Swing State prediction contest
Somebody was going to do this, so I figured it might as well be me.
These are the 19 states that are still in contention, according to RealClearPolitics. The electoral vote counts are included in parenthesis. RCP assumes that 149 electoral votes are solid for Kerry, and 191 for Bush, so if you're trying to engineer a result for your favorite candidate, you can work from there. There will be no prize for the contest, however I'll be happy to tally the results once the outcomes are certified in each state. The contest will be scored as follows: 1. Number of states picked correctly 2. Number of states picked correctly, weighted by Electoral votes 3. +/- differential in overall Electoral Vote prediction 4. +/- differential in Popular Vote predicton Entries must be submitted by Sunday at 5 PM Central Time or I won't count them. Have fun. AR (6) CO (9) IA (7) FL (27) HI (4) ME (4) MN (10) MI (17) MO (11) NH (4) NJ (15) NM (5) NV (5) OH (20) OR (7) PA (21) WV (5) WA (11) WI (10) Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Electoral Result: I've included my predictions below. ==== AR (6) - Kerry CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Bush Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.6 Electoral Result: Kerry 275, Bush 263. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush IA (7) Bush FL (27) Bush HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Kerry NV (5) Bush OH (20) Bush OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Bush Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%) Electoral Result: Bush 291 Kerry 247 Flame on. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Kerry IA (7) Bush FL (27) Bush HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Bush NV (5) Bush OH (20) Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Kerry Kerry 281 Bush 257 Bush by .1% in the popular vote |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Kerry HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +2.5 Electoral Result: Kerry 312, Bush 226. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR B
CO B IA B FL B HI K ME K MN K MI K MO B NH B NV B OH B OR K PA K WV B WA K WI B Bush 295 Kerry 243 Popular vate +.6 Bush |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Bush MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Bush 269 Kerry 269 Popular Vote: Kerry +0.0 Edit: Does this seem THAT unrealistic? Lori |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
[ QUOTE ]
Does this seem THAT unrealistic? [/ QUOTE ] It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry. While you are all at it, how about a Senate prediction? Count Jeffords as a Democrat for this exercise. Current make-up in the Senate is Republican 51 to 49. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
sadly the looks of ir right now is the bad guys look to gain a few seats in the senate
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Re: Swing State prediction contest
It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.
Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Lori |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
[ QUOTE ]
It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry. Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Lori [/ QUOTE ] I like the way you had it. Some earlier predictors had Kerry picking up AR, which would be a bit of a surprise. My surprise pick is that I will blind-side Kerry by picking up MI. http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com.../mdf741916.jpg |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Kerry NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Kerry + 1.1% Kerry 284- Bush 254 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
My Prediction:
Kerry picks up NH Bush picks up WI,IA,NM Bush 296 Kerry 242 Senate GOP 52 seats http://ncdweb.dyndns.org:9200/electoralprediction.jpg |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6)--Bush
CO (9)--Bush IA (7)--Bush FL (27)--Bush HI (4) --Kerry ME (4)--Kerry MN (10)--Kerry MI (17)--Kerry MO (11)--Bush NH (4)--Kerry NJ (15)--Kerry NM (5)--Bush NV (5)--Bush OH (20)--Bush OR (7)--Kerry PA (21)--Kerry WV (5)--Bush WA (11)--Kerry WI (10)--Bush Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Bush by 2.5% Electoral Result: Bush wins 296-242 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush IA (7) Bush FL (27) Bush HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Bush NV (5) Bush OH (20) Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry by 1.5% Electoral Result: (Kerry) 272 v. 266 (Conservative guesstimate - FL could go either way, IA a Kerry possibility as well.) |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
