I need PROOF!
 

Ok I am tired of everyone saying that a 40% ROI is possible over an indefinite length of time. There is no way I buy this. I have never even heard of a single poster on this forum who has claimed a 30%+ for a 1000 tourney sample (at any level). If anyone can give me a screenshot of SNG/Poker tracker with a 1000+ tourney sample and any ROI above 30% I would greatly appreciate it.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

At what levels?

I am sure 30% is sustainable at the party $11s for any good player following Aleo's basic guidelines...

You asked for proof of which I have none (yet), but once I complete my 1000 games I will let you know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: I need PROOF!
 

What makes you think that everyone in this forum supports the claim that 40% ROI is attainable over an indefinite amount of time?

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Oh yay, another ROI discussion.

Where exactly are you getting these numbers? You said nobody here has claimed to reach this target, so who has?

Re: I need PROOF!
 

"I am sure 30% is sustainable at the party $11s for any good player following Aleo's basic guidelines..."

Nope.

OP:
40%?? Sure it's possible at the $11s. Just that all the people that could do it make more playing higher stakes. So in short, no one has done it since it's not worthwhile.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yay, another ROI discussion.

Where exactly are you getting these numbers? You said nobody here has claimed to reach this target, so who has?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am just saying that a bunch of people seem to think 40% is possible yet nobody has ever come close to achieving it. I am positive that 30% is possible and I was merely wondering if anyone can prove that they have accomplished this.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

I posted this earlier today in response to an O8 ROI thread.

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, if you get anywhere close to 50% long-term playing the O8 11's, you're wasting your time. That's part of the reason the argument about the max attainable NLHE ROI at the 11's is unresolved, and usually treated in a highly theoretical manner. No one with the skill to beat the 11's for a huge ROI won't be able to make tons more money by moving up to the 33's or 109's, even if their [ROI] drops.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW you'll get your 30%-through-1000 screen shot. I'm sure someone's done that.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Honestly, I don't see why it matters. It shouldn't affect your play in any way. If people are claiming 40% but are actually getting 30%, more power to them.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

I forget who, but somebody posted that they did 38 or 39% over more than a 1000 games a while back.

I believe Lorinda has done over 40% for a lot of games, but I don't know how many. I doubt you'll get a screenshot of her records.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

30% is definitle attainable. I play mostly $50+$5 SNGs and have a ROI of 26% so far this month (all be it only 317 tournies). If I hit the magic 40% by the time I get to 1000 games, I'll let you know. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

(If I knew how to attach files to posts I'd show you)

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't see why it matters. It shouldn't affect your play in any way. If people are claiming 40% but are actually getting 30%, more power to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is why... I have been playing a strategy in SnGs that is a bit different from normal 2+2 style (at the $22s). It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that (actually it isn't really a 'strategy' at all). I have been teetering around 30% after 775 tournaments (although a 16 OOTM streak dropped me off a bit yesterday). I wanted to see if anyone could prove to me that they have achieved this and then I could check their back posts and see if they were doing anything similar to me.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

As long as you strategy doesn't involve overcalling two all-in bets with AQo in Level 2 and a lot of bubble folding, I see no reason why you couldn't have a 30% long-term ROI at the 22's. A good player can leverage the great implied odds you can get in the early rounds when the stacks are 50BB, open up playing a lot of hands early on, and probably do quite well at it.

Read my post...
 

No one has proof because it's not worthwhile staying down there to 'prove' it, when you could make alot more playing higher up.

"I have been teetering around 30% after 775 tournaments"

This is just silly. Move to the $55s.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

I love this post and the responses so far.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, I don't see why it matters. It shouldn't affect your play in any way. If people are claiming 40% but are actually getting 30%, more power to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is why... I have been playing a strategy in SnGs that is a bit different from normal 2+2 style (at the $22s). It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that (actually it isn't really a 'strategy' at all). I have been teetering around 30% after 775 tournaments (although a 16 OOTM streak dropped me off a bit yesterday). I wanted to see if anyone could prove to me that they have achieved this and then I could check their back posts and see if they were doing anything similar to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

while i'm fine with you questioning what is acheivable and what is not, your reasoning of why you are questioning it is pretty absurd.

as for my stats, when i threw out my original database, i had about 500 games with a 43 or 44 roi. my newer database of 10s has 179 games at a ROI of 43.22 at the 10s, while my main database has 16 games at a 53.41 ROI. so while i can't give a screenshot for those first 500 or so, my overall stats stand at 700ish and a roi of just about 43%. do note that that puts up a profit of like $3.3k. there is just basically no reason on earth that a player should play a ton of 10s if they are killing them unless they have to take out their whole bankroll for some reason.

citanul

Re: I need PROOF!
 

fwiw, my results over the 513 22s that i have on record in my archive is only a 31% ROI. =(

citanul

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]

(If I knew how to attach files to posts I'd show you)

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Hit the print screen button (Prt Scr).

