I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

In a game where the players are semi-decent and can think at a decent level.

Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button

UTG + 1 limps, MP1 limps, MP3 limps, CO limps, Hero raises, BB calls, called around.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG+ 1 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero ?

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

Again it really depends on how aggressive the flop bettor was. The Ace [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a nice card to have in this spot, in addition to your other draws. Hate to be 3-be, love to see the river for free, if necessary.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I'd just call. I'm folding to a non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or non A or K on the turn. Too many opponents to try to muscle it out for me ...

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I'd raise trying for free card.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

Agree with bretterbutter. Raise/call depending on how likely it is you'll get a free card and won't be 3bet.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a game where the players are semi-decent and can think at a decent level.

Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button

UTG + 1 limps, MP1 limps, MP3 limps, CO limps, Hero raises, BB calls, called around.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG+ 1 checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

With the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in my hand, I raise here for a free card play.

How many outs?
 

Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote for 6.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote for 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, three 10's are certainly good. BD flush is another, and I"d say we can discount the a's and k's to 1.5 each? Seems likely they could both/either be dirty and you're reverse domiated, but I'm not sure its so likely they're both dirty(?)

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote for 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 6?

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

While you probably still have 3 Ace outs your King outs are probably worthless. So what is a backdoor nut flush worth to you? Given your description of the other players, even with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would fold here.

Raising the flop accomplishes nothing. MP1 bet here knowing that you were the preflop raiser so he either doesn't care if you raise (e.g. he's got a big draw and he's building the pot) or he wants you to (e.g. he's got top pair and wants to reraise to thin the field).

Calling the flop doesn't help much either: MP1 got two callers, so it seems to me that you aren't the only guy with a heart or two in your hand, so you probably have fewer flush outs than you think. If a heart comes on the turn, it may prove quite expensive to chase your draw to the river.

Overall, your outs are either tainted or fewer than yout think. Fold here.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I vote for 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why 6?

[/ QUOTE ]

Overs = 4 outs
BDFD = 1.5 outs
BDSD = 0.5 outs

Re: How many outs?
 

Bd nut frush - 1.5
Bd 2 gapper str8 - 0.5
A's discounted - 2.0
K's discounted - 1.0

So, 5.0. I discounted the A's & K's so much cuz of reverse domination and the str8 possiblities for the K.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

Nice.

Change the flop to T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and talk to me again.

Re: How many outs?
 

Why do you think the overs are worth 4 instead of 3? With the J10 on the flop I would assume that reverse domination comes into play as A10 and KJ are hands that could possible be in play.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

Raising is intuitively correct with a decent chance at a free card. This is a big pot and you have strong overs and some backdoor potential. If you insist on calculating outs, your aces are worth 2, kings are 1.5+ (Kh is a good card for you), and backdoor draws are at least 1.5. You don't have to worry so much about being trapped by turned/rivered draws because you have excellent position. Use it.

I only like calling if you're convinced that overcard outs are dead or too difficult to play for against this field. In any case, folding is silly.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the first flop, I'd say around 4 - 4.5:

1.5 - for the overcard As
.5 - for the overcard Ks (since the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is dirty, and they might complete straights)
1.5 - for the BDFD
.5-1 - for the BDSD (since the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are dirty)

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
With the J10 on the flop I would assume that reverse domination comes into play as A10 and KJ are hands that could possible be in play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there a 100% chance that one of these hands is out?

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps we should start by talking about how many outs we're giving our hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

nut flush draw: 1.5
nut straight draw: 0.5 - 1
A (discounted for reverse domination): 1.5 - 2
K (discounted for reverse domination, straight making, and possibly dirty K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]): 0.5

Getting 15-1, you have to see another card, but the board is so draw-heavy that you're probably not the only one who'd like to see a free card. Since none of your overcard outs are clean, you'd really prefer to go runner-runner straight/flush and I'm not sure paying the extra flop bet to *maybe* buy a free river card is worth it. I would call the flop and fold the turn UI.

Re: How many outs?
 

With the original description given of the players, these seem to be reasonable hands to put them on. The assumption I use from SSH is that overcards start off being worth 3 outs and then you adjust from there. Is this how you figure overcard outs, or is there something I am missing that would make me value these outs more?

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

how anyone could advocate folding here is beyond me.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nice.

Change the flop to T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

and talk to me again.

[/ QUOTE ]

K is now worth ~ 2 outs w/o straight potential but you lost your BDSD(which was a 2 gapper anyway) so i think what you gained in the less tainted king you gave up in the BDSD(which being a two gapper i only alotted .5 outs to anyway).

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I think it's a pretty easy call. This pot is just way too big to fold.

As far as call vs. raise...by "semi-decent" I'm thinking MP1 is betting into a large field vs. check/raising considering his relative position to you means a vast majority of the time he's got:

1) A draw or pair+draw that with 3 callers and no raise he's likely to just bet again on the turn.
2) A big hand that you're getting 3-bet with.
3) A really big hand that he may call the flop raise with but lead the turn to keep opponents trapped.

