Is this BJ game beatable?
 

What would be the EV for the following conditions:
8 deck game
Dealer hits soft 17
Resplit up to 3 times
Double after split
Late surrender
Shuffled after 10% penetration

Pretty crappy, yes? But here's where the advantage might come in. The minimum bet is $1 and the max bet is $200.
So could a player exploit an advantage if just betting the min for the first 35 or so cards and then betting $200 if the count is positive? Could someone run the numbers on this?

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

I don't have any numbers, but that sounds like a pretty shitty game. Any 8-deck game would need very favorable rules.

Edit: You're describing the rules of the new Party bj game. Do you honestly think that Party would offer a +EV casino game without bonuses?

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

10% penetration is 41 cards -- if 40 were dealt, and you could get the next hand -- the max single level running count you could have is +40 ~= true count 5.5

How many times have you seen a running count of 40? In the first deck?

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

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So could a player exploit an advantage if just betting the min for the first 35 or so cards and then betting $200 if the count is positive?

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No.

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

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I don't have any numbers, but that sounds like a pretty shitty game. Any 8-deck game would need very favorable rules.

Edit: You're describing the rules of the new Party bj game. Do you honestly think that Party would offer a +EV casino game without bonuses?

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I don't think they tell you when they shuffle, so there's no way to know when to restart your count.

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
What would be the EV for the following conditions:
8 deck game
Dealer hits soft 17
Resplit up to 3 times
Double after split
Late surrender
Shuffled after 10% penetration

Pretty crappy, yes? But here's where the advantage might come in. The minimum bet is $1 and the max bet is $200.
So could a player exploit an advantage if just betting the min for the first 35 or so cards and then betting $200 if the count is positive? Could someone run the numbers on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

trying to beat party's new prize pig huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

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I don't think they tell you when they shuffle, so there's no way to know when to restart your count.

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Seems like they would want to go out of their way to tell you when they reshuffle, otherwise why even have 10% penetration online when you can just reshuffle everyhand? They are purposely exploiting wannabe card counters who don't understand the difference between a true count and running count. So I expect party to make a lot from people who will be making a lot of $1 bets and a few $200 bets and not understand why they are "getting so unlucky."

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

Yes, I am talking about Party's new crapjack game. I know it's total garbage, but I was just wondering if someone could run the numbers on this situation? I'd have to think that with an infinite betting spread that any blackjack game is beatable, no matter how bad the conditions, if at any point there is a favorable situation. Whether it's worth the time, energy, or bankroll is a matter of personal preference, but is there any one out there who could just run a simulation and tell me what sort of things would be required for this 1-200 betting spread? And what the expectation would be?

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

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I don't have any numbers, but that sounds like a pretty shitty game. Any 8-deck game would need very favorable rules.

Edit: You're describing the rules of the new Party bj game. Do you honestly think that Party would offer a +EV casino game without bonuses?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think they tell you when they shuffle, so there's no way to know when to restart your count.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the press release.

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I am talking about Party's new crapjack game. I know it's total garbage, but I was just wondering if someone could run the numbers on this situation? I'd have to think that with an infinite betting spread that any blackjack game is beatable, no matter how bad the conditions, if at any point there is a favorable situation. Whether it's worth the time, energy, or bankroll is a matter of personal preference, but is there any one out there who could just run a simulation and tell me what sort of things would be required for this 1-200 betting spread? And what the expectation would be?

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I'd say the best place for an accurate house or player advantage % would be to contact WizardOfOdds.

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

I'm no blackjack expect so take this with a pinch of salt. I put your settings through BlackJack Audit. However, it would only let me do a 1-99 bet spread. This was using a Uston Advanced P/M counting system. It resulted in 0.5 % house edge. However, I got a lower house edge (0.3%) using a standard spread, so I could have made a mistake. Without counting, the house edge came out at around 0.6%.

With 10% penetration, we get a count of 2 exactly 0.022% of the time!!!

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

Keep in mind that your bankroll should allow for 100x max bets. Spreading 1-200 requires a 20K bankroll. Of course you can come in for less, but that increases your Risk of Ruin.

This game seems like a waste of time. Assuming you do see a +2 count (giving you about a .5% advantage) your only going to earn $1 on your $200 bet.
Believe me a count of +2/+3 won't come along often with only 10% pen.

Re: Is this BJ game beatable?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Keep in mind that your bankroll should allow for 100x max bets. Spreading 1-200 requires a 20K bankroll. Of course you can come in for less, but that increases your Risk of Ruin.

This game seems like a waste of time. Assuming you do see a +2 count (giving you about a .5% advantage) your only going to earn $1 on your $200 bet.
Believe me a count of +2/+3 won't come along often with only 10% pen.

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I can see it now. Make $1 bets for 6 hours. Finally a +2 true count! Bet 200. You get 17, dealer shows 10. Stand. Dealer has 20. shuffle.