K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

First hand, no reads.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero folds.

I'm getting odds for a gutshot, if I didn't discount them because of the flush potential. I could also split the pot with another king as well. Good fold? I found that some of my weaknesses were calling on the flop without proper odds and without discounting appropriately, so I'm making a conscious effort to notice these plays and really think them through.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

Easy fold.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

easy fold,
if your posts are getting less than 5 replies, try posting fewer but more difficult to play hands
cdl

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

Super-easy fold.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

you have to fold, your gutshot isn't that good considering it could complete a flush. Pot is small as well.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

Ya, even I fold this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again? or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

i understand that it's good to discount outs and all that, but we're talking about one small bet here people. and the pot is getting bigger...

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

10-1? Sweet Jesus, call that thing.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

Looks standard.

You have to discount your outs for the gutshot somewhat. ALso the possibility of a chop pot and you're probably not going to win by speaking either a K or 5.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again? or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

i understand that it's good to discount outs and all that, but we're talking about one small bet here people. and the pot is getting bigger...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd call it too. After discounting the king outs for a split/flush, we're still getting implied odds with our excellent relative position. If this is a fold, it's certainly not an easy one.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

I agree with Redd. Super-easy fold is a huge exaggeration. I think it's a slim call. How many outs do you guys want to discount this to? You can't go less than 3, and with 3 you only have to make up a couple BBs. You have two streets worth of betting and at least 4 opponents with which to make up well more than you need.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again? or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

i understand that it's good to discount outs and all that, but we're talking about one small bet here people. and the pot is getting bigger...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, plus it's a *real disaster* to be chopping a pot with four players putting money into it...

A flop call is fine. It's by no means a spectacular call (you discount your queen of flush and worry about the flush redraw if you hit your hand on the turn), but it's not a super-easy fold. This is a gambling situation. After 7 people see the flop and there are two callers before it gets to you, I don't mind taking the gamble. You have the added bonus of being in pretty good relative position to the flop bettor, and excellent position to EVERYONE.

Or you can fold it. You're not taking or leaving very much at all.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

I'm also not calling the fold a foregone conclusion, but it's my line for sure. The Qc is trouble - UTG, MP2, or MP3 could plausibly be on the flush draw - and with T, J, Q, and A on the board, are we really going to get much action from anyone with whom we're not chopping? At 0.50/1, maybe. The odds are right on the line (10-1), but after discounting the Qc, and factoring in the possibility of the chop . . . I'm out.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's seven handed. There's a 60% chance that there's a second king out there.



[/ QUOTE ]or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, it's seven handed. Calculating the odds here is almost impossible without resorting to a Monte Carlo simulation, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone were on a flush draw 2 times out of 3 here. Not saying whether this is a call/fold decision since I think it's a bit close, but dismissing them outright isn't a good idea.

Pax and I are working on trying to figure out the exact probability here, but it may be a while. As a hopeless math geek this interests me for some sadistic reason; I'll come back with results.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pax and I are working on trying to figure out the exact probability here, but it may be a while. As a hopeless math geek this interests me for some sadistic reason; I'll come back with results.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought we were just doing this for fun [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

What I came up with : There are 55 remaining combinations of 2 clubs, and 1176 possible preflop hands. The chance of an individual not having 2 clubs is 1-[55/1176] = 95.32%, and the chance of all 6 Villains not having 2 clubs is 95.32%^6.

By my math, there is a 75.007% chance that no one is holding two clubs here.

Even if absolutely no one else had a club, the chance of the 7th person getting two clubs is still only 9.24% [(11/35)*(10/34)].

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

this ought to be folded IMO since we need to much to go right (no other K, Q of not clubs, no river club, not c/r)

i'd rather pick a better battle.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

I'm glad i don't have to do that math at the table... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think I would fold personally but that's just because I don't have super confidence in my postflop play.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

I'm amazed that no one has suggested that we RAISE here. No one's really shown any strength so far and we're very likely to pick up a freecard against opponents this passive. We can also fold out any Kings to keep the pot to ourselves. I fold this approximately never, and don't know that raising is the best option, but I'm shocked it hasn't even been whispered about yet.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

You have 3 clear outs and you are getting 10 to 1. Not enough even with implied odds cause even if you hit your card, you might split the pot many times. I fold.
If I raised the flop and I got reraised by a flush draw, or a made straight, that would suck really hard. Besides I don't think hero has equity to raise.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm amazed that no one has suggested that we RAISE here. No one's really shown any strength so far and we're very likely to pick up a freecard against opponents this passive. We can also fold out any Kings to keep the pot to ourselves. I fold this approximately never, and don't know that raising is the best option, but I'm shocked it hasn't even been whispered about yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are certainly not ahead of the bettor right here, and if we raise, we make it a 1:4 for us to hit a hand that will hit (assume our Q outs are squeaky clean) 1:10.8 times, it is just simply very unprofitable.

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

My God what is wrong with me.

I'm now in the process of creating a code library to help answer questions like this. Anyway, here's the first fruit of this labor: how often someone will be on a flush draw given how many of a suit you have and how many are in the hand. I'm assuming any two cards right now, so real world results will be significantly different since people like to play sooted, but they're not staying in with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or whatever. I'm using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10 million hands, good enough to get it to 2 sig digits or so, as if you needed it.

http://www.ethelthefrog.net/sa/flush-draw-odds.png

So in the given hand, we have no clubs and we're 7 handed: There's about a 28% chance of someone having being on a flush draw. That's a lot less than I thought!

How many if people like to play sooted? I dunno yet, but the tighter people play, the loewr this figure will be. More testing required!

Re: K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision
 

Poker Analyzer says that against 7 random hands if we hit the straight on the turn and a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits the river we:

23% win outright

34% split 50/50

13% Split 3 ways

28% lose

So with all those other callers potentially having a king and the two flush I don't see how we can make money by calling this flop. If you do hit on the turn it's almost a 50% chance that someone will hit with you and will be raising. Then if the [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits the river you're really out some money if someone had been calling all the raises on the turn.

IMO, the only way this would be a call on the flop is if we were using both our hole cards for the gutshot. That would improve things a lot.