I doubt it's anything like Tx that you would want to raise. But then maybe I'm giving too much credit to "semi decent".

Also, while the free card is appealing (and I agree if the chances of getting it are decent then a raise is OK) so is paying just 1 SB to see the turn card and turn action to you.

Did I mention folding is bad?

Chief

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

I can't see how anyone would even consider folding. IMO folding is not an option. I like a call, but I do wonder if a raise would clean up any top pair outs that we might have. IF it can get a couple of early position folds, then a riase could very well help us a lot in this hand

OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

This hand came from Middle Limit Holdem Poker from Ciaffone and Brier.

I tried to represent "Middle Limit" by saying "decent players thinking at a decent level"...I hope that did it justice as I have no true feel for it since I've not played something like 15/30 or 20/40 before.

Anyway:

Here it is from page 13:

"The last possibility of a tainted board-card we will discuss is with overcards. Be aware of situations when pairing an overcard makes a possible straight. Here is an example. You raise on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after several opponents have limped, and wind up with four callers (whoops…I made it 5..that could make a difference). The flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A player in MP bets and there are 2 callers. What do you do? We believe you should fold. The deciding factor is that king you are trying to pair may give someone with a AJ a very big smile, since they would not hold the nut straight. If you change the board by making the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], a call is now reasonable, since none of your outs are tainted by a straight-making possibility for the opponents."

This sounded weak to me, so I wanted to throw it out here for discussion.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, you know what I meant.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
While you probably still have 3 Ace outs your King outs are probably worthless. So what is a backdoor nut flush worth to you? Given your description of the other players, even with the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I would fold here.

Raising the flop accomplishes nothing. MP1 bet here knowing that you were the preflop raiser so he either doesn't care if you raise (e.g. he's got a big draw and he's building the pot) or he wants you to (e.g. he's got top pair and wants to reraise to thin the field).

Calling the flop doesn't help much either: MP1 got two callers, so it seems to me that you aren't the only guy with a heart or two in your hand, so you probably have fewer flush outs than you think. If a heart comes on the turn, it may prove quite expensive to chase your draw to the river.

Overall, your outs are either tainted or fewer than yout think. Fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

In the words of DJ Shadow, Break it down now.

Why are his king outs useless? This is a classic HEPFAP situation in which my opponents are more likely to have my ace outs reverse-dominated rather than my kings. A pair of kings will win here often. And what is a backdoor flush draw worth to me? 1.5 outs. You have no reason yet to believe anyone has hearts; the range of hands that an Unknown might donkbet this flop with is too wide.

Next. Both your situations are very likely. However, given the PF action, I would venture to say this table is fairly passive. There is a good chance raising will give us a free card. And if he and everyone else is drawing, then we have the best hand right?

Next. Calling in this spot is an equally viable option. No one is folding to our raise in this huge pot. We can assume this given the read of "semi-decent players." They know how to calculate pot odds. And flop overcalls mean nothing. People always find reasons to call. I have a lot of weak draws combined on this flop, and the pot is huge. You know what that means? Equity edge.

Next. If a heart comes on the turn, it's not how much I pay to draw that counts; it's the odds the pot lays me. If I hit my draw, I win here almost always.

Folding is, by far, the worst option of the 3.

EDIT: I may have given K outs too much credit, since they complete the 9TQJ straight. However, if you spike a K, the action will easily dictate whether or not your K is good.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, you know what I meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i certainly don`t know what you mean.

Re: How many outs?
 

9T hits good limpers in so many ways. Either straight draws, two pair, a hand that has you reverse dominated like A9 and add to that there is a flush draw. I would fold without the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. With it I'd say you have no more than something like 3 outs. Why is there a bet and two calls, no raise? I smell a trap here.

Re: How many outs?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, three 10's are certainly good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you calling a ten an out?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha, you know what I meant.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Others might not, though and the distinction needs to be made.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

thanks for the good moderation.

i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them.

but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way).

a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

You mean someone with QJ is smiling? Because you're looking pretty good against AJ unless I misread something.

Someone could be smiling with TTT now too but I doubt it.

Having a 2 SB less pot does make a bit of a difference. But I still call.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

[ QUOTE ]
You mean someone with QJ is smiling? Because you're looking pretty good against AJ unless I misread something.

Someone could be smiling with TTT now too but I doubt it.

Having a 2 SB less pot does make a bit of a difference. But I still call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap...that's right. QJ...typo.

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes this a much more interesting hand because your opponents now have gutshots instead of OESD's.

I think that taking the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] out of the picture increases the value of your King outs (from 0 to 2 say), but I think that it also increases the chances that MP1 is betting a TP hand (rather than a draw) which makes me start to wonder about your Ace outs.

