99.
 

Villain's PT notes:

{{Icon: Slightly LP preflop, but Agg postflop.
Hands: 55
VP$IP: 25
PFR: 4
W$SD: 100
Agg-Factor: 3.3}}

He took a while before calling my flop bet.

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed)

BB ($103.75)
UTG ($103.10)
MP1 ($48.50)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($30.35)
Hero ($56.25)
SB ($151.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, MP2 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($12.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($12.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>
-----

Re: 99.
 

nicely played.

Re: 99.
 

What hand are you trying to get to fold here, TT? JT maybe? What other hands could he be on here that fold and have you beat?

Re: 99.
 

I'd probably take the opportunity to check behind on the river here... hands you beat are unlikly to call you here.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably take the opportunity to check behind on the river here... hands you beat are unlikly to call you here.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto, to make this kind of move I think you need more of a read than the 55 hands you have

either more hands or something you've seen him do to make you think he can lay down a J here.

Re: 99.
 

Heh, I'm not betting for value, kids.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
either more hands or something you've seen him do to make you think he can lay down a J here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, I'd tried this move a few times when I first started playing SSNL online, and couldn't push people off their hands. I don't both playing fancy here I just check behind, the first loss is the best loss...

Re: 99.
 

He's not a fish. I think I've played with him a few times. The PT stats aren't hands I've played, they're hands form my miner. He's nothing special, but not awful.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's not a fish. I think I've played with him a few times. The PT stats aren't hands I've played, they're hands form my miner. He's nothing special, but not awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's good enough to believe your flop bet was merely a continuation bet, and that you now MUST have hit your ace and he can lay down a jack, then good play. I just think overall this sort of play is -EV at SSNL so I seldom try it.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's not a fish. I think I've played with him a few times. The PT stats aren't hands I've played, they're hands form my miner. He's nothing special, but not awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like you are best qualified to answer your own question here, as it comes down to your read on his play.

From what I know, he doesn't seem tight enough for you to make the bet, but you know more about him than me.

Re: 99.
 

I guess I just really hate checking behind and conceding the pot.

Re: 99.
 

meh, take comfort in the fact you can make thinner value bets

Re: 99.
 

I basically like it. Opponent specific, of course. I'd make it $12 though.

Re: 99.
 

Villain said, "AKo?" in the chat box, hesitated, then called with AQo. Excellent call after putting me on a hand you can't beat, lol.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain said, "AKo?" in the chat box, hesitated, then called with AQo. Excellent call after putting me on a hand you can't beat, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really expect him to fold AQo here?

Re: 99.
 

If he has me on AKo? Uh, yes.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he has me on AKo? Uh, yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one ever actually "has" you on an exact hand. The fact that he said AK off makes it even more rediculous. He was merely stating a hand that is within your range that might beat him. Only an idiot says "AKo?" and then actually folds here.

Re: 99.
 

He didn't say AKo, I put that in unconciously, and tons of people call opponent's hands before folding. Whether it be to save face when you call and lose to it or to induce a showing from your opponent, I don't know.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I just really hate checking behind and conceding the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]


i'd bet 10 or 11 and shut him out. anything less, i think, and he may want to look you up with a K or weak A.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your contribution to the thread.

Re: 99.
 

I think you should bet the pot on this flop. To coordinated and less likely to get a fold with the that bet.

River is fine against someone you think can fold but I probably make it 10 instead of 8. I think 10 and 12 accomplish the same thing so you can save 2 bucks by betting 10. I really feel the 8 bet get's called more often, maybe it's a psychological thing with it being only a single digit bet.

Re: 99.
 

I play it the same, except I bet maybe $10 on the river. Most opponents will have a J or worse and lay down.

Re: 99.
 

I dont like the river bet. Only j10 and jq might fold, and the rest of his jacks just made two pair. Granted he didnt bet the river, so his likelihood of two pair goes way down. The only better hands that fold this river are j10 and jq, and even then, sometimes players like to look you up when you check behind on the turn. He will fold his missed gutshots and then you dont get to see his hand and learn more about him. I dont like this, I check behind and concede the pot to a jack.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should bet the pot on this flop. To coordinated and less likely to get a fold with the that bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a PSB do that my $3.50 didn't? Psychological thing?

