I cant win on Party Poker
 

Last year I started playing O8b on party and over about 1000 I was close to 10bb/100 (rough estimate based on hours and dollars).

Now since I got PTO, I have been tracking my play.

1300 hands and I am loosing 4.8BB/100.

I can't figure out what I am doing wrong.

I cannot win a big pot. My VPIP is about 21%

What should I look at? I am so sick of this, I play therer for reload bonsuses and barely break even.

By contrast, I am running about 7bb/100 on UB.

I know some will say small sample size, but I thought variance was lowere here.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

what limit are you playing?

and yes, sample size is small. But look at how far you're going with each hand. Just because you're semi-tight preflop doesn't mean you're not chasing garbage postflop

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

I have been having the same experience on Party for the last month. I can't figure out what I am doing wrong ... consistently losing to idiots that play hands and call bets/raises they have no business calling ... getting counterfeited ... not hitting one of my 37 outs ... blah blah. Loathe to try somewhere else because of all of the dummies, I figure it's just a bad run and things will turn around. But it really has been quite a long streak of CRAP.

Maybe it's rigged.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Even if you are very comfortable with playing ABC poker in O/8, a review of the basics can only help. I did it a few months ago, and my game improved. I quickly read through the Tenner/Krieger book again, and then did a detailed reread of Zee. Twice. The more hands you play, the more sense Zee makes. If you don't have the Tenner book, Krieger has about 5 articles in the CardPlayer.com archives that summarize it. If you haven't read Cappelletti, I'd recommend him too. (Warning, beginners stay away from Mr. Mike until you are playing well. He has some seat-of-the-pants attitudes on aggression that need to be taken with a grain of salt.)

That said, O/8 is primarily a game of hand evaluation. I assume that you have that part under control. Rule 2 is don't play post flop without the nuts or a draw to the nuts. Like all rules, this one can be violated when appropriate, but do so at your own risk.

Rule 3 is O/8 is a game of flushes. I read recently that in a 10 handed game, 7 players will usually be dealt 2 to a flush in their down cards. If there are 3 of a suit on board, don't be rammin' and jammin' your straight.

If you are doing pretty much all of that right, I think that the main reason for losing is winning small pots and losing big ones. I'm guessing that this is your problem.

There are lots of little leaky reasons for that. Some have been mentioned. Falling in love with your 2nd nut hand is a big leak. Taking off just one more card for a small bet, etc. Anytime you "know" you are doing something you shouldn't, but do it just this once is a leak.

One leak of mine I found recently was checking it down when I was heads-up and had the nuts one way and virtually nothing the other way. When you do that, best case scenario is you split the pot. If you hammer on the other guy, worse case scenario is that you split the pot. If he is checking it down with a weak low and a weak high, he could fold if you jam him.

The leak on the other side of that coin is folding that weak low/weak high when your opponent bets into you. If you are heads up and you have say the 2nd or 3rd nut low and a decent shot at high, don't fold for one bet.

Finally, a big reason for winning small pots is not playing aggressively enough post flop. A big leak here is quarteredphobia. If you "know" that you have a good hand, push it. If you have a high hand and two high cards (9 or higher) come on the flop, start betting to drive out the low draws looking for runner-runner. Again, read Cappelletti to learn to play more aggressively. Also, Miller's SSHE principles of postflop aggression translate well into O/8.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

What are your #s for
- Went to Showdown
- Won $ at Showdown
- Won when saw flop
- pf raise
- flop/turn/river agr factor

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Play 6 handed at Party. These are the juicy games on the net IMO. I am winning huge playing 6 handed as it allows me to play more hands and I am also very comfortable playing post-flop in any situation.

If you're playing 10 handed, more dummies at the table. if you are playing 6 handed, easier to isolate one or 2 dummies that aren't sharing outs and making you the dog.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

You know what I'm having the exact same problem on UB. Party I'm fine, but UB is absolutely killing me.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

I will post my stats at lunch time. We will see if anything pops out.

I feel like I am playing well post flop.

The reason why I am winning small pots is that most of the pots I win or folded or heads up on the flop.

I did have one big pot where this idiot 3-bet the river on a board of A 2 7 K 5 and I had A34x. I was multi-tabling and didn't cap it.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

I've also been having a bad run on Party. Mostly, I'm racking that up to bad luck and poor postflop play on my part.

