Donkiest play ever?
 

5-5 NLHE, UTG limps and I utg+1 (4.5k) raise with AdAs…Button calls (1k), BB calls (5k), UTG folds.

The game is 6-handed and tight and I’m playing extremely laggish and picking up a lot of pots. I have a long history with villain who’s a predictable TAG…

Flop As – Kd – 10d

Villian bets 50 I call and button folds. Button pretty much gave away that he was going to fold. My immediate thought when villain bets is that he has the case A (he is not a semi-bluffer).

Turn 6c (As – Kd – 10d)

Villian bets $75 and I call. I’m now almost certain villain has an A and is pretty weak. He would make a big bet with any strong holding. I’m also certain that he will get off AQ or AJ if I raise. He will probably pay me off any river that misses him. I plan on firing on the river no matter what if checked to as villain plays straightforward.

River Qh (6c - As – Kd – 10d)

Villian hesitates for a few seconds and bets $300. I call.

Donkiest play ever?

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

FWIW I think you played it fine, assuming that

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AQ or AJ

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is true. He sounds like the type of player that won't call a river raise without a Jack.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Isnt the whole point of playing lag, to get paid off when you hit a big one?
You flop top set and slowplay it?
I dont get it.
What did you make it pf? im assuming 30 ish
I would at least raise flop to like 250ish, and since you said you are playing lag, he prolly gonna call with an Ace with a broadway kicker.
Barring flop raise, i DEF raise turn.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Give the cat a good kicking so you'll feel better and fold. When at worst he's probably got you on AK or AQ at this point and raises like that he's got the straight unless he thinks you are a complete maniac. Slowplaying can be a great way to maximize your earn rate but only if you can lay down strong 2nd best hands like this one, calling is likely a disaster here.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Sry, i made it 35 preflop....

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Isnt the whole point of playing lag, to get paid off when you hit a big one?

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Yes, but i had a very good read on what villian had and was CERTAIN i was not getting paid off if i raised. When he made it 75 on the turn, i put him on specifically AQ or AJ (it's very very rare that i have this good of a read). Maybe he calls a minraise but probably not. If i make a reasonable raise, i'm sure he's folding.

All that said, i've been wrong before so i probably should have gone ahead and put in a decent sized raise (hence the title of the post).

EDIT: Just wanted to add - against an unknown opponent i almost certainly would have made a sizable raise on the flop. Especially given my, at the time, laggish image.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Give the cat a good kicking so you'll feel better and fold. When at worst he's probably got you on AK or AQ at this point and raises like that he's got the straight unless he thinks you are a complete maniac. Slowplaying can be a great way to maximize your earn rate but only if you can lay down strong 2nd best hands like this one, calling is likely a disaster here.

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Yea, i convinced myself to call on the river based on the slight hesitation that i noticed. It turns out he was thinking "hmm, how much can i get this sucker for". I misinterpreted that for a possible "hmm, i wonder if i should value bet 2 pair here"

If only i had a cat.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

I dont know if you some1 will fold tp2k/tp3k to a raise from a lag on that flop, but you said you had a stellar read,so thats fine. But i def raise the turn, i dont wanna win a lil pot with a big hand...if he folds..mehh watever, he prolly wasnt gonna call much on river anyways.
Especially with a set of Aces with another broadway card out there i play fast, real ugly seeing more broadway cards.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Yea, i'm trying to gauge how shitty of a play this was. He ended up having AJ and i felt like a total donkey after the hand. But I think i can get him to pay me off like $250 on the other 40 river cards (that i like) given how slow i played the hand.

Sometimes playing fast is not the best way to maximize a pot. But maybe i'm just fooling myself on how strong my read was? Maybe he would have paid me something on the turn (although i still don't think so)?

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

why doesn't he pay off on the flop to a raise? if you're a LAG you could be raising (or should be :P ) a wide range of hands.

edit: *meaning flop raising

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

A few cats around the place are theraputic when you are on the wrong side of set vs set or someone spikes that gutshot straight on you. My girfriend has 2 and they definitely have incredible theraputic value on those 2 and 3 outers.

Actually I think you're fine with the way you played it up to the laydown/call decision, the odds of him hitting that stragiht vs the potential payoff of getting him to call another $150 on river are completely worth it. Remember, he's having a harder time putting you on a hand here than the reverse, when a TAG comes out firing big on the river when all it takes is for you to have 1 face card on river, he loves his hand. If you want to be Mr tricky slowplayer you have to be able to dump it when it blows up in your face.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

this particular opponent is pretty darn tight....his flop and turn bets are basically blocking bets. While my image at the time was laggish he's played with me a bunch and lays down to my raises with all but the strongest of hands

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Why'd you call that river? That bet pretty much screamed, "I have a jack." If he was truly a predictable TAG as you stated, wouldn't that river have scared him if he had AQ, ESPECIALLY since you were calling down the whole way? If you're not going to re-pop the flop or the turn, why call a sizeable bet when the last card you wanted to see (aside from a diamond perhaps) comes on the river? What do you think the Villain put YOU on?

