141 and have +EV on this call. Since you have to call 150, it is marginally -EV.

Somebody let me know if my logic is flawed here in any way.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

roughly 6.15:1 offered to you. you are 8/45 to hit and if you hit (ignoring Ah for convenience) he's got 10/44 redraw. so 45x44/8x33 = 45x4/8x3 = 15 / 2 = 7.5:1 so fold.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
my instinct is fold, my math answer is:

not factoring in redraws, it would be +EV as

(8/45)*925 - (36/45)*150 = 44.37

but we have the cases of redraws, so we lose 725 sometimes to the nut flush or to a boat. 2/45 unseen turn cards give him a hearts+boat redraw (10 + 9 outs), 6/45 give him just the boat draw (10 outs).

edit: this is wrong, should be

so we lose 725 (2/8)*(19/45) + (6/8)*(10/45) about 27%, of the time that we hit. rest of the of time we win 925 obviously.

so finally we get

(8/45)*(.73*925 - .27*725) - (36/45)*150 = -34.79

edit: assuming we are against the ace of hearts.
--turnipmonster

[/ QUOTE ]

You can calculate EV more precisely by giving villain a 2/3 chance of having the ace of hearts. (three combos of aces possible in villain's hand, two of which have the ace of hearts, so 2/3 chance he has it.)

I'm too lazy to make sure my math is right, but with that rectification my calculations give hero's straight very close to .75 EV, which brings us within a blind or so of 0 EV.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

what i think is interesting is that everyone is answering this question based solely on math, which leads me to believe that you guys aren't giving proper considerations to all the factors that can lead you to be a winning player at a high level in big bet poker.

namely it can be a very +EV thing to create a loose/gambling table image when in fact you aren't really gambling that much.

think about the table image you'll create for yourself if you can hit this hand and go to showdown, then combine that with the tilt factor you'll be creating by sucking out on his top set.

not every decision at a poker table is based strictly on math.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Good point, particularly tilt factor.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

ML4L's number (didn't check it) was -25 assuming no Ah, my number (assuming Ah) was -35.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
think about the table image you'll create for yourself if you can hit this hand and go to showdown, then combine that with the tilt factor you'll be creating by sucking out on his top set.

not every decision at a poker table is based strictly on math.

[/ QUOTE ]

That will be some loose table image calling flop bets with a straight flush draw [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Straight flush draw?

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

my first instinct was that i should probably call because i misread that opponent had a set (but a random set) and so you would have the advantage on flushes....given top set 100% of the time, its close but probably a fold...

on the flop:
8 outs from 45 cards = 4.625 to 1 = 17.8%

on the turn:
Opponent has 10 FH/quads outs plus a share of possible flush outs. A flush possibility will exist 25% of the time (2 out of 8 str8 cards). There is a 66.7% chance of him having the Ah. So the opponent's flush redraw will exist 66.7% of 25% = 16.67% of the time. Further, you will always have a str8 flush draw (1 or 2 outs) if you hit your str8 with a flush card. Therefore, he will only have 6.5 effective flush outs (if thats even a good term?) whereas you will have 1.5.

(10 + 6.5) of 44 = 37.5%
37.5% of 16.67% = 6.25% chance of redraw on flush turn

10 of 44 = 22.7%
22.7% of (100% - 16.67%) = 18.916% chance of redraw on non-flush turn

6.25% + 18.916% = 25.17% overall chance of opponent redrawing

EV:
100 - 17.8% = 82.2% of the time you lose $150
25.17% of 17.8% = 4.5% of the time you lose $725 (150 + 575)
74.83% of 17.8% = 13.3% of the time you gain $925 (350 + 575)

(.822 * -150) + (.045 * -725) + (.133 * 925) =
-123.3 + -32.63 + 123.03 = -$32.91


So its a fold, but close....however, if you change the question to be a random set, it would probably work out to be a call because he would have no flush redraw with ~77% of his sets.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Doesnt matter. Fold if you hate variance. First instinct guess. I assume villain got us covered?

my thoughts/math
 

thanks for all the responses guys....this was an actual 5/5 hand I played, and my first instinct was that I should call because if I hit I knew I'd get his stack (in the actual hand, I had him covered)....so I did, and I did.....but after the session I wanted to figure out the actual EV and found that I had underestimated the implications of redraws.....it was a -EV play and not really close (like some of you said)......it was interesting to me because often I think it is the case in big bet to make a call with a draw on the flop, but then either dump it on the turn or hit the draw on the turn and have the call be +EV because of implied odds....I was surprised how much redraws affected the math....

now, if there was more money left to bet and I could've made another value bet on the river - that changes things....or, if I could add AK or some other hands to his possible range - that also changes things.....also, as RBK said, tilt factor is an issue.....the guy in this hand was a total nit, so if you asked me if I would pay 30 bucks just to see him lose with a set of aces and spew chips the rest of the night - I might've gladly obliged......plus, as ML4L said, "hitting draws is fun"..... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

now, as far as actual math, I got different answers than some of you....here is my math - I think it's correct and exact, but perhaps someone can double-check it.....




