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-   -   how wrong am i here? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=395689)

PokerBob 12-10-2005 06:49 PM

how wrong am i here?
 
UTG is unknown. button is 41/0 on 50 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, hero folds

POKhER 12-10-2005 06:50 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I'd fold if he hadn't raised once, 3:1 or so. Its fine.

Spicymoose 12-10-2005 07:11 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
At 3/6 you are getting 19:5 if the BB comes along, and 16:5 if he doesn't. That means you are getting roughly 3.5:1. You would need to make up 4 * 2/3 SB postflop, or 1.33 BB. Considering you win this UI a significant portion of the time, I think you can call. Having the potentially retarded button helps a lot too (even though our read on him isn't solid yet).

I don't think you are giving up all that much folding, but I do think it is profitable to call. If UTG was a known tight raiser, I think this would be much closer.

Edit: Just realize UTG was also CO. Easy call now. Very easy.

Edit2: You are in the worst of situations in terms of blind structures, so if this game were 5/10, or had SB post half of BB, it would be an even easier call because of bigger implied odds.

scotty34 12-10-2005 07:13 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
To be honest, I really don't mind it, which is weird. A cold-call is pretty bad, as you aren't going to like many flops without a 7. If Button is as passive postflop as he is preflop, he will be calling down any pair, and you will have no idea if he is doing that or just hoping to hit some obscure draw. Your position is pretty bad in terms of being able to manipulate the betting to your liking.

A raise is pretty bad too. You would be bloating the pot, give UTG the opportunity to cap, and Button certainly isn't going anywhere. I tend to give a decent amount of respect to an unknown UTG raise, so I would say two overs at best, or you are completely crushed.

Unless you hit your set, or the board comes AK9 or something, you are going to be in a tough position postflop. You could end up paying a lot of bets with a second best hand (or third best). I would fold 55 here no question, and thinking about it in this light, probably 66 and 77 as well.

MicroBob 12-10-2005 07:30 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
"I tend to give a decent amount of respect to an unknown UTG raise"


It's not really an 'UTG raise'.
This is 4-handed.


Am I an idiot for thinking about cold-calling here?

I don't think all non-7 flops are terrible.
If if comes with just 1 over-card I'm still feeling pretty good (regardless of whether BB comes along or not I think).
J42, Q65, whatever.

DCWildcat 12-10-2005 07:33 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
Are you sure those stats are all 4-handed? I've never ever seen a 4 handed 41/0

Redd 12-10-2005 07:33 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I don't really understand - even if we open fold on 2 3 6 flops everytime, aren't we getting implied odds on hitting our set?

scotty34 12-10-2005 07:41 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
Oh, I didn't notice that it was 4-handed. That certainly opens up UTG's range quite a bit.

I am going to think about this a little more. Maybe run some numbers on how often you get two undercards on the flop. A flop such as J82 probably isn't terrible either.

MicroBob 12-10-2005 07:49 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Are you sure those stats are all 4-handed? I've never ever seen a 4 handed 41/0

[/ QUOTE ]


I have. I've even seen this heads-up (more than once).
I'm always raising or folding PF. He's always completing the SB, calling my raise, or folding.
I always raise...and he never does.

I've also seen 80/0 in 3-handed (more than once) and 95/3 6-handed.

It happens.

But this also goes back to my continuing desire for p-tracker and/or GT+ to have a way to set things up where you are ONLY looking at their 6-handed stats or their 3-handed stats or whatever you prefer.
It wouldn't be too difficult imo.
Some players I have enough heads-up and 3-way hands against to really screw-up their stats when I'm trying to look at their 6-max tendencies.

krishanleong 12-10-2005 07:58 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
3/1.

Meh, either way is not a big mistake.

Krishan

Spicymoose 12-10-2005 08:15 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
3/1.

Meh, either way is not a big mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit.

I really think that calling here is a sure thing.

12-10-2005 08:26 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
The problem with your disagreement is that you're giving way to much credit to winning UI. This will not often happen cheaply and sometimes you will be behind even when it seems very possible you are ahead. I favor Krishan's advice, and err on the side of tightness. 4-handed you can find better spots than this.

Spicymoose 12-10-2005 08:48 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
The problem with your disagreement is that you're giving way to much credit to winning UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. I think that we get make up almost all of our value from set value. I think we probably have a slight deficiency, but I think we way more than make up for this when we are given good flops UI.

krishanleong 12-10-2005 08:51 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3/1.

Meh, either way is not a big mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit.

I really think that calling here is a sure thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in?

Krishan

Spicymoose 12-10-2005 08:57 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3/1.

Meh, either way is not a big mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit.

I really think that calling here is a sure thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. He is putting in 5 for what is likely to be either a $18 pot, or a $24 pot. Sometimes it gets raised by the BB, but I think that is pretty minimal. Lets average the potsize to say $20. For our set, we need the pot to be about $40. That means we need to make up $20, or a bit more than 3 BB. Hmm, I musta done the math wrong earlier.

I still think we make at least 2 BB from implieds, meaning we only need 1 more BB profit on average when we don't hit our set. I think this is probably doable. I agree it is much closer than I earlier thought though.

krishanleong 12-10-2005 09:01 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3/1.