2. Open Paint, go to edit and select paste and save the file to the desktop.

3. Type in free image hosting in google and find a free server to post your pic.

4. Post it here as an image.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

How did you get the moderator job with such a lousy ROI at the $22s?!?

Re: Read my post...
 

[ QUOTE ]
No one has proof because it's not worthwhile staying down there to 'prove' it, when you could make alot more playing higher up.

"I have been teetering around 30% after 775 tournaments"

This is just silly. Move to the $55s.

[/ QUOTE ]


A LOT of what I do is knowing the 'average' player at the $22s. It may be a lot different in the 55s and the implied odds won't be in my favor as much early game. Plus I just want to finish this 1000 as a personal goal. Also it is nice how little variance comes with ~30% ROI.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that (actually it isn't really a 'strategy' at all).

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect you just don't understand what ICM means (which is OK, btw). First, ICM is not a "strategy". Second, anyone who has a strong ROI over long enough samples, is "using" some form of ICM, or a similar model, wheather knowingly or not.

As for having a style that is "a bit different" than normal 2+2 style, well, surprise, but there is no 2+2 style. There is an approach to the game and for many basic situations which you might call "2+2 style" maybe, which is nowadays basically the ICM oriented bubble/ITM game, but you must understand that people can be (winning) 2+2ers and still play rather differently, especially in early levels.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
How did you get the moderator job with such a lousy ROI at the $22s?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's my warm personality.

citanul

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
How did you get the moderator job with such a lousy ROI at the $22s?!?

[/ QUOTE ]

He was dumping chips to Mason in those games [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: I need PROOF!
 

ps. I suck at poker and haven't been close to 30% since leaving the $11s.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that It has nothing to do with ICM or anything like that (actually it isn't really a 'strategy' at all).

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect you just don't understand what ICM means (which is OK, btw). First, ICM is not a "strategy". Second, anyone who has a strong ROI over long enough samples, is "using" some form of ICM, or a similar model, wheather knowingly or not.

As for having a style that is "a bit different" than normal 2+2 style, well, surprise, but there is no 2+2 style. There is an approach to the game and for many basic situations which you might call "2+2 style" maybe, which is nowadys basically the ICM oriented bubble/ITM game, but you must understant that people can be (winning) 2+2ers and still play rather differently, especially in early levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just saying I don't do the actual math or check HHs with eastbay's program. ICM is valid when it comes to open pushing which is obviously a huge part of STT play, I think it would benefit me in the future to do so. I said "it has nothing to do with ICM" because the difference in my style come from my play in the early game... I agree with most of the late game play which is advocated on this forum.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I said "it has nothing to do with ICM" because the difference in my style come from my play in the early game.

[/ QUOTE ]

The play in the early game usually has very little or actually nothing to do with ICM (for most normal considerations, that is).

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Playing real tight or real loose?

Seeing a lot of cheap flops with stuff like 97?

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

How did you get the moderator job with such a lousy ROI at the $22s?!?

[/ QUOTE ] it's my warm personality.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROTFLMAO....I love you man.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

(If I knew how to attach files to posts I'd show you)

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Hit the print screen button (Prt Scr).

2. Open Paint, go to edit and select paste and save the file to the desktop.

3. Type in free image hosting in google and find a free server to post your pic.

4. Post it here as an image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. On other message boards you can upload a picture file directly, and I didn't see an option for that. I guess it has to go on the web then. Pah, can't be bothered...you'll just have to believe me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Disturbing avatar. Do you know who the fighters are?

Re: I need PROOF!
 

My first 700 $215s had my ROI at about 38%. It's obvious this is an abberation and not possible to sustain. Since then my ROI has obviously dropped down quite a bit. The moral of the story is that just because youve been acheiving something after 500 sit and gos, doesnt mean you will after 1000-2000.

500-700 sit and gos are a very small sample size...much smaller than people think. You always want to believe that your results actually are legitimate and that maybe you can acheive a 30+ ROI, but most of the time you have just been lucky.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Yes but.

First off, I'm sure you don't mean your post to insult me or anything like that, just to point out a flaw in the reasoning of my stats.