Then there's those pesky callers. With what kind of preflop-limp hand does a thinking player call a a 10-high, 2-suited flop bet with a preflop raiser yet to act? A made hand (TP) would almost certainly raise, so they're probably still drawing but collectively, they're drawing to almost half of the deck. Their possible hands include: overcards + gutshot, flush, gutshot + flush draw, OESD, Straight Flush draw, overcards + flush - did I miss any?

So you've got position, but you're probably behind and your opponents have a lot of outs (i.e. any card between a 7 and a King/Ace).

With the exception of the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I'm having a hard time thinking of a turn card that you'll be happy to see.

Raising the flop will (possibly) push out the gutshot draws, but not the flush draws. TP is either calling or reraising (depending upon his kicker) so he's staying put and a mix draw (overcards + gutshot) is probably calling too. So I think that a raise is still wrong.

If you call and hit an Ace, King or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], there's good chance that the turn will be bet and raised before it even gets to you so even when you hit a happy card, you'll be faced with an unhappy result.

The pot's big, and has the potential to get huge, but you're begging for a second best hand here. You're going to have to fold this on the turn or the river the majority of the time anyway, fold now. (but it's a much closer decision than with the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

Change the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I'm (probably) raising the flop.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the good moderation.

i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them.

but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way).

a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were my thoughts exactly. At first I hated it, then I started to think it was pretty close. I thought the raise was the worst choice.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

Hi QTip,

I don't have MLHP yet (but I'm going to buy it when I visit Vegas for the first time in my life in July, though [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]), but I regularly read the "Poker Quiz" on Cardplayer.com with examples from the book. In today's quiz there was a situation similar to those you've shown. I know they are not identical and there are some important differences, but maybe it adds something to the discussion. I post it here and I hope I'm not breaking any copywright laws:

[ QUOTE ]
Question


A $30-$60 game. You are in the cutoff seat with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Everyone folds to the player on your right, who opens with a raise. You reraise, since he could be raising light, and you want to isolate him with position and a good playing hand. The button calls the three bets cold. Everyone folds to the preflop raiser, who calls. There is $320 in the pot and three players. The flop comes: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving you a backdoor nut flush-draw in addition to your two overcards. The original raiser checks and you check. The button bets. The preflop raiser calls. What do you do?


Answer


Fold. There is $380 in the pot and it costs you $30 to take off a card. A player who calls three bets cold and then bets a flop like this one will usually have K-K, Q-Q, J-J, or maybe an ace-king suited. Against K-K you have three outs, a 15-to-1 shot. Against Q-Q, you have six outs, a 7-to-1 shot. Against J-J, you have no outs other than backdoor diamonds with the board not pairing. Against ace-king suited, you are playing for a tie unless you make a backdoor flush. There is also a third player in the hand, who may have something that cripples your chances of improving. Finally, you may catch a card that gives you the best hand, but then get redrawn at the river. There are too many situations where you are playing with hardly any outs. In the other scenarios, where you do have a sufficient number of outs to play on, they are only to a pair, which may not hold up as the best hand anyway once all the board-cards are out.

[/ QUOTE ]
http://www.cardplayer.com/pokerquiz.php

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 

1. What hands are his (thinking!) opponents holding that they will limp with preflop and call a flop bet on this board? Clearly, they all have a piece of this.

2. We don't have to assume that anyone has a heart (or hearts), but you certainly have to consider it don't you?

3. Why are you assuming that the table is passive? All we were told is that they were thinking players. There are many holdings that an agressive player(s) could have here where calling would be correct and normal. - Particularly if they are assuming that our (agressive) hero will be raising.

4. Do we have the best hand right now? What happens if the turn brings anything from an 8 to an ace? Is our hand still the best?

5. If you call the flop, what are the chances that you'll have to fold the turn anyway?

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the good moderation.

i read the book atm and i was a bit surprised at that point too. in general i like the suggestions, but at some points i would like some more calls and raises. this is one of them.

but after some more thoughts, a conservative calculation would be to count our hand for 3.5 - 4 outs and some reversed implied odds. probably a fold is a better play than most of us (me included) would think at the first moment. at least it is very marginal (either way).

a raise doesn't look good to me btw. the chance that it fails plus the (strong) possibility of a 3-bet are good reasons against it.

[/ QUOTE ]

These were my thoughts exactly. At first I hated it, then I started to think it was pretty close. I thought the raise was the worst choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great thread. My first thought on reading the hand was to pop it. Getting 15-1 against a big field, if your BDFD comes through, you are probably going to reaaly whip someobody with a smaller flush.

But after reading the thread, a thought that crossed my mind, is that the table is going to go nuts if a card like the K, Q, J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls. Probably end up paying mulitple bets to see the river... which yeah, means you are drawing to 5 or 6 outs as opposed to the comfortable 9.

So even the BDFD is pretty tainted, because those times you make a real draw on the turn, you are locked in to the river. Also the fourth hart on the river, will probably kill all the action. So bascially you get to spend this entire hand putting in a crapload of chips as an underdog.

Think I'll go buy this book.

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Think I'll go buy this book.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great! Get it today, and we can read it at the same time!