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

After turn he's probably check/folding the river, regardless of what hits. It doesn't matter if he folds to a raise somewhere, slowplaying here is terrible for metagame purposes, particularly short-handed.

And right, a tight player wouldn't value bet two pair here for $300. From the likes of it, he might throw out a smaller blocking bet again.

BTW, I really hope you mucked afterwards.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

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Why'd you call that river?

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See thread title

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That bet pretty much screamed, "I have a jack." If he was truly a predictable TAG as you stated, wouldn't that river have scared him if he had AQ, ESPECIALLY since you were calling down the whole way?

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Yea, while he may have made another blocking bet with AQ, i don't think he would have bet that much and may have checked. I was pretty sure he had a jack but i was getting 2-1 and i thought i saw some sincere hesitation before he bet and was not sure what it meant. Plus, i'm often stubborn (leak)...I probably should not have called although i do think it's pretty close.

Edit: By the way....i was almost certain that he did not have diamonds

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

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It doesn't matter if he folds to a raise somewhere, slowplaying here is terrible for metagame purposes, particularly short-handed.


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I disagree....Sometimes i call with draws or very marginal hands. I want my opponents to know that i could also be calling with a monster. Even if the board is scary. (although this is very rare for me)

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And right, a tight player wouldn't value bet two pair here for $300. From the likes of it, he might throw out a smaller blocking bet again.


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Agreed

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BTW, I really hope you mucked afterwards.

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You mean after i called and he showed me his jack? yes, i said "nice hand" and folded without showing. but i do think he know's he got lucky

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Perhaps. I was thinking that the fact this is a draw-heavy board actually makes your slowplay better. On a completely dry board, I think you should continue playing fast.

I'm only saying that if you feel like you've been playing too aggro and the table is ready to fight back, this is a perfect time to continue playing fast.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

All I am going to say is there are much better boards than ATK to slow play on.

SpaceAce

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

even if he does fold, its better to pick up the pot there than let him draw out on you. In addition to this,playing it ur wayin the future when u raise the flop he will now know u dont have a monster. Only sandbag when u know there's almost no chance of u being outdrawn and u were not the initial raiser and u know ur opponent will continue to bluff or bet his decent hand very strongly until raised.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Yes but the point is that since this is a draw-heavy board, your only hope of getting a decent amount of money out of Villain is to flat-call twice and rep a busted flush draw on the river. aggie felt his read of a weak/vulnerable hand (and not a big drawing hand) was correct, so I think we can assume Villain is probably drawing to a gutshot here. It's worth it to risk seeing those 4 cards in the deck in hopes that you can gank him for a 75%ish pot sized bet on the river.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Punting cats is fun. Punting babies is bliss.

In other news, i agree with thabadguy on the hand.

been playing too long...
sox

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps. I was thinking that the fact this is a draw-heavy board actually makes your slowplay better. On a completely dry board, I think you should continue playing fast.

I'm only saying that if you feel like you've been playing too aggro and the table is ready to fight back, this is a perfect time to continue playing fast.

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I dont agree with this, because this a draw heavy board you wanna play it fast, not slow! that way you can play your draws fast too, i wouldnt mind slowplaying this if it is a completely dry board; with a ton of draws, im making him pay to see any more cards, and he also may feel that since youre playing lag, you may well hold something like a gutshot+pair on this flop. If he can lay down AQ/AJ to a flop raise here, you obv arent playing lag enough

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here, and then no way you can call this river

youre exactly right about your assessment of your own lay you donkey, make that lag style pay off!

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

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there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here

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It's true, nothing is 100%, but your tone is fairly ignorant. Conservatively estimating, i've played 200 hours with this particular villian. I've seen him with 100's of very strong hands on draw heavy boards. I have NEVER seen him make an underbet when he had 2 pair or better (and no reason to believe he was behind). It's just not this guys style so i'm almost certain he does not have a set or two pair (let's say at least 99%)....He also does not semibluff or lead out with less than top pair....Period....So he does not have a flush draw or some pair / draw combination.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Do i know this guy?

Some math and some more thoughts:
 

Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)

40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.

(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV

If i raise now i win what's in the pot

(210 + 75) = $285EV

Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?

EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

you were speaking in absolutes and a self depracating manner

im not going to argue the self depracation, you asked for reinforcement

the only absolute is that nothing is absolute, and he could have mistyped or it could be a friend or he could be taking lessons from Ciaffone, WHO KNOWS?!?

i still hate how you played this hand

Re: Some math and some more thoughts:
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume all my assumptions are correct and analyse this hand from the turn on. Villian always has either AQ or AJ. Villian Folds 100% of the time i raise the turn. He calls 100% i bet the river ($250). And I pay him off every time he hits his straight ($300)

40 river cards i win whats in the pot now (210 + 75) plus $250 on the river. 4 river cards i lose the $75 that i call on the turn and $300 dollars on the river.

(535*40 - 375 *4)/44 = $452 EV

If i raise now i win what's in the pot

(210 + 75) = $285EV

Clearly, if all my assumptions are correct, slowplaying here is best by quite a bit. The question is, how certain do i need to be about my assumptions?

EDIT: if my math is wrong here please let me know (i'm not sure i'm thinking about this correctly)

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Aggie, your math seems slightly flawed to me(i think u dont wanna see about 7 cards on the river :if he has AQ then 3 queens and 4 jacks, and vice versa), but the problem i have is your reasoning that he will fold to a turn bet but call a river unimproved. I think he would probably only call river when he hit his two pair, but in that case, you dont know if he has a straight or 2 pair, and if he checked it to you, you might be hesitant to bet too.

Re: Some math and some more thoughts:
 

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(i think u dont wanna see about 7 cards on the river :if he has AQ then 3 queens and 4 jacks, and vice versa)



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why 7...my math assumes i'm paying off when he hits his straight so i know of the 7 scare cards but also know that only 4 of them hurt me.

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but the problem i have is your reasoning that he will fold to a turn bet but call a river unimproved.

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You do see that it 1000 times easier for villian to call the river though right?
1. villian will probably check his hand on the river no matter what (unless he hits one of his 4 outs). If i bet villian is going to have a very hard time putting me on a hand that beats him. I almost never slow play dangerous boards so he'll put me on a diamond draw and pay me off.
2. He know's he won't have to face any further "shells" when he calls on the river. He's definitely not wanting to play a big pot (which is why he's betting so little). He closes the action on the river so will be much more inclined to pay off.

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I think he would probably only call river when he hit his two pair, but in that case, you dont know if he has a straight or 2 pair, and if he checked it to you, you might be hesitant to bet too.


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Remember that this is the least tricky opponent in the world and he does not check the nuts. If a Q or a J comes on the river and he checks to me, i have the 2nd nuts and i'm value betting.

Remember, with the math i'm assuming that all my assumptions are 100%. Obviously this can't be the case. but i do have a very unusualy strong read in this case (which is very rare for me). So the question is how certain do i need to be about my assumptions to make play that i made correct? Obviously you can't know how strong my read is but just assume that i have the strongest read of how this guy is going to act possible

In reallity he clearly does not have to pay me off on 40 rivers to make slowplaying more + EV than raising the turn.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

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the only absolute is that nothing is absolute

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Really? Thanks for the insight!

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and he could have mistyped or it could be a friend or he could be taking lessons from Ciaffone

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Take the context clues buddy, this is a live game. Unless my opponent has an identical twin brother i'm certain of who i'm playing against.
But wait, i forgot, there's no absolutes...Sorry

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i still hate how you played this hand

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Again, this quip is very valuble to me....i'm going to take your advice and begin improving immediately

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

you said:
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there is absolutely no way you can know he doesnt have two pair or a set here, and then no way you can call this river

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and

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the only absolute is that nothing is absolute,

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hmmmm

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

So...sesults?

He had a straight? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

Yes, and i paid him off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

This the old guy, who says "just me and the best hand"?
If you dont think he bets anything but the straight and calls a bet on river with a pair of aces, then fine.
If you think he is gonna bet ONLY with something that beats u on river, why do u call.
P.S Not to sound rude or condescending, but posts like tiger_style's in this thread are one of the main reasons why we need a mod. I hope I am not out of place by saying this.

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

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This the old guy, who says "just me and the best hand"?


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If you think he is gonna bet ONLY with something that beats u on river, why do u call.


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I doubted myself. The guy hesitated before he bet. I was getting 2-1. I'm a donkey. I shouldn't have.....Take you're pick

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Not to sound rude or condescending, but posts like tiger_style's in this thread are one of the main reasons why we need a mod. I hope I am not out of place by saying this.

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agreed. I don't think that's out of place

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

ditto

Re: Donkiest play ever?
 

I like your line, you can probly find a river fold there... assuming your reads are correct- but mehhhh such an annoying fold. Also what are the chances he has A8/A9 (and is drawing dead, but has 3 outs where you win a fairly decent pot off him)?

-durrrr