Party Stats:

1250 hands
VP$IP: 17.44 (guess I've tightened up a lot, or maybe I'm not getting any hands)
W$WSF: 27.45
BB/100H: 1.64 (boo!)
W$SD: 58.82

The W$SD seems to be clear evidence that I'm chasing too much. The rest, I can't explain. Then again, chasing too much could easily explain the rest all by itself.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Toots,

That VPIP number just looks a little low. I think it was Gooper that ran the numbers recently and it looks like the magic number to shoot for is closer to 22.

I'd look at a couple things right off the bat:

Table selection. I'm getting really good at getting up from a table that doesn't have at least 2 and possibly 3 players with VPIP greater than 70. Playerview is something I don't play without anymore.

Loosen up a little in late position. Play the naked A 3 for a flop and don't be afraid to lay it down right away.

Don't be afraid to fold A A preflop from an early position when the hand doesn't have help.

I've started making a game of it in terms of folding/not folding. I am looking to fold first and need a good reason not to fold. :-)


Good luck,

Ironman Dave

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Thanks for the feedback.

You're right. I've been folding naked A3xx. I consider playing them in late position if at least the A is suited, but I've generally been folding if it's total rainbow/rags. My thought has been that I don't want to play for just half the pot, but then again, when I end up folding them all the time, I guess I'm playing for none of the pot.

Second: I've been working hard on table selection. I've been trying to stick with 10 seated tables where at least half the players have VP$IP > 40. More lately, I've been playing 6-7 handed tables where most of the other players are total fish, and I've had better luck there.

I'm also getting better at folding raggedy AAs, as nice as they might look.

At least some of the VP$IP, I still think represents poor cards. On Stars, where I play mainly $.05/.10, my VP$IP is hovering around 22 (after 3000-4000 hands).

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

- Went to Showdown - 31.12%
- Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)
- Won when saw flop - 24%
- pf raise- 3%
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]

- Went to Showdown - 31.12%
- Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)
- Won when saw flop - 24%
- pf raise- 3%
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[/ QUOTE ]

What limits? 3/6 has really tightened up.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

.5/1 - I am a small timer.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

You are not going to like this but it looks like your poor results are short term variance (I always hate when people tell me that).

The reason that I am saying that is your WtSD is a little bit low and so is you W$SD. Assuming that you are playing .5/1, 1/2, or 2/4 you are below average for both categories. If your WtSD was higher or your W$SD was lower I would say that you are chasing too much. However it looks like you are just on a bad run, maybe making a few to many crying calling on the river, but nothing too extreme.

I would suggest that you tight up a little bit on the river. Try to get W$SD up in the 60s. My stats looks close to your and even on really bad run's of card if I can keep my W$SD > 62 I usually don't do much worse then break even.

I think that every who plays at party has a love / hate relationship with the site. There are so many bad players that the swings are extreme.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Take my entire commentary with a giant grain of salt, since 1300 hands is no where close to significant. You could very well be playing perfectly and getting bad variance. That said, someone with your numbers long-term would generate the following commentary from me in my notes.

Note: my database is 10-20 with 470 players who’ve played 100 hands or more, so will be slightly different than your level, but from reviewing my 2-4 database in the past, I don’t think the #s will be too far off. Also, the number in parentheses at the end of the paragraph indicates what rank in my database your number would be.

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP of 21%, pf raise- 3%

[/ QUOTE ]
Slightly too tight in loose games. Certainly not wrong and some players are successful in my database with these #s with a tight style. But in my opinion is somewhat less than optimal as you are leaving money on the table in your marginal hands if you play well postflop (hands like bare A3, 2356, QJTTss). The average for the winning players is ~25% (12% -- means only 12% of players are tighter than you). Note: selection bias may be over-inflating that 25%# tho.

PFR – low (26%). With a tight style you’d want this around 5-6%. Could also go up to ~10% with different style. You may not be raising enough in late position with strong hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Went to Showdown - 31.12%

[/ QUOTE ]
Very low. (6% -- 94% of players went to the showdown more frequently than you).

[ QUOTE ]
Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)

[/ QUOTE ]
Low (40%). Combined with, Went to Showdown, you may be folding marginal hands too soon. Or are staying in too long before folding.