If he doesn't have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
8 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 4400

so:
(4400 - 5550) / 45 = -$25.56 EV


If he does have the Ah:

when I miss:
37 * -150 = -5550

when I hit:
6 * [((34 * 925) + (10 * -725)) / 44] = 3300 (no heart on turn)
+
1 * [((28 * 925) + (16 * -725)) / 44] = 325 (7h on turn)
+
1 * [((27 * 925) + (17 * -725)) / 44] = 287.5 (Qh on turn)
= 3912.5

so:
(3912.5 - 5550) / 45 = -$36.39 EV

and finally, it's 2/3 likely that he has the Ah, so:
(-36.39 - 36.39 - 25.56) / 3 = -$32.78 Total EV

Re: my thoughts/math
 

don't know why you want to make such a marginal call with so much money, a lot of which is your own, when you aren't suited and you know the over cards arent helping if you hit them and you know whether or not you hit the turn you will be put all in anyways. That's an expensive way to create a table image/and put somebody on tilt, even though you took all of his money anyways, and I hope you had some big friends with you walking out of the place. Plus if you create a loose table image wouldn't that take away some stealing and bluffing ability as well? You don't hit big hands often enough to get big payoffs, I would rather "box" with players after the flop. BIG, BIG, friends walking with you to the car. I think there are other ways to create a table image, that won't cost as much money

Re: my thoughts/math
 

Your combinations are right but numbers are wrong. You will get 1075 if you win. This will make it just about even.

Re: my thoughts/math
 

Hey Greek,

[ QUOTE ]
Your combinations are right but numbers are wrong. You will get 1075 if you win and only lose 575 when you lose. This will make it just about even.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to examine the hand from the flop. Between the pot and his opponent's stack, he wins $725 + $200 = $925 when he hits his straight. When he gets rivered, he loses the $150 he put in on the flop plus the $575 on the turn, for a total of $725.

You are counting money that he himself put in on the flop as money that he "wins" and not counting the cost of the draw on the flop as money that he loses.

ML4L

Re: my thoughts/math
 

I suck

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(x-posted on P.Theory)


NL Hold'em
the flop is As 8h 9h

you are on the button with Js Th

SB (who you are 100% certain has top set) leads at the $200 pot with a $150 bet (making a total of $350 in the pot and $150 for you to call).....it is folded to you....if you call the $150 you will have $575 left (and you are 100% certain he will bet you all-in on the turn no matter what the card is)....should you call and why?...gimme your first instinct answer and your mathy one.....

[/ QUOTE ]

Coltrane, this is realllll close, as you are no doubt well aware. You're getting 6:1, you need 5:1 if he has no redraws, but he does have a 1/4 chance of boating on the river, so it's almost exactly even. It's so close that it's not really that interesting IMO.

I call this if it's a capped buyin and I feel a need for a big stack. Otherwise I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

In doing the math in my head, I'm getting correct odds to call and hit the turn, but his ten redraw outs look like it pushes it back to even or slighty -EV. When I end up in places like this (where it is damn close to even) I start to consider all the meta game issues instead.

-Can I rebuy to cover if I lose
-If I break this guy will it hurt/help the game now, and in the future
-What image do I want to project, can I just fold and expose my cards to get the same image for free?

Stuff like that can push you way +++ on future hands. Not to hijack the thread, but I did something sort of like this last week in my home game along the same idea.

There is only 1 other player in my home game that will put moves on me that I fear. He check raised me all in on the flop, I was the pre flop raiser:

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I had A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

And I just felt he was pushing his draw. After doing all the EV math I just decided that I'm coming real close to break even (%time he's ahead, I suck out, % time I'm ahead and hold up, etc). So I thought, well, even if I lose, my call of his shove here WILL stop him from doing it in the future w/o the goods. So I did, he had his draw, and my Ace high held up. After that hand he just stayed away from me and just got out of my way, and mentioned later that, "We play to much together." So, in that sense, my earlier call increased my EV for future hands, since he's the only one at the table I want to avoid and now he's staying away.

Re: my thoughts/math
 

I don't believe I've ever seen a math quiz where everyone agreed on the answer. One poster stated "there is more than one way to figure EV" before posting his calcs.

I prefer to be the agressor, but at the same time I don't want to be seen as a player that can be pushed off a draw by a big bet. I probably fold this hand, thinking that the EV could go either way. But then again...it all depends.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Leave it to Gomberg to add in the proverbial..."it depends". The flush card gives you the opportunity to push the turn as Gomberg suggests, or you could check behind and get a free card, depending on...........

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
but his ten redraw outs look like it pushes it back to even or slighty -EV. When I end up in places like this (where it is damn close to even)

[/ QUOTE ]

did you read the thread? it's not slightly -EV or "damn close" or anything like that, it's a -EV call that costs about 6 big blinds.

I agree with riverboatking that there's more to big bet than math (although no one will think you're a crazy loose gambler for making this call), but coltrane posed it as a math problem.

I think problems like this are great, since they help sharpen our intuition in situations, but only if we take the time to actually work it out, instead of saying things like "it's close" or "it's slightly -EV" which have no mathematical basis whatsoever.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

Hey Coltrane,

alot of people are blowing by something I found important. How the hell did you get 200$ (40bbs) in the pot heads up preflop with jack ten offsuit?? I'd try to avoid that.