Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB is 40/4/.65 big enough sample
SB is laggy but not crazy

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero ...

I feel like i am beat here, but can i fold ??? Im getting 10:1 on calling. Im quite sure BB has trips, a full house or a straight. If he has a straight i have 4 outs. I guess he could have AA or KK aswell.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

I think that you can fold, but I am really bad at poker.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

I don't play 5/10 but w/bb's passive-ish agg/looseness and waiting for flop raiser to bet again, I'm dumping...

Mike

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

Tough hand. I think you should fold this but it's a fold I have a really hard time making.

If I've been making a lot of continuation bets and winning a lot of pots without showdowns, I think a call down might be in order (BB could think his top pair is good). But, most often, he'll show you a 9 or a straight and you should just get away from it before he does.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

Im going to assume villain doesnt have QQ because of the preflop action. You cant fold getting 10:1. Thats enough to draw to your full house. The river is more interesting imo.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
You cant fold getting 10:1. Thats enough to draw to your full house. The river is more interesting imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

If Hero calls the turn he shouldn't fold the river. Making the river the least interesting street.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

I think it's a fold here, since BB has very low aggro. It's very likely has an 9, 88(turned fullhouse) or JT. However, what I am really interested in is it is better to check the turn?

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

I probably would have called the flop the first time around

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats enough to draw to your full house.

[/ QUOTE ]
At best hero only has 4 outs (and 1 could be improving bb to quads); so maybe even only 2 outs.

I think bb called flop w/made hand so he could be bet into on turn (because that's what I'd do). But regardless, the outs aren't there for such a super thin call...

Mike

edit: I should have added that for me, bb's stats ("big enough sample") are the compelling factor here; I'd likely feel totally different in another situation.

Turn and River
 

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

River: (11 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: 11 BB

SB shows [ Qc, Js ] a full house, Nines full of queens.
BB doesn't show [ Jd, Th ] a straight, eight to queen.
SB wins $107 from the main pot with a full house, Nines full of queens.

Guess this is why im secondguessing my fold..........

Re: Turn and River
 

Ok, "do-over": What you should have done was capped the flop and turn and hopefully river since that winning card is coming; and you were ahead of sb the whole way and bb w/his str would pay it off...

Mike

PS It's a tough one; based on OP I don't see what you have to second-guess...

Re: Turn and River
 

thats not what i meant, i still feel it was an ok laydown however against a straight i have enough fullhouse outs to call the turn raise. The only hands BB can hold that i dont have enough outs to call turn with is QQ or a 9. While they are quite likely given the action AA or KK could also be possible. Its a pretty close decision in my opinion

Re: Turn and River
 

It's close, but I respect the fact you had the discipline to lay it down based on your analysis (even if it was slightly wrong). I don't think KK or AA play it like that too often. You're looking at a 9 or straight (maybe 88) the vast majority of the time.

Don't post results in that manner. It cheapens the whole thread.

FWIW, I think your fold was correct. You have enough odds for a 4-outer, and against the range of hands you're facing I think you're looking at less than that.

Re: Turn and River
 

[ QUOTE ]
thats not what i meant

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes I talk "pushy" without meaning to sound that way; just wanted to say I really meant that "do-over" in a lighthearted sense; wasn't trying to sound snotty or anything (not that you said I was)...

Mike

Re: Turn and River
 

My initial thought was 3-betting the flop. Then, after reading the posts, I thought this would probably be spewing. Turns out a 3-bet was in order. Either way, there is a very slim chance I am folding here.

Re: Turn and River
 

I really appreciate your input. Maybe i was a bit short in my reply, im on european time and its getting a bit late, i was just trying to explain my thoughts. Anyway thanks for your responses mate!

Jesper

Re: Turn and River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

River: (11 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks.

Final Pot: 11 BB

SB shows [ Qc, Js ] a full house, Nines full of queens.
BB doesn't show [ Jd, Th ] a straight, eight to queen.
SB wins $107 from the main pot with a full house, Nines full of queens.

Guess this is why im secondguessing my fold..........

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to comment and provide analysis until you posted the above. Frankly, this is horrible and you should refrain in the future from posting the results so early until a significant amount of thoughts is provided as to not skew the analysis process. You really, really shouldn't feel good at all from having folded your hand after seeing the results...results don't make any play whether it's a fold/call/raise correct.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

If you have good reads, trust your reads. If you don't, let pot size and math and happy stuff guide you.

Re: Turn and River
 

Well i kinda thought the thread was dead tahts why i posted results. Most thought i should fold and couple seemed to think it wasnt a very hard decision, i thought it to be a fold aswell and still do, i posted results to help illustrate that maybe i had po to call.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

I think it's a good fold.

nh.

Re: Can i fold ??? 5/10 AA
 

For simplicity we'll ignore BB having QQ, AA, KK.

Since BB is loose, a conservative hand range for him is:
98 and up -&gt; 38 combinations -&gt; gives you 2 outs
JT -&gt; 16 combinations -&gt; gives youu 4 outs

Average outs = (2x38 + 4x16)/(38+16) = 2.6 -&gt; 20:1 odds required

Lets say implied odds are 13:1. This is optimistic as you will have reverse implied odds if BB improves to quads.

Therefore clear fold. There are to many combos of 9 that BB can have.

Trent.