Meh, either way is not a big mistake.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree, but it is hard for me to fully flesh out why. Not only do we almost have odds for set value alone (we may even have more than enough from set value alone), but we are good UI quite a bit.

I really think that calling here is a sure thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know he is the small blind? And he has to put 5 in?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. He is putting in 5 for what is likely to be either a $18 pot, or a $24 pot. Sometimes it gets raised by the BB, but I think that is pretty minimal. Lets average the potsize to say $20. For our set, we need the pot to be about $40. That means we need to make up $20, or a bit more than 3 BB. Hmm, I musta done the math wrong earlier.

I still think we make at least 2 BB from implieds, meaning we only need 1 more BB profit on average when we don't hit our set. I think this is probably doable. I agree it is much closer than I earlier thought though.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is putting 5 into a 16 or 19 SB pot.

Krishan

jrbick 12-10-2005 10:07 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I'd feel better about calling if I knew how BB plays. W/o BB in the picture our implied odds on the flop make this a close call; but we're really hoping for the ideal situation to take place on the flop (CO bets, BTN calls, we check raise and they both call). Bob, are you confident that postflop will happen this way most of the time with these guys (i.e. is btn habitually peeling flops?). I dunno... just seems like our hopes for the ideal implied odds postflop are rather thin here w/o knowing CO very well and not knowing what BB is doing here at all (assuming he at least calls PF but I don't know.).

Alexthegreat 12-10-2005 11:27 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I 3bet this all the time. When he misses, I win.

jrbick 12-10-2005 11:31 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
Did you forget that BTN was also in the hand or am I missing something? We're seeing lots of flops that are not good for us 3 handed and there is about zero fold equity at 3/6 on the flop.

MicroBob 12-10-2005 11:33 PM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
"there is about zero fold equity at 3/6 on the flop. "



this is not quite true imo.

Alexthegreat 12-11-2005 12:15 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
If you think you can't play this hand against a raise 4 handed, then you probably should find a different game.

air 12-11-2005 12:25 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I just call here. Just because button is 41/0 doesnt mean he won't call 2 cold with a wide range.

If button had raised I would think about it but still call.

MicroBob 12-11-2005 12:59 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
If button had raised after NEVER having raised before then I would fold 77.


The 41/0 button is probably going to call 2-cold with many different holdings.
I don't think anyone is arguing the contrary about this guy.
He's loose and plays a lot of hands...and generally doesn't care whether it's been raised or not most likely. He just plays (and doesn't raise...Hey...I rhymed).

12-11-2005 01:05 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
Noone is 3-betting 4 handed?

Stinkybeaver 12-11-2005 01:12 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
With better reads I'm keen on making it 3.

I agree with the spicy moose that this is a clearcut call.

TO OP: Why play 4handed without keen reads.? Do you prefer 4-handed over 5-6 handed. IMO it's easier to play 5-6 handed and 4-handed will be have greater swings. Also the lags will be playing more correctly in a 4 handed game.

MicroBob 12-11-2005 01:17 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
He's got position on a 41/0 guy.
I would certainly stay in this game even at 4-handed and without reads on the others.

jrbick 12-11-2005 04:10 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
[ QUOTE ]
If you think you can't play this hand against a raise 4 handed, then you probably should find a different game.

[/ QUOTE ]

no you're right. I forgot that this was only 4 handed. What you say makes more sense now. Is this any different w/ 6 ppl?

Question about post-flop though: If the flop comes two paint how do you play? Even if it comes 1 paint and CO calls your flop bet, how do you play the turn? I won't go on to list out all of the scenarios but I'm just curious if I play to weak on the turn if I 3 bet preflop here.

(I bet the turn if I get a flop call w/ 1 paint and fold to a raise... if he calls the turn again then I effing hate myself and check the river... if I get a call on the flop w/ two paint I check the turn)

Alexthegreat 12-11-2005 05:03 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
Postflop it's tough to say....I usually just bet until I get raised against an unknown....With any reads it obviously depends....

I am a good hand reader, so I can 3bet and feel confident about however I am gonna play it postflop...If you aren't such a good hand reader, then you may want to just call and play for a set/undercard type flop....

jrbick 12-11-2005 05:10 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
I think my biggest problem is having the discipline to fold. Some spots are more obvious than others. Certain players are easier to do this against than others.

I have been using that same mentality of bet until someone shows aggression... are you folding easily on the river for 1 more bet (obviously depends on players and texture, but...)?

PokerBob 12-11-2005 05:41 AM

my thoughts
 
UTG is unknown. button is 41/0 on 50 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Button calls, hero folds

I basically look at the SB as cold calling OOP. Is this a hand im happy with vs. 2 players OOP? No. IMO this call is simple OTB, but OOP it may not be worth the headache considering the position, rake, field....

Victor 12-11-2005 06:08 AM

Re: how wrong am i here?
 
terrible.

Alexthegreat 12-11-2005 06:17 AM

Re: my thoughts
 
[ QUOTE ]


I basically look at the SB as cold calling OOP. Is this a hand im happy with vs. 2 players OOP? yes .

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP


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