[ QUOTE ]
Won when saw flop - 24%

[/ QUOTE ]
Extremely low (4%). This has the single highest correlation with winrate, so you simply can’t be a winner with a number this low.

[ QUOTE ]
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop – very high (90%). Aggression is good, but you may be doing too much pushing not pulling with your monsters. Or too much semi-bluffing into fish with hands that don’t warrant it. My correlational analyses with 90+ pokertracker variables show “Won at Showdown when making Flop Bet” is 4th most important variable, so this is an important area to focus on.

Turn – high (78%). Same as flop, but much lesser extent since #s are typically higher here.

River – avg/low (40%) – Either you are taking lots of bad beats on the river, or you are over-aggressing your hands on flop/turn. Combined with Went/Won Showdown #s, you could be making bad folds on river since you’ve pounded the flop/turn to create big pots.

Conclusion: I would review your pokertracker hands lost specifically for the following, in order:
1) When you folded on river and were able to see others hands, was your fold correct?

2) Did you take lots of bad beats on the river card?

3) When you bet/raised on the flop and can see opponents cards in pokertracker, were those good bets knowing their cards?

4) When you bet/raised on the turn, should you have been trying to push or pull with that hand?

My notes on this player would say, 'overaggressive with weak values on flop/turn', can be bluffed at river", so i'd be calling you down on flop/turn, then betting the river.

Again, my comments are for if your numbers were long-run. In short run I can’t say if my comments apply or not to you particularly, but hopefully this gives you some places to look.

Hope that helps,
-- Greg

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Can't speak for the guy you're replying to, but it sure helped me, just reading that.

Thanks.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Thanks.

What is interesting is that i am up about 9BB/100 on UB with almost the same stats - but fewer hands. But I have been winning some monster pots - like 16-24BB pots 3-way. I can't do that on Party.

So I need to get to the showdown more often AND win more when I get there - sounds like a tough recipe.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
So I need to get to the showdown more often AND win more when I get there - sounds like a tough recipe.”

[/ QUOTE ]

No one said it was easy!

Seriously tho, 1300 hands * .21 VPIP *.31 went showdown is 85 hands to showdown. You won 58% or 49 hands. If you had won say 57 hands, your Won$SD& would be 67%, which is in the target zone. So if you could have identified just 8 hands out of the 273 (1300*.21) where you saw a flop, and changed your action from folding to winning at showdown, your numbers would reflect a different result. If you’d won just half the pot those 8 times and each pot was 8BBs, then 8*8*.5=32BB swing or net effect of 64BB, which would have moved your result from -4BB/100 to about +0.5BB/100

Add that to the money you’d have saved from being a little less aggressive and a) saving those bets when you folded, and b) encouraging more calls on monster hands, and your aggregate win rate might have been higher.

Again, the main take-way is that with only 49 or 57 hands won at showdown by far the biggest factor here is variance, so this is not a comment on your play.

The secondary takeaway is that if your numbers were true long term numbers, this analysis would give you some indication as to where to look for leaks, and why those leaks might indeed be leaks.

--Greg

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Played my 1st 1k or so hands today (700 raked, cleared bonus). Ended up 20BB down before bonus. Max was 30BB down after a big dry spell and paying to see showdowns (on purpose, explanation below). Might've also been betting draws too hard for around an hr (I was in that 'half asleep' thing).

Feel comfy in the game, although I could probally be a little more aggressive on the flop when I hit and more passive when I'm only drawing (at least when I don't have a huge number of outs).

I wasn't playing perfectly, I wanted to see a showdown occasionally with a hand i should've folded, but I like to know the sort of behaviour to expect. What people are doing with what etc.

After I finish the other 2 party skin bonuses I have I'm going to move to 1/2 for a bit then 2/4. I'll do some reading (articles, posts, strategies etc) and read some books sometime during 2/4 or maybe 3/6 (I intend to move up quickly).

Think I'll wanna order more than just Zee since the shipping is $40 (I'm not gonna take an order where the products cost less than the shipping).

It'd be nice to have PTO to check out my stats, but that'd lead to analyzing and stressing over insignificant samples [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

That's Omaha, I guess.

I loosened up a bit last night. More importantly:

1) My luck changed
2) I found a table with one maniac and six people who'd call anything

I love maniacs. Even had him at the virtual seat to my right. Three button orbits later, and I've won back everything I lost in the last week.

