KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB <font color="#A500AF">(Super-LAG)</font> calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Super-LAG checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Super-LAG 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Super-LAG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Super-LAG raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Super-LAG checks, Hero...?

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

Do I value bet?

He's very loose and would easily complete my raise with almost anything in the BB, so a 5 is not at all unlikely for him.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

I'll go first.

Yup

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

yeah, and you should also cap the flop.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Yes - he could easily call your raise with a 5, but with the two 5s on board he very easily might not have one. Could have a 2 or a J or A9o or any other hand you beat.

I would never fold an overpair KK at the microlimits on this board and HU, bet, if he raises, call.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Against him folding would not even be a consideration if he raised me here. He would easily raise me on every street with AJo here.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Agree

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

He had J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and I felt like an idiot for not betting him. How often do you think I'm ahead here though? This guy didn't seem to know that you can extract value from your opponent without check-raising, so he seemed to like to check-raise when he had a strong hand on almost every street (against a preflop raiser).

I expected the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] draw, but not J's and 5's.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

You're going to be ahead more than enough for a value bet, that's for sure - you already had a hand preflop, he has to connect with some part of the board with the trash he decideds to play.

The only time it would even cross my mind to fold is if there was four to a straight or flush on board and even then I'm rarely folding for one bet in a 10-15BB pot.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

if you are going to bet the river after he already check-raised once, should you cap the turn?

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

I think the key is that we were checked to on the river; if he bet into me on the river I would personally only call.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Cap the flop, I'm 3-betting the turn about 75% of the time with the field trapped. I'm betting and calling a raise on the river.

-d

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Yes, I would only call if bet to on the river.

I guess that my point was that this guy seems to check-raise instead of value bet so there was little difference between calling his bet and betting into a potential check-raise.

My thinking at the table was along the lines of the "heads up on the river" section of HEPFAP. But instead of needing to win this one 55% of the time it was higher since his probability of check-raising is very high. I thought it was something like 65%.

When you think about it like that, it seems close. (Or does it?)

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

I bet and expect the trifecta check raise. Then I three bet and call a cap. This is because he is super LAG. I just call if he's a garden variety LAG.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Sorry, Super-LAG but not that Super. Plus he wasn't Super-Bad (postflop).

3-betting is not an option for me here. I've got about 250BB bankroll and I don't want to squeeze out the small EV from this play (and I think it will be small with the possibility of him capping with a better hand) for the big increase in variance.

Even with 600BB bankroll I wouldn't 3-bet this though.

Re: KK uncertainty (do I value bet?)
 

Pound away on LAGS with strong hands.... They will so you so much sh*t on the river it's freaking hillarious.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]