lorinda -
Another possibility (for a tie) - Bush carries OH and WI, but loses FL. A tie is not out of the question. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
from the Washington Post, predictions from pundits and politicos:
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-s...stalBall04.jpg |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Kerry HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Bush Kerry 296 Bush 242 Popular Vote: Kerry +1.8 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
Bush
AR (6) CO (9) IA (7) FL (27) MO (11) NM (5) NV (5) WV (5) Kerry HI (4) ME (4) MN (10) MI (17) NH (4) NJ (15) OH (20) OR (7) PA (21) WA (11) WI (10) Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.0 Electoral Result: Kerry 272 Bush 266 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) -- Bush
CO (9) -- Bush IA (7) -- Bush FL (27) -- Bush HI (4) -- Kerry ME (4) -- Kerry MN (10) -- Kerry MI (17) -- Kerry MO (11) -- Bush NH (4) -- Kerry NJ (15) -- Kerry NM (5) -- Bush NV (5) -- Bush OH (20) -- Kerry OR (7) -- Kerry PA (21) -- Kerry WV (5) -- Bush WA (11) -- Kerry WI (10) -- Kerry Popular Vote margin: Bush 1.2% Electoral Result: Kerry 272-266 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Kerry HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Bush OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.9 Electoral Result: Kerry 286, Bush 252. D. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush IA (7) Kerry FL (27)Kerry HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10)Kerry MI (17)Kerry MO (11)Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15)Kerry NM (5) Kerry NV (5) Bush OH (20)Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21)Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11)Kerry WI (10)Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.9 Electoral Result: Kerry 311 Bush 227 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush IA (7) Kerry FL (27) Kerry HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Kerry NV (5) Kerry OH (20) Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry 1.4 percent EC results: Kerry 321 Bush 222 Side note: Turnout will be very high esp. within cities. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush IA (7) - Kerry FL (27) - Bush HI (4) - Kerry ME (4) - Kerry MN (10) - Kerry MI (17) - Kerry MO (11) - Bush NH (4) - Kerry NJ (15) - Kerry NM (5) - Bush NV (5) - Bush OH (20) - Kerry OR (7) - Kerry PA (21) - Kerry WV (5) - Bush WA (11) - Kerry WI (10) - Kerry Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.2 Electoral Result: Kerry 279, Bush 259. |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
I was thinking of doing the same. Here are my predictions:
AR (6) Bush CO (9) Bush IA (7) Kerry FL (27) Kerry HI (4) Kerry ME (4) Kerry MN (10) Kerry MI (17) Kerry MO (11) Bush NH (4) Kerry NJ (15) Kerry NM (5) Kerry NV (5) Bush OH (20) Kerry OR (7) Kerry PA (21) Kerry WV (5) Bush WA (11) Kerry WI (10) Bush Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.2 Electoral Result: Kerry 301 Bush 237 |
Re: Swing State prediction contest
[ QUOTE ]
AR (6) Bush Correct CO (9) Bush Correct IA (7) Bush (not called but looking correct) FL (27) Bush Correct HI (4) Kerry (not called but looking correct) ME (4) Kerry Correct MN (10) Kerry (not called but looking correct) MI (17) Kerry (not called but looking correct) MO (11) Bush Correct NH (4) Kerry Correct NJ (15) Kerry Correct NM (5) Kerry (not called but looking incorrect) NV (5) Bush (not called but but looking incorrect, but very close) OH (20) Bush Correct OR (7) Kerry Correct PA (21) Kerry Correct WV (5) Bush Correct WA (11) Kerry Correct WI (10) Bush Not called (but looking Incorrect, but very close) Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%) Electoral Result: Bush 291 Kerry 247 Flame on. [/ QUOTE ] Looking like 281-257 now. Do I win? |
FINAL RESULTS
The winner is....
ctv1116. He wins on the 4th tiebreaker, which as popular vote. He had an amazing 18/19 states, only missing Wisconsin. He also picked the popular vote within .5%. Second place: El_Barto. Unfortunately, he did not give a popular vote score, and may have had a chance at beating ctv. Non_Conformist got every state correct that he picked except NH and could have won, but failed to make picks for 3 states. Final Rankings: 18 States 1) ctv1116 2) El_Barto 3) KnockWurst 4) LaggyLou 5) LinusKS 17 States 6) TomCollins 7) sam_h 8) goofball 9) David Steele 16 States 10) Peca 11) Lorinda 15 States 12) Nate tha' Great 13) SinCityGuy 14) AceHigh 15) Grey 14 States 16) Non_Conformist 17) Nepa 18) jdl22 It was fun. Congrats to the winners. |
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