Live 10/20 Question
 

Okay, last Friday I was at the Hollywood Casino in Aurora, IL playing 10/20 at a juicy, juicy table. Weak, passive. Only one other guy was decent. One hand I want thoughts on.

Note: I've been here for about 4 hrs, am up 20BB and haven't seen one limp/re-raise line all night. In addition, NO one ever limp/folded after a raise. The other "decent" player was not involved in the hand in question.

I get 79hearts in SB. 4 limpers to the button who raises.

I fold my eventual straight flush (yes, by the turn, the 6-8-10h had hit). But I just want to ask this question.

It would have been $15 for me to stay. Considering I've not seen one limp-reraise, I could argue I owed $15 for a chance at $105 (the 4 limpers all re-calling, the raiser, and my SB). Is this 7:1 "expected odds" reason to call here?

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

Cons: The button's hand is strong, or plays very well multiway (or both): he's raising four limpers. Also, you're out of position the rest of the way.

Pros: It's multiway, and your hand plays pretty well multiway.

However, I'm not sure you want to be in the habit of playing suited one-gappers for two bets (well, 1.5 bets) from the worst betting position on the table. I'd guess it could be marginally profitable at best if you're easily outplaying the field, but more likely you'll miss flop after flop in this situation and end up costing yourself more than that big pot you win with the SF.

Another problem is that the pot will be big here (11.5 SB if you call), and if you do catch part of the flop (say you flop top pair and some backdoor draws), you'll be tied to the pot and end up putting much more money in than your 1.5 SB. There's potential for pretty huge variance in making this play, and I'm not sure it's finally +EV.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

I think you need 5-1 to see a flush draw + the implied odds of all those extra bets you'll get after hitting - the reverse implied of drawing and not hitting.

If you're at a passive table then the reverse implied odds are only 1.5 sb, 2.5 at the most.

if you're at a aggressive table the they can be much higher

If the table is loose then the implied odds go way up.

if the table is tight then the they go way down.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

You already realize it was an easy fold. The results didn't change that fact. We just wish we made the mistake and called to take down a juicy pot. Last night I was in LP with 33 and it was 2 bets for me to call. I mucked. I would have flopped quads. Oh well. These are the mistakes we want other players to make.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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from the worst betting position on the table

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Considering that button (given table description) could easily have a large overpair, Hero would be in the 2'nd best betting position.


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more likely you'll miss flop after flop in this situation

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I forget what it is exactly, but hero will get a flush draw or better (2 pair, trips) 1 out of 6 times.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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You already realize it was an easy fold.

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Man, this forum needs some serious help.

If you already have the direct odds to call and the reverse implied are minimal then it is an easy call. As for you pocket threes - sometimes calling 2 with a pp is good poker, sometimes it is bad.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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more likely you'll miss flop after flop in this situation

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I forget what it is exactly, but hero will get a flush draw or better (2 pair, trips) 1 out of 6 times.

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Okay, fine, but does that make the play profitable? So he flops a draw. Then on top of your 6:1, he now either has a decent hand (2 pair or trips) some of the time, or he's 2:1 or worse to complete his draws by the end, all the while still putting a lot of chips in the pot, not just his preflop call. Also figuring in the times his made hands will finish second best, this all amounts to dragging, what, one pot in 12? One in 15?

I play in these weak passive games live all the time, and I'm not at all against seeing flops against large fields with these speculative hands. But I just can't see a solid argument for profitability here. If you can, I'd love to see it.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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You already realize it was an easy fold.

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Man, this forum needs some serious help.

If you already have the direct odds to call and the reverse implied are minimal then it is an easy call. As for you pocket threes - sometimes calling 2 with a pp is good poker, sometimes it is bad.

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Pocket threes in this spot is the easiest call ever. This 79s is closer.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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You already realize it was an easy fold.

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Man, this forum needs some serious help.

If you already have the direct odds to call and the reverse implied are minimal then it is an easy call. As for you pocket threes - sometimes calling 2 with a pp is good poker, sometimes it is bad.

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Are you saying 1. you advise he called with his hand? 2. That it is wise in a limit game to pay 2 bets with 33?

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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2. That it is wise in a limit game to pay 2 bets with 33?