Come to think of it, I think the table selection beat the luck change.

I mean:

I can't think of any juicier confluence than O8, maniac and a half dozen calling stations.

Few things beat the satisfaction of scooping a 33BB pot. Especially when done right after scooping a 25BB pot.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

I'm fairly new to this site, but I have played O8 for the past 6 months.

First thing I must say, is that unlike hold'em, you guys are paying too much attention to the stats. O8 is a 4 card hand game, and with 4 cards comes thousands of more different starting hands than merely 220.

That being said, the variance can be outrageously high. Sometimes I'll sit down and catch a run of about 12 consecutive fantastic hands, and then take a stretch where about 8 hands suck.

That being said, some of my best sessions online (50BB in 1 hour I once won), I saw somewhere in the area of 65% of the flops that session. It was 6 handed, and I find that if you can re-value your hand to adjust to the 6 handed game, you will be miles ahead. Often people play much too tight or much too loose on these tables given it is short-handed.

Another thing I want to add, although I'm sure many of you know this, is that there is a general consensus among many online O8ers that a pre-flop raise is a terrible thing to do, and God will strike down upon thee. I think in late position or even mid-position with a good hand, popping in a raise or ramming and jamming, you will have all the so-so players calling that extra bet to see a flop. I have noticed that many on 10 handed tables (especially low limits) will play 2 or 3 card hands. This is a nono on 10 handed tables. You HAVE to have all 4 cards working for you if you have any expectation of a scoop don't we all). Don't be afraid to fold A2 rag rag, UNLESS that A is suited, as IMO suited Aces are a diamond in this game.

Now, in a 6 handed game, playing a 3 card hand with a rag is absolutely acceptable, and in most cases I'll raise with 3 to the wheel (especially with a suited A).

My point, pay less attention to your stats, more attention to your hand selection, and you will win more often than not.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

"Few things beat the satisfaction of scooping a 33BB pot."

Yeh good scoops really do make the difference. The only hand I was in that got alot of action (ie at least 4 on the turn/river) was when I made the nut full house with around 7-8 seeing the flop, worth around 22BB. Apart from that didn't do much scooping (a few smaller pots). Most of my session was treading water winning lows to split. Maybe that was the problem, I wasn't scooping enough or the pots just weren't large enough (people might've been too tight/passive). Just never hit my draws. I also probally wasn't playing high cards very well (think I hardly ever saw a flop with a good high only hand).

I'd say overall I played ok. I could play better, but you can't apply everything you have learned immediately. It takes time, so hopefully my consistency will improve along with what I learn, which will lead to $$$$ [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
My point, pay less attention to your stats, more attention to your hand selection, and you will win more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]

The two aren’t mutually exclusive. Reviewing how you played particular hands is one of the best ways to improve. Within that,
-- paying attention to your post-flop play is most important.
-- paying attention to hand selection (preflop) is next most important.
-- paying attention to your stats, when they have a reasonable amount of statistical validity, is a valuable tool in guiding you towards WHICH hands you should be reviewing to improve both your post-flop play and your hand selection.

--Greg

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

Two suggestions

Review your play out of the blinds. You may be getting large pot odds to complete the small blind or call a raise from the big blind. But you need to be thinking of making the nuts in loose games. Often the chances of getting a nut making flop are worse than your pot odds.

You also might be going too far with marginal hands. The extra bets you spend taking a card off add up.

Re: I cant win on Party Poker
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I'll sit down and catch a run of about 12 consecutive fantastic hands, and then take a stretch where about 8 hands suck.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just want to do my 2+2 civic duty and warn any less than veteran O8/B players about this statement.

"a stretch where about 8 hands suck"
THIS IS NOTHING.
GET IT - NOTHING!
EIGHT BAD O8/B HANDS IN A ROW IS NOTHING!!!

If you ever want to make a profit at loose game Omaha 8/B you better get used to folding pre-flop over and over and over again.

I really hate to clue my potential opponents in, but these forums have helped me so much that I feel obligated to give back, at least occasionally.

Once your pre-flop play is disciplined, your next most important skill is table selection. This includes leaving if and when the table becomes other than loose and at least nearly full.

good luck, and don't tell anyone else where you learned how to play... please