Re: 99.
 

"Protects" your "overpair/set" more. On a super draw heavy board I typically bet close to the pot on the flop when I have a hand I want to protect. Villian may view the bet as showing that you don't find your hand all that great since you aren't protecting your hand as much. Of course I vary my flop bet sizes, but in general on this type of flop I am more apt to pot it.

Re: 99.
 

Bet the turn and expect a fold. The long hesitation is nearly always extreme weakness. If you happen to be behind, you at least have outs on the turn. On the river a bluff won't have that bonus equity, nor can you expect much of a payoff if you suckout.

I don't see much point in betting the river. The general rule of thumb is to consider a bluff if you cannot win by checking, and there is no reason to believe that you can't showdown a winner here.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Protects" your "overpair/set" more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I rarely ever pot flops, with or without a set or overpair. It'll usually kill the action a 2/3rd PSB might give me, and it's nearly always enough to give them incorrect odds.


[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn and expect a fold. The long hesitation is nearly always extreme weakness. If you happen to be behind, you at least have outs on the turn. On the river a bluff won't have that bonus equity, nor can you expect much of a payoff if you suckout.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good.


[ QUOTE ]
The general rule of thumb is to consider a bluff if you cannot win by checking, and there is no reason to believe that you can't showdown a winner here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly am I beating here?

Re: 99.
 

76, 54, A8, 55, etc

Re: 99.
 

i've generally found the flop bet, turn check, river bet to have very very low folding equity.

Re: 99.
 

You honestly think a player with those stats plays these hands this way?

Re: 99.
 

You don't have enough stats to draw any conclusions about his play.

But if you want to go by that, you say he is aggressive postflop. On this hand he has not taken a single aggressive action. The most logical assumption is that he is weak.

Re: 99.
 

This is definitely a board I bet $5-$6 on the flop and $12 or so on the turn if he calls.

Re: 99.
 

I don't get why people bet the turn here, is it a value bet or a bluff? It doesn't seem to do have a good purpose.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get why people bet the turn here, is it a value bet or a bluff? It doesn't seem to do have a good purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a draw heavy board. The draws missed, a scare card came, he checked, long hesitation.. take a pick?


[ QUOTE ]
You don't have enough stats to draw any conclusions about his play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then how do you determine he'll check-call preflop and post with 76, 54, A8 and 55? Just guesses of what a typical SSNL player can have here?


[ QUOTE ]
But if you want to go by that, you say he is aggressive postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, when did I say this? I'm super tired right now so my memory may be a bit hazy. I can't find me saying he's aggressive.

Re: 99.
 

You said: "Slightly LP preflop, but Agg postflop."

I would bet the turn because I believe I need to protect my hand, and it greatly reduces the chances that I will face a tough decision on the river.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's a draw heavy board. The draws missed, a scare card came, he checked, long hesitation.. take a pick?

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't follow. The way I see it, he calls with better hands, he folds worse hands. It's good if he has a draw, but checking behind you are only giving up about 1/5 times when the draw hits on the river.

I guess if you know he doesn't have you beat it's a good bet, but from the info I have I'd wouldn't be certain enough.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's a draw heavy board. The draws missed, a scare card came, he checked, long hesitation.. take a pick?

[/ QUOTE ]

I still don't follow. The way I see it, he calls with better hands, he folds worse hands. It's good if he has a draw, but checking behind you are only giving up about 1/5 times when the draw hits on the river.

I guess if you know he doesn't have you beat it's a good bet, but from the info I have I'd wouldn't be certain enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't believe he happened to hit the K and I don't mind taking it down right there. also I want to keep my play consistent with times that I have say 56 there but want to represent the K and also keep it consistent with the times that I do have AK.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You said: "Slightly LP preflop, but Agg postflop."

[/ QUOTE ]

There it is.


[ QUOTE ]
I would bet the turn because I believe I need to protect my hand, and it greatly reduces the chances that I will face a tough decision on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That works.

Re: 99.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You honestly think a player with those stats plays these hands this way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its 55 hands bro. I'm sure even some of my 97/35/3 buddies could play 55 hands that way if they were distracted by the NFL game or something.