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First of all, we're playing 1.5 bets. Second of all, if we hit ou hand its pretty likely we're winning. Third of all, this is shaping up to be a big pot. Fourth of all, this is a super easy hand to play. Fifth of all, we have great position if we do hit. Sixth of all, I like a call here with 33 every time.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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As for you pocket threes - sometimes calling 2 with a pp is good poker, sometimes it is bad.


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Pocket threes in this spot is the easiest call ever. This 79s is closer.

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I realize you're trying to slap me for being a cock and I probably deserve it, but the poster never specified what situation his pocket 3's faced.




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I play in these weak passive games live all the time, and I'm not at all against seeing flops against large fields with these speculative hands. But I just can't see a solid argument for profitability here. If you can, I'd love to see it.

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I should know these numbers already, but I don't and I don't have my cheat sheet with me. However, I believe that a 1 gapper suited is a 5-1 dog to hit his draw or better. Hero is getting 7.6-1 if bb folds.

If he misses his flush draw or better then he is out 1.5 sb only. This is a loose passive game

If hero does flop a draw then is only a 2-1 dog to complete it. At that point, he'll be putting in 1.5 more bets to win probably 4.5 bb. And this is a conservative estimate. If hero hits his draw and bets out, button may raise and hero is ecstatic. Of course, hero may find himself trapped in a raising war, but the OP already indicated that this is unlikely.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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That it is wise in a limit game to pay 2 bets with 33?


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If the OP had 33 instead of 79s this is the easiest call ever. Why? Hero is getting about 8-1 to hit his set. The set will come about 1/9 times (i think) Hero will get plenty of action after he hits. Hero has redraws to a boat should he get outdrawn on the turn.

The question you need to be asking is "will i get about 11 or 10X the money i'm putting in if i hit?"

You figure this out by seeing how much is already in the pot.
Who you're playing against (their betting behaviors)
your position, absolute and relative


BTW, you need more than 8x the money your putting in 'cause you will get outdrawn from time to time.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

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I should know these numbers already, but I don't and I don't have my cheat sheet with me. However, I believe that a 1 gapper suited is a 5-1 dog to hit his flush or better. Hero is getting 7.6-1 if bb folds.

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What is it if he has AK,KQ,AQ,AJ of hearts? or any over pair with a heart and hit. If raiser or the other players don't have any hearts will you get implied odds? Unlikely from anyone who can't beat a 9 high flush. The straight has good implied odds.

I don't want to hijack the thread but the 33 was 10/20 live and UTG raised, folded to me in LP. Slightly loose table but not real bad players.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

First off, I mis-spoke. I meant 5-1 to catch his draw, not his flush. I've edited the original post

Secondly, if button has a better heart draw then hero is SOL. Sets aren't beat by higher sets very often and flushes don't get beat by better flushes very often. The reverse implied of a small suited connector will always be greater than a small pp but in this situation the reverse implied is limited to getting the draw and not hitting and getting beat by a better flush. Still not enough to fold.

Your hand was a good fold.


EDIT: In the interest of being as specific as possible: The odds of villian having AKh, AQh, AJh, or KQh, or KJh are 5/66. And I'd say that either 1) limiting villian to just 66 possible raising hands is too conservative or 2)saying that at a loose passive table both KQh and KJh would raise is too liberal. Whichever one it is, that ratio is probably too generous. The real problem comes from villian having the Ace of hearts and subject to drawing out on you if you hit a flush on the turn. But, though, a greater threat, it's won't ruin your expected value.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

If I was fairly certain (>80%) that there would not be a raise from the BB or the limpers, I would call here. Given OP's read on the table -- and assuming that BB is not overly aggressive from the BB -- I would call. The math is laid out in other posts. I would emphasize, however that calling here is more about the future than the current pot odds. Also, these hands (compared to the two-big-card hands) are far easier to get away from when you only get a small piece of the flop.

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

Let me pose another question: say I call, all call. We have 14small bets. Flop comes Ks - 6h - 8h.

Considering I now have 15 outs twice, I'd lead out, hoping to trap people before the pre-flop raiser can raise, correct? At this point, I'm jamming this pot. If the raiser does raise, I 3-bet, as I doubt anyone folds anyways.

Is that right, or am I crazy?

Re: Live 10/20 Question
 

if you flop any oesd or fd then you try to get as many bets in as possible assuming at least 2 players are still around

if its HU then you're more careful but with an oeStraight Flush draw then you jam, even HU.