Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Villian is 50/3/0.5

That river card sucks, because I put him on a range of 3 hands, and on the river, the last one I was ahead of got there. Other than spitting out "call for one in a big pot" does anyone see any reason that I'm good here 6% of the time?


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, BB calls.

River: (16.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Yes, you have a boat. Don't put him on such a small range that you can't call your boat for one bet on the river.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

What is one conceivable safe hand he could have here with those stats? Screw 6%, I'll honestly settle for 1 safe hand.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is one conceivable safe hand he could have here with those stats? Screw 6%, I'll honestly settle for 1 safe hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

AK

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Caps the flop and then 3bets the turn?

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

KQ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

3bets preflop?

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is one conceivable safe hand he could have here with those stats? Screw 6%, I'll honestly settle for 1 safe hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

a flush. AJs.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

What flush? AJ???

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Caps the flop and then 3bets the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
3bets preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have. I would have played the rest of the hand the same too.

Not saying it's likely he had that but no way on God's green earth I'm folding for one bet on the river with a FULLHOUSE. I've called in more dire circumstances than that and come out ahead.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
3bets preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have. I would have played the rest of the hand the same too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't run 50/3/0.5 now do you [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Caps the flop and then 3bets the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

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I realllllly don't think he does it often enough.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is one conceivable safe hand he could have here with those stats? Screw 6%, I'll honestly settle for 1 safe hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Definately a three-bet pre-flop and a jamming hand on the turn. Only questionable place is the flop, but I would jam that flop hard-core with TPTK and the nut flush draw.

[edit: Too bad the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is already on the board! How about K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?]

-K

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is on the flop.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
How about K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]?

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That fits well, I think. Enough to call a river bet.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

how many hands do you have on villian? and how many sessions?

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

~150, and no idea.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

do you really need a reason better than "you only need to be good here 6% of the time" when we are talking about 1/2 6m? sometimes people try to pull some crazy stuff.

oh, and AKh might play it this way i think.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3bets preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have. I would have played the rest of the hand the same too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't run 50/3/0.5 now do you [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but you didn't say how many hands that was over on the Villain. Really, in your shoes I would have just called the river and not given it a second thought.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
do you really need a reason better than "you only need to be good here 6% of the time" when we are talking about 1/2 6m? sometimes people try to pull some crazy stuff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do. That's why I have stats and whatnot. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Maybe you're relying too heavily on stats.

Also, K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has stuck out in my mind as a possibility. Preflop makes just some sense, but the flop and turn fit perfectly.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

i meant a flush like KhQh or maybe AsJs are reasonable 3-bets pre-flop (maybe not the best 3-bet, but it wouldn't shock me) and they certainly make sense from there on.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

I think the chance that he has a flush is well over 6% by itself. Also, it's 1-2, it's not impossible that he has nothing more than trip aces. You have to call here.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

I think the consensus is (or will/should be) that you are screwed here more often than not, but in a pot like this you have to call. I can't see him not turning over AA, QQ, or AQ in ANY situation, much less 6 times in 100. However, you've come this far and committed yourself to a SD by your turn play. Even if the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] doesn't come, you admit that you are only ahead of 1 hand he plays like that...

Personally I would have slowed way the F- down on the turn given his play in relation to his stats, but that's me.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I think the consensus is (or will/should be) that you are screwed here more often than not, but in a pot like this you have to call. I can't see him not turning over AA, QQ, or AQ in ANY situation, much less 6 times in 100. However, you've come this far and committed yourself to a SD by your turn play. Even if the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] doesn't come, you admit that you are only ahead of 1 hand he plays like that...

Personally I would have slowed way the F- down on the turn given his play in relation to his stats, but that's me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good post all around.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

my thoughts exactly

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Oops, pardon my reply. I'm new to this forum and unfamiliar with the format, I thought I was the first reply when in reality I was just restating something that has probably already been said 5 times. Peace.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

No, don't say that. Respond all the time, regardless of whether or not people have already said something. You will learn more by responding to posts than you ever will by starting your own threads, or only responding to threads first.

Welcome to the forums [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

heh, well. most of us will agree. even without stats, given the action, you will be beat a majority of the time. but you only need to win 6/100 times. you cant be THAT sure youre toast when its HU.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Hey mmbt0ne,

How many hands is your read over? I personally wouldn't fold this, and it's probably something I should work on, but you're completely screwed here and I don't think the call is profitable from a money standpoint, or even very close. A 3-bet preflop followed by a flop check/3-bet narrows his hand range down to like nothing.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

As the concensus seems to be, you're screwed. THe KJ or AJ scenarios are possible, but 6/100? I dont know.... How aware of a player is he, if he knew his image and was willing to bet you knew it too, he could be using that to his advantage, but then again with the way you were betting he has to put you on a strong hand, and that aggression factor just doesnt seem like one to seemlessly bluff.

I'd call, while cursing at the screen, and pray to Thor (God of the river card) and ask him for the last 8 instead next time.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Don't fold. Don't cap the turn either.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

I'd call it down on the end, it's true I might be up against a bigger boat but that is a chance I would have to take. K-Qs or A-K/J could definatly been played this way, I give myself a much greater chance than 6% to take this pot down. I call and hope villian doesn't turn over A-Q or A-10. Intersting thread, really, will you be posting results ?

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
What is one conceivable safe hand he could have here with those stats? Screw 6%, I'll honestly settle for 1 safe hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. There's three. You call on the river.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oops, pardon my reply. I'm new to this forum and unfamiliar with the format, I thought I was the first reply when in reality I was just restating something that has probably already been said 5 times. Peace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't not reply just because others already have. It's actually strongly recommended that you reply BEFORE reading the other posts...that way you're coming at it fresh.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
heh, well. most of us will agree. even without stats, given the action, you will be beat a majority of the time. but you only need to win 6/100 times. you cant be THAT sure youre toast when its HU.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

Im calling, if only for sanity's sake. You have to be sure BB wouldn't 3 bet a lone raiser with KQs( [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) to not see 1 bet.

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold.

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<font color="red">nope, don't fold </font>

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Don't cap the turn either.

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<font color="red">I disagree here. I believe you have to cap the turn </font>

Re: Screw SSHE, I want to fold
 

I call the turn 3-bet and call the river.

Even after capping the turn, I would call the river for sanity's sake (expecting to lose), but maybe that's a leak. You have a boat for chrissake [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]


Tom