Secondly, I clearly don't personally care what my ROI is or care to brag about it or anything like that.

Thirdly, I was just giving my stats as a "I'm close to 1000 games with these, so maybe they'll satisfy the raving guy in the corner" type of thing, not as a "check out my cock" sort of thing.

Fourthly, the point of my post I guess was that 1000 games isn't really so many either. If I can have 700 games at 44% or whatever, surely it's not that unreasonable that my next 300 could be on some kind of heater too. If someone wanted to be "sure" they had a ROI over 40, they'd probably want to have a sample in the multiple thousands of games, not just 1000.

Lastly, I believe that at the 10s and 20s at least, 30+ is very very attainable. If someone made a large enough payment to me to make me care about it (aka, replace the lost income, I'd go and play them just to get the stats. But no one's going to do that.

I'm sure there's other completely capable of generating great stats at the 10s and 20s players out there, and like me, they have very little to compell them to play those games for large samples.

citanul

Re: I need PROOF!
 

citanul I wasnt responding to you was responding to original poster!!! I sometimes hit the reply button under another response.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
citanul I wasnt responding to you was responding to original poster!!! I sometimes hit the reply button under another response.

[/ QUOTE ]

gotcha. i didn't mean to come off as angry or anything like that, just trying to be informative for a change [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

citanul

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I am tired of everyone saying that a 40% ROI is possible over an indefinite length of time. There is no way I buy this. I have never even heard of a single poster on this forum who has claimed a 30%+ for a 1000 tourney sample (at any level). If anyone can give me a screenshot of SNG/Poker tracker with a 1000+ tourney sample and any ROI above 30% I would greatly appreciate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen a few players state this for the lower levels and it is entirely believable. I mean, do you really think that if Curtains, Raptor, Adanthar (name any other top player) wanted to slum on the 11s, they couldn't be over 30%? I hate to get involved in this because it turns into an e-penis measuring contest. I know for a fact that an ROI over 30% at the 11s is possible from personal experience. I don't say this to brag, because if I was any good at poker I wouldn't be playing the 11s. (That and I used my B/R for stuff like building a deck, going on vacations, etc and I was content with the steady extra money with low variance while learning to play.) Obviously I understand that a player at the 50s with an ROI of 8% is better than me, so I'm not bragging, just answering your question. I don't use Pokertracker, so I can't "prove" this with a screenshot. (I also don't care to prove it, since again, it's not anything to be proud of or anything.) I suppose if someone wanted to look up one of my screennames on Pokerprophecy they could see my ITM and do the math.

But anyway, Lorinda has stated that 40% is attainable on the 11s and it is totally believable. (Not that I am or was at 40% at any time.) To say that 30% is not attainable long term at the 11s is similar to claiming that the earth is flat, IMO.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

Honestly I don't know if I could get a 30% ROI 8 tabling the $22s or $33s, but I could be wrong. The $11s I think there's a decent chance.

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]

Honestly I don't know if I could get a 30% ROI 8 tabling the $22s or $33s, but I could be wrong. The $11s I think there's a decent chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

is 8 tabling the new 4 tabling?

Re: I need PROOF!
 

1 or 2 tabling, YOU could hit 30% on the 11s in your sleep.

I don't really see how 30% is so unbelievable for someone playing the 11s. I mean, 20% should be attainable by anyone just not making horrible mistakes.

Seriously, I talk all the time about my shortcomings and I was in the 30s. Its the 11s for crying out loud!

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok I am tired of everyone saying that a 40% ROI is possible over an indefinite length of time. There is no way I buy this. I have never even heard of a single poster on this forum who has claimed a 30%+ for a 1000 tourney sample (at any level). If anyone can give me a screenshot of SNG/Poker tracker with a 1000+ tourney sample and any ROI above 30% I would greatly appreciate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody that smart would be that stupid. If you catch my drift.

eastbay

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody that smart would be that stupid. If you catch my drift.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

Re: I need PROOF!
 

[ QUOTE ]
1 or 2 tabling, YOU could hit 30% on the 11s in your sleep.

I don't really see how 30% is so unbelievable for someone playing the 11s. I mean, 20% should be attainable by anyone just not making horrible mistakes.

Seriously, I talk all the time about my shortcomings and I was in the 30s. Its the 11s for crying out loud!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think being in the 30s for the $11s is hard to beleive, as I said I wouldn't be shocked if I could do it. I'm not sure if I could longterm in the $20s and $30s, but again I might be wrong about this.