Turn Decision #2
 

No read on opponent.

Party Poker Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) 10/20FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero?

Is this a clear fold - why or why not?
If you do not fold - what action would you take and with what in mind?

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

I call down from the first flop bet. Either he has you crushed or you have 3-6 outs so there's no reason not to let him keep betting a worse hand. Given the way you played it I fold the turn without reads. I hate to give up a pair in a steal situation but I think you're beat by a sane opponent the majority of the time and you have no reason to assume he's a LAG (unless this is at 5/10 then I could go either way. 10/20+ I'd see a showdown for sure)

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

I dont play 10/20, but heres my take anyways:


Generally its good to call down here, because given the villains 3betting range, you often have him reverse-dominated. If you are behind a large pocket pair, you still have nearly 5 outs to improve. Your 8 to 1 oddds to improve when behind combined with the good chance that you are infact ahead means that you really shouldnt fold.

Also, if an ace hits the board giving you 2-pair, expect him to pay off your raise on the river easily.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

I see it's 10/20 now so I'd call down. Nice ninja edit [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are behind a large pocket pair, you still have nearly 5 outs to improve. Your 8 to 1 oddds to improve when behind combined with the good chance that you are infact ahead means that you really shouldnt fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you. So then it becomes a question of how to get to the river in the best shape possible. On the flop I believe that I should just call his lead unless I’m prepared to cap if he 3 bets.

I think I probably complicated later decisions by raising on the flop. When I raise, I opened the door for him to represent strength cheaply by 3 betting on a cheap street. (in other words, if I raise here, then I really should cap when he 3 bets, so I screwed myself on the flop)

If I just call the flop…
-Just calling the turn is still a legitimate option (sort of inducing / picking off a bluff w/ a probable 5 outer to go with it - if I am behind)... granted the pot will be smaller.
-I also have the option of raising the turn after just calling his flop bet (sort of mimicking a slow-play) planning to fold to a 3 bet.

I've been questioning all my decisions lately where I am calling and calling and calling throughout a hand. Maybe this is one spot where calling down the whole way with a pair would have been o.k.

In general though, I have had success with a raise or fold strategy in short / semi short games - combined with a tight pf game. Now I need to spend some time looking really hard at my flop play to start refining my game a bit more. Come to think of it...I'm going to start breaking down most hands I submit here to flop decisions only for a while... see where that gets me.

[ QUOTE ]
I call down from the first flop bet. Either he has you crushed or you have 3-6 outs so there's no reason not to let him keep betting a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the above advice, it’s really down to earth. This is exactly why I’m going to start looking at flop play only for a while… thanks for the responses.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

The only time I don't raise the flop is when I'm going to raise the turn. That said, I'd raise the flop if oyu plan to fold to a turn 3bet, because you don't something like another diamond to fall and him 3bet thinking you are semibluffing, or have him 3bet something like JJ with J of diamonds and you fold a 4 outer. The king doesn't change too much and isn't really a scare card. I'd call down.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

I don't play this high, but I think he has a pair 99-AA most of the time. That said, I usually fold here, he could be on a flush draw but I generally let this go.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

What is your image at the table? Villain may be seeing a steal, and attempting a bluff at you on a ragged flop. I've been having trouble with preflop raises and ragged flops lately.

When the king hits I hate calling down, but for reasons stated earlier (reverse domination, 8-1 odds)it may be correct.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

Most sane opponents arent 3betting that flop without TPTK an overpair or AK and of course a flushdraw.

Since he 3bet preflop I'd tend to put him on an overpair or AK so I think its an easy fold.

When you get a better read then adjust accordingly.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since he 3bet preflop I'd tend to put him on an overpair or AK so I think its an easy fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say villian's range is fairly large here considering he's 3-betting a button raise.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

Well at best its probably a flush draw with 15 outs but even so I think its best to give an unknown a bit more respect especially when you have a weak hand.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

15 outs is extremely generous
The villain will only have a flush draw here about 5% of the time.
You shouldnt forget about the possibility, but in practice, it should not be much of a concern.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play this high, but I think he has a pair 99-AA most of the time. That said, I usually fold here, he could be on a flush draw but I generally let this go.

[/ QUOTE ]

People will 3-bet stealers with many hands. The more the stealer steals, the more hands he can expect to get 3bet by. For the average stealer, the SB will do this with hands like: KQ up, KJs up, AT up, and 77 up.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

Well if you think an unknown is going to 3bet the flop with air then go ahead and call down.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

A reasonably tight range for him to 3-bet agains a steal would be AT - AK, KJ-KQ, 77-AA.

You are ahead of:
AT, AJ, AQ :
3 * 12 = 36 comboes:

You are behind these with 5 outs:
KJ,KQ,AK, 77, 99-QQ.
12+12+9+ 5*6 : 63 comboes

You are behind these with less or no outs :
88,KK,AA
3*3 = 9 comboes.

To this range, you are ahead on the turn 36/72 = One third of the time. Given that you have outs, that he might 3-bet a bigger range and that you get 2:8,5 when calling down turn and river, I think you cannot fold the turn unless you know that he wouldnt play the lesser hands in the above range like AT this way.

You could raise the turn, folding to a 3-bet, but I would call down, since we have out when behind.

Re: Turn Decision #2
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well if you think an unknown is going to 3bet the flop with air then go ahead and call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant 3bet preflop; I was speaking with regard to hand ranges.