3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

Not getting enough odds on every street? How often am i shown AKs (c) on the river or does the pre-flop cap always mean AA from a loose-aggressive/passive?

Thanks in advance for any advice.

Nick.

Reads: SB is 33/9.9 after 500 hands
UTG is 15.9/12.1 after 900 hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

I would fold the flop. You cannot expect your hand to be good at this point, like never. You are getting 2:16 but you are not closing the action. I think thats whats tips this to a fold. I would not give your hand more than 5 outs. A 5-outer draw require 1:8,2 but if SB reraises (as he did) you are getting 3:19, and even worse if UTG caps. So i dont think you should call the flop.

Turn is fine though. You should not raise here.

I would fold the river if i didnt have proof that SB is a maniac. You only have to be good here 6,7% but only a madman would play a worse hand the way SB did. I think you were lucky this time.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

Looks like you've got at least one maniac here, if not two.

I wouldn't fold 11 BB pot to a 1 BB bet check and call is correct at this point for turn and river, at least until a 9 or ten show up.

Good luck,
Pete

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

if your opponent has AKs of clubs he is a favourite to win this pot and you should fold (except if you KNEW that he had AK of clubs you could call the flop and raise the turn).

this flop is a CLEAR fold, if you arnt up against a big PP or FD and overcards you are up against wild/loose types and win more money from then later than you will in this marginal situation. Even if you DO hit your GS you are vulnerable to another club falling on the river.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

Fold the flop. You are behind and don't have pot odds to continue. Calling 8:1 on the flop you need all your outs to be clean and they're not. Your GS outs aren't to the nuts and one makes someone else a flush. Your third T makes someone else a straight. No way you win this hand.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

Thanks all. Nice to have a unanimous response.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

[ QUOTE ]
if your opponent has AKs of clubs he is a favourite to win this pot and you should fold (except if you KNEW that he had AK of clubs you could call the flop and raise the turn).

this flop is a CLEAR fold, if you arnt up against a big PP or FD and overcards you are up against wild/loose types and win more money from then later than you will in this marginal situation. Even if you DO hit your GS you are vulnerable to another club falling on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone not see the gutshot? Seriously, you have likely 6 outs to the best hand on the turn. Easy flop call.

Once it's heads up on the turn, easy turn call.

River, either way, I don't think it much matters if you call or not. Sometimes you get shown 99 or AKs, but not often. Without a read, I'd probably call.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop. You are behind and don't have pot odds to continue. Calling 8:1 on the flop you need all your outs to be clean and they're not. Your GS outs aren't to the nuts and one makes someone else a flush. Your third T makes someone else a straight. No way you win this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, someone 'might' have a flush draw. Think about what you are saying though. We have one capper out of the BB. He doesn't have a 9. We have and UTG raiser who raised this flop, he doesn't have a 9. One of them almost surely has a bigger PP, or maybe AJ. The thing you need to think about is hand ranges. This isn't a 6 way pot on the flop were people might have a 9, making the set outs dirty.

I think if you hit a T on the turn, you are going to be good about 90% of the time. Only trailing if it's the flush T, or someone actually has JJ.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

I would be uncomfortable on the flop, and I don't think your hand will be good very often on the river.

But I think you played it all right.

On the other hand, I really don't know what UTG is doing on the flop and turn. I guess he was auto-raising A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the flop, or he decided his A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] was no good on the turn and it wasn't worth drawing to aces up or better with your obvious flush draw cutting into his outs?

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

Anyone that fold this flop is insane.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that fold this flop is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wrong when I said that this is a clear fold since the pot is so big, but I think you need to elaborate a bit more before I will say that it is "insane" to fold this flop.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone that fold this flop is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was wrong when I said that this is a clear fold since the pot is so big, but I think you need to elaborate a bit more before I will say that it is "insane" to fold this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
Yes, someone 'might' have a flush draw. Think about what you are saying though. We have one capper out of the BB. He doesn't have a 9. We have and UTG raiser who raised this flop, he doesn't have a 9. One of them almost surely has a bigger PP, or maybe AJ. The thing you need to think about is hand ranges. This isn't a 6 way pot on the flop were people might have a 9, making the set outs dirty.

I think if you hit a T on the turn, you are going to be good about 90% of the time. Only trailing if it's the flush T, or someone actually has JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

When the action comes to you on the flop I think it is likely that sb holds QQ-AA to be capping from the sb when it comes to him 3 bet, and utg most likely holds JJ-AA or AJ. For all these hands you are drawing to 6 outs except the 3 combinations of JJ possible out of a total of 37 hands. If someone has JJ the 9s are still outs but some times he fills up and you lose so you have about 3 outs.

On average you can estimate around 5.75 outs which would require you to be getting 7-1 to break even. With all of SB's aggression so far he may raise behind the hero, but even when paying 3 bets to see the turn the pot would only have to be 21 sbs to justify the call and that is covered easily by implied odds with all the agression so far.

On the turn when UTG folds and sb has raised or bet with every chance Hero is likely always behind to AA or KK and getting 12-1 with 6 outs and closing the action hero can make an easy call.

On the river you need to be good about 7% of the time to justify this call but the way SB has acted so far I don't think he is holding a worse hand nearly that often so hero should fold.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

I think calling the flop is fine:

A) The available flush draw is [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and you hold the T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. While your flush draw is dubious at best, it does mean the other remaining T's are clean.

2) Given the PF action, it's highly unlikely that either villain has a 9; therefore, your gutshot outs are mostly clean. But, even if you wanted to discount the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] entirely, you'd still have 5 outs. While you're not quite getting the required odds, it's close, and more importantly, you'll definitely make up the tiny deficit.

Turn is a call.

River I think is a fold. I just don't think you're going to see an overplayed flush draw often enough to justify the call.

Re: 3/6 TT am i a fish?
 

I think this hand is well-played.

Folding the flop would be pretty bad. Do some hand-reading folks, in general all 6 outs to a set or straight are good. When they're not, it's because someone has JJ, but that' not all that likely.

With some redraws and discounting, and a slight boost for a weakish [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush draw, I think it's reasonable to suspect we have 20% equity or so in this pot. Folding for 1 BB on the flop in a pot that already has 8 would be quite bad. Even if it gets capped we're really not in that bad shape, investing 2 BB to hold our own in a pot that'll have over 10 BB in it by that point.

The only difficult decision in this hand in my opinion is whether or not to call the river.

Once UTG is out of there it becomes more likely that we're ahead. SB might be a big enough maniac to have AK or 99 or something. Maybe. We need like 7-8% equity to justify a call here. Put a read on and make a decision. Some sense of villain's post-flop play would be useful here. Calling might be good for peace-of-mind as well.