QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

Hello All,

Super Tuesday level 1. BB=15.

I'm in the BB with QQ.

5 limpers to the button who raises to 100.

I decide that his raise is enough to scare the limpers and I may be able to stack him if I flop well, so I take that chance here. (feel free to flame). He also doesn't need a great hand to make this raise on the button.

You can make a very good case for an isolation raise here, but I don't want to put 25% of stack in OOP and have a crummy flop with the lead. You can call this weak, but I like my call here, but you can beat it up if you want.

UTG limper pushes for ~1000 total.

Folded to Button who pushes ~1200

I have ~1100 in front of me.

My action?

No reads, its early and I have no notes.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

Fold. Both UTG and button are playing this like they have kings or aces. Your best case is that UTG was stealing with a lower PP and button is overplaying AK but with no reads I think you have to let this go.

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

I lay and dont think about it twice, im not praying for 2 AKs or AK and JJ here.

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

BUMP...GETTING LOST DOWN THERE....

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

you think this needs more discussion? I think its a pretty clear fold.

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

Well if we put the button on AA-TT, AK,AQ and we put UTG on AA-66 we have 38% equity in the pot.

This early in the tourney I think this is enough to call, especially given I would be talbe chip leader early.

I didn't think this was a clear fold at all.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well if we put the button on AA-TT, AK,AQ and we put UTG on AA-66 we have 38% equity in the pot.

This early in the tourney I think this is enough to call, especially given I would be talbe chip leader early.

I didn't think this was a clear fold at all.

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In a $150 tournament, you have to give atleast one of them credit for an allin hand. UTG was representing aces, but that didn't scare button. They could have hands in the range you maentioned, but I don't agree with the weighting. The high end is more likely.

What were the results?

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

I call. There are lots of wackos early on in these things.

Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call. There are lots of wackos early on in these things.

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That was what probably tipped the scales for me.

After all the action behind me I cursed myself for not raising, as I would comfortably fold to a third raise from a PF limper.

From doing all the hand exercises we see here everyday and palying around with pokerstove, I *knew* I was about even money equity wise in the pot, maybe a smidge better, and there was dead $$ in the pot, so I felt I had an edge.

I also love having a big stack early.

I've also seen ludicrously stupid limp re-raises early in Supers so that helped.

I called and got lucky.

UTG had JJ
Button had AKs

No one improved.

My folding equity in the subsequent hands up until the table broke was nice too, chipped up to 5900 without a showdown over the next 3 levels.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

Sounds like UTG limper has a big hand, although it depends on the type of player you put him on. If he's solid, then he most likely has kings or aces. Beware the UTG limper.
Button prolly has a strong ace. FOLD!

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

Very interesting, the call is:
Neutral to slightly +(chip EV)
Very +(Fun EV)
but has a relatively high probability of sending you to the rails

I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)?

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

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I’m guessing you believe the call was +($ EV) as well. If I wave my magic wand and move the hand to the bubble, is it still +($ EV)?

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If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV given the amount of times I go to the rail assuming if I fold I make the $$$ every time.

I would also probably play the hand differently PF as in level 1 I'm pretty deep (80BB's), but at the bubble If I have 30BB's I'm probably in the top 10% of those left. Shorter stacks would have probably made me raise PF as I would want to know how strong I am on the cheapest street (PF), whereas with this example my "plan" was to try to extract more on later streets because I was deep enough to find out how strong I was later and still fold comfortably if behind.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

Calling 3-way, you were 46% against AK and JJ. Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%. You are not likely to see hands a lot weaker than JJ or AK here. I think this is a fairly close decision. If it is 50-50 you are not dominated, the call is about even money. I have a feeling this is cEV-, but if you want to gamble, it is probably OK.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

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If it were the bubble it would still be +CEV (chip EV), but -$EV

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I hoped you'd say that. No wait, I was afraid you'd say that. My head hurts.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

I got my "even money" stat from this:

(I can't copy from pokerstove)

QQ 35%
AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button
AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG

So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit.

I think these ranges are fair as I have seen a lot of limp re-raises with pairs down to 22 especially early, as well as AK.


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Against AA and JJ, you would have 19%.

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True, but I can't put them on that narrow of a range with the action.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
got my "even money" stat from this:

(I can't copy from pokerstove)

QQ 35%
AA-JJ AK 38.5% Button
AA-88,AK 26.5% UTG

So its pretty close and the dead $$$ tips it a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88.

I think 35% is high. However, it is hard to see that it is less than 30%. I might gamble even if it is cEV- to build a big stack.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are considering all those hands equally. That ius a faw of your mathematical analysis. AA or KK is a lot more likely than 88

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I understand what you are getting at.

That is why I left out 77-22.

Early in a Super I wouldn't discount 77-22 at all, nor AK.

If I add in 77-22 I am in very good shape.

To counterbalance the weighting effect, I left 77-22 out.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

lol. I am glad you would up against AK and JJ, and I don't think it is a terrible call, but I think your math is optimistic.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

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I think your math is optimistic.

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Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc.

Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early.

OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on :

AA-JJ AK.

QQ 32.5%
UTG 33.5%
Button 33.5%

Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call.

