Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

5 handed, UTG Raises, Button calls, I call in the BB with K8s

UTG is kinda neutral, think 35/18 I guess, not out of line, not the smartest player though. Button is fishy and loose, not totally out of line though. He can get scared in certain situations.

Flop is 456 rainbow, one suit of mine.

I check, UTG bets, Button raises, I 3-bet.

Thoughts?

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

That I don't understand it, and am interested to know what your motivation is.

Are you going for the "he's the BB so that could've hit him" mumbo jumbo (and hoping you're not against a PP, set or not)?

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

I think I would like it better HU. This is the type of play that I never make and maybe should learn to do.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Interesting. The only reason I can think of for the 3 bet is to knock UTG out to potentially buy some outs, and maybe get a free card from the scared guy if it gets heads up although that might be a stretch. I don't think we're ahead of button. I also don't think he's folding to a turn bet. I don't think we're clearing up outs often against UTG, more often than not he doesn't have a king.

I'd just coldcall unless there's some other reason I haven't thought about.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

First you should be putting both villians on a hand range thus far.

I like this play because we're folding anything but a higher pocket pair for the UTG, and we have a good chance of convincing the button the check through the turn again.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Pot seems a tad small to do it but I don't mind it. Raising is definitely superior to calling here. Folding still may be best though, getting just 4.5:1 to continue -- but you have some decent equity in this pot esp. if you can get UTG out.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like this play because we're folding anything but a higher pocket pair for the UTG, and we have a good chance of convincing the button the check through the turn again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. Since their ranges are so wide, I'll have to do some playing around to be able to measure the strength of K8 here. "Loosey buttons" do play K6 sometimes ... is he this loosey at your stakes?

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

I'd love to buy those K outs, and I think UTG will fold everything bar MAYBE AK, I'm not sure, he probably peels with that, but even KQ he might not feel comfortable with.

I think it just hinges on a theory that certain players will check-behind on turns, thus even out of position we can still influence how our villians will play. It is kind of read dependant, but for any normal party player, seeing a check-3-bet is pretty scary and its unlikely the button has a strong enough hand to bet the turn again UI.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

If there's even doubt as to whether UTG is folding AK here then I would just muck it. I kinda inferred from the read that he was auto-dumping it but this might not be the case.

The inducing-turn-check-behinds is interesting but I don't have any experience in this game so I can't say for sure.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

So folding costs 0 bets. How much extra equity do you think buying K outs & folding UTG gets you here? Enough to make *on average* more than your investment (which could be 3.25 bets if button ever caps)?

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

The problem is he has a king less than a 3rd of the time if he has a normal opening range for an 18% PFR. So you're buying less than 1/3 of 3 outs in a ~12SB pot, effectively less than 1 out. You really need a high chance of everything else going right (PF raiser folding and not capping, passive guy checking through the turn) to make this worth it IMO.

I don't think there's anything wrong with coldcalling here unless I'm overestimating our draw, I'd value it about the same as an OESD in this situation.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Thats what im posting for [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

The problem with my theory is, its making to many predicability assumptions. People behave erratically, and getting capped behind with WORSE hands can happen. The good part is I have a solid draw, so if [censored] hits the fan I can just try and hit my good outs and leave it at that.

Another reason for making this play that is dismissed my 2p2ers a lot but more are starting to realise is making yourself harder to read. What happens when I 3-bet the flop next time vs these two guys when I have a set? They going to believe me? Hell no, these guys are going to use their ego and show me up. Even bad players are still observant in some respects.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

The 3-bet would be good to try and get it HU against Button since UTG probably has the standard range of opening hands, so largely just overcards. My worry, however, is Button. You describe him as loose and fishy. Does that mean he will raise with nothing? How about draws? Unless you answer me yes to both those questions, I'd lay off the raise button.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

I'm totally with the unpredictability reasoning in your second paragraph, but, I choose cheaper spots to do this. Donk a turn or two with nothing & you'll get the same effect. You need people to think you're a turd in order to be unpredictable ... you don't have to 3-bet to be a turd [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Loose fish love raising draws, overpairs, TPWK, midpair/draw, even big overs.

He's not passive, if thats what you're getting at.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

It's not as bad as I thought, for some reason I totally disregarded the equity thing, even though I think we have a slight equity defecit that should be made up for by buying 1 out and possibly getting a free card. We could probably figure this out by calculating the percentage of hands UTG folds to the 3 bet and what ones he caps or calls, and how often the button does check through the turn when it's heads up and how often he does stuff like capping the flop. Maybe there's too many variables and it would take forever to do. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe there's too many variables and it would take forever to do. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

... and it might end up in the +/- 0.1 BB range. I'm betting on the negative range though.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Haha yep. See, its 10/20 so I was going to post it in MHUSH, but I think everyone would say 'hey if you think you can pull it off, go for it', rather then 'what are the odds of this working?'. More faith in that forum I guess [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Instead of going through complex numbers, I'll give you the turn card.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

UTG Folds, Button calls (Hell yeah!)

Turn is a 7.

Hero beats himself to a pulp.... and does what?

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Loose fish love raising draws, overpairs, TPWK, midpair/draw, even big overs.

He's not passive, if thats what you're getting at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I thought a "Fish" was generally loose-passive.

So by your definition, I like the 3-bet. It will hopefully push UTG out and get you HU with a dubious hand that you may have beat. In 3-betting, I think you're obligated to lead the turn regardless of what falls, unless one of the two caps.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

If only there were loose passives left at 10/20 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG Folds, Button calls (Hell yeah!)

Turn is a 7.

Hero beats himself to a pulp.... and does what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, bummer you 3-bet (although I guess if you didn't, you wouldn't be here. Calling that flop stinks). If you check, I assume he won't bet there at 10/20. You probably don't want to risk a river check. If you think a turn bet will fold this guy, I like checking the turn, expecting him to check behind. And then betting any river. If he bets that turn, you're a lucky, lucky man.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

I don't think you have enough equity to justify 3 betting and I don't think your going to knock anyone out with that 3 bet, so I'd just call.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you're buying less than 1/3 of 3 outs in a ~12SB pot

[/ QUOTE ]


I believe this isn't quite correct because on those times where you actually ARE forcing out another king then there are only 2 kings left.

So you have 3 king outs 'normally' but the raise is effectively attempting to 'buy' one-third of only 2 outs.



I guess if the king comes we don't really care how many there are left....we just care whether that other guy is still in the hand or not and could have a better king.
I think that somewhere in there the point I'm trying to make is valid...but it's really late and I'm not sure of much of anything at this point.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Callings the worst of the options in my view.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Um, I hope the question was... "I bet... but while I'm waiting to see whether or not button raises, calls, or folds, should I take a sip of coffee or a bite of donut?"

Because the answer is clearly: donut.

And I you clicked "check" here's a slappin'.

Re: Art\'s little hand of the week.
 

Why do you think calling is the worst option? You have 4 clean outs, the BD flush, and maybe 6 tainted ones. If this is button free card play so be it, you want to see the turn and river cheaply. I'd just call.