I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc.

Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early.

OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on :

AA-JJ AK.

QQ 32.5%
UTG 33.5%
Button 33.5%

Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call.

I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think these figures are about right. Yeah someone might have Q2. However, AA or KK are a lot more likely than JJ or AK. Not everyone calls 50xBB with JJ or AK.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]

Level 1 in a Super I have seen UTG turn over 55, 22, QJs etc.

Later in the tourney it may be optimisitc, but not early.

OK, here's the numbers putting both UTG and Button on :

AA-JJ AK.

QQ 32.5%
UTG 33.5%
Button 33.5%

Dead $$$ still tips the scales to a call.

I don't think that this range is too wide or too optimistic. In fact its far too tight.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]


Who cares if you have "seen" 22 and 55 do that? I think ur math is off and the call is wrong. You are just dominated way to often.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares if you have "seen" 22 and 55 do that? I think ur math is off and the call is wrong. You are just dominated way to often

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OK.

Here's my range for the UTG and Button that leans towards a call.

AA-JJ AK

What range do you put them on, and what is your pot equity?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my range for the UTG and Button that leans towards a call.

AA-JJ AK

What range do you put them on, and what is your pot equity?


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I would say a range of 22-AA AA-A2,AK-A2, KQ-K2, etc. But the probability is that someone has AA or KK and you are dominated.

You are a little worse than a 4-1 dog if you are getting slightly better than 2-1 pot odds, so it is not as bad as it seems, but I fold here.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

Forget ranges... With hands that arent AA or KK, they (UTG especially) push a much smaller % of the time than when they dont. A typical opponent with TT in that position will flat call far more often than he will push. Unfortunately I don't have enough of a math background to make the calculations.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

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But the probability is that someone has AA or KK and you are dominated

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What's the probability of this?

Just guessing I'd say that if we were in the $$$ it would be ~80%.

Level 1 maybe 30%?

Maybe I just don't fear limp re-raises that much.

They are being used to bluff a lot too, not even including the donk factor.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
Forget ranges... With hands that arent AA or KK, they (UTG especially) push a much smaller % of the time than when they dont. A typical opponent with TT in that position will flat call far more often than he will push. Unfortunately I don't have enough of a math background to make the calculations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't forget ranges, that's all I have to go on, unless someone shows me their hand.

I know you want to weight AA and KK heavier and I understand why, but in level 1 of a Super....its not 50%.

If the button hadn't of called, UTG would look a lot scarier.

So by now taking out 22-TT, that weights AA and KK much heavier...its not percise, but I bet its close enough not to matter..

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But the probability is that someone has AA or KK and you are dominated


[/ QUOTE ]
What's the probability of this?

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According to my math, calling is cEV- if there is more than a 50% chance you are dominated. I think this is the case.

In a $20 tournament I call.

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Maybe I just don't fear limp re-raises that much.

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It is not just the limpraise I fear. It's that fact that the button didn't fear the limpraise.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

You treat supers like 5$ tournies... Lots of good players play those too. Honestly, gambling for a big stack with QQ here isn't terrible, but I stil think it -CEV, you could argue about hourly rate and the like, but i don't know your set up.

Re: QQ Super Tuesday level 1 lots of freakin action in front
 

Button certainly doesn't need much of a hand to raise with position against multiple limpers and the first pusher doesn't have to have a super strong hand to push over the top of what is most likely a punishing the limpers type raise from the button. However when button calls his range shrinks to that of a real hand AA-JJ,AK or he's a real donk.
.

If it was me, I'd have reraised to 300 and been stuck calling the pushs. With just calling the button, I guess I don't mind a fold but I probably still call because heck it's Queens with a shot to tripple up!

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

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It's that fact that the button didn't fear the limpraise.

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I actually thought that was a good thing as I thought they both may have an A.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
You treat supers like 5$ tournies

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I find that the first hour can play a lot like a $20 due to the amount of sat qualifiers if you get the right table.

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gambling for a big stack with QQ here isn't terrible, but I stil think it -CEV

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Fair enough....but its a close gamle. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's that fact that the button didn't fear the limpraise.


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I actually thought that was a good thing as I thought they both may have an A.

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lol

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
lol

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Rose colored glasses. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously though, if button call, that probably means UTG doesn't have AA right?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
lol

[/ QUOTE ]

Rose colored glasses. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously though, if button call, that probably means UTG doesn't have AA right?

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really buy this. There's no law that says button has an A when he calls, and there's more than one A in the deck anyway.

I think this was a reasonable call although I don't know that you're right to fear UTG more than button. I've seen the reraise all-in at level 1 with a wide range of hands, but a raise followed by a call all-in still tends to mean something.

I'd like to hear more about how you play a big stack early, though. In my world, it does me little good to have a big stack on the first couple levels, because everyone is calling like donks thus making it hard to bully.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to hear more about how you play a big stack early, though. In my world, it does me little good to have a big stack on the first couple levels, because everyone is calling like donks thus making it hard to bully.

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I don't really think of accumulating early to bully early. It's about having more chips to double through wreckless players (before they bust out) in the hopes of building a truly monsterous stack that you can bully with later.