A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Hey folks,

As one of the new team of crack SS mods, I figured I'd post a question I found interesting following some time spent playing the 15/30 game at the Wynn this weekend. It's something that will come up at a lot of levels, but will be particularly important for those of you at 3/6 and 5/10 moving up to higher levels where more of the play is heads-up.

Here's the scenario:

You open-raise UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. It folds around to the BB, who, like a lot of live low/mid limit players, is kind of slightly-loose-aggressive pre-flop and neutral post-flop (think 28/12/1.5 or so). The BB calls and the two of you see the flop for about 4.5 SB.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB checks, You bet, BB check-raises...


This exact hand came up this weekend. The interesting thing about it is that hero's hand is seemingly very hard to define. It is quite possible you have the best hand, and quite possible you have the best draw, but you'll rarely have both, and it's hard to decide which one you have. So you're in a sort of "Either/Or" situation (hence the title).

Here's the challenge. I encourage everyone to try it themselves before reading through the responses:

1. Estimate hero's equity. Do it in two ways. First, try and come up with a number without the aid of any tools--no paper, calculators, Pokerstove, whatever. Imagine you're at the table (or in front of your computer) and have 30 seconds or less to decide. Second, try and come up with a more analytical number. Use whatever tools necessary.

2. Come up with a plan for the rest of the hand. Consider what cards might come that would necessitate different plans.


Enjoy!

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

He'd be pretty lucky to have a Q AND a higher diamond than the T, so I think I'm just calling down. Maybe I'm hoping for a diamond, maybe I'm hoping to dodge it, but I have enough equity that I'm just calling down, having one bet go in on each street. I raise a T I think, else I just keep calling even if I catch the flush. Maybe if the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]comes off I could think about a river raise/fold to a 3-bet, but if a neutrally-aggressive player bets I'm probably just calling.

As far as your questions...

1) I'm guessing around 40% or so. Figure QT-AQ, sets, JT, any A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, or low made flushes.

2) I guess I made my plan above, I bet each street, raise/call a T, if I get check-raised on the turn, I think I call/fold the river UI. I'm least sure about that part.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

If I'm playing live I'll try to pay more attention to how villain looks rather than trying to crunch numbers in this situation. Lets see I'd figure he's either checkraising with a Q or a big diamond with a Q being more likely. How much more likely? I'm guess and say 65%Q, 25%Flush draw, 10% something else. Now getting 5.5:1 I don't think we can fold. Whew 30 seconds.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Thinking a bit more, I think I'm folding if it comes K,A no diamonds or something. If the river comes A(no diamond) and he bets, it might still be a fold.

Also, I'm a little more doubtful about value betting a river if checked to. I guess if I flush it I bet, but if I don't I'm doubting I'm getting much value out of it. If the turn/river bring lower cards I'm more apt to bet than if a K or A shows up.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Gut instinct answer: You slightly under 50% equity.

a small amount of math:

Villian has either a Q or a diamond draw better than yours. Estimating I'd say 2/3rds of the time it's a Q, 1/3rd it's a diamond draw. There's a one in three chance the diamond draw will come in by the river.

2/3rd's of the time you'll win 1/3rd of the time: 22% win
1/3rd of the time you'll win 2/3rds of the time: 22% win

Add them: 44% equity, rough estimate. I don't think i'd be doing the exact math in my head, but thinking along these lines tells me good enough for a call down.

My line is this: call flop, check/call on non-diamond turn and river, bet/fold diamond turn and river, unless this guy is capable of bluffing here.

NOTE: I think one important aspect to villians play which wasn't given is cold-calling range. Even for 28% saw flop, cold-calling ranges can vary significantly. This is one of the more important stats to figure out, especially live.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

He's the BB, defending his blind. How is he cold-calling?

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

My first guess was 45% equity. I honestly don't use pokerstove or twodimes, and don't plan to start right now. I know I should, and I will after finals is over. Don't ban me, k?

I'm calling every street, including the flop checkraise (I'm not 3 betting) but, depending on the opponent, I'm probably going to do a bit of acting so as to maximally induce future bluffs.

My thoughts on the turn:
If I see any diamonds, thats not good news for me on the river, because he's probably not betting both streets w/o a flush, and its going to be hard for me to be paid off w/o him having a flush. Once in a while, he'll have a hand with a queen and a small diamond, so that will make me happy.

I'm calling any diamond on the turn, and betting the river if checked to.

If a ten comes off I'll raise. If he 3 bets, I'll 4 bet. If he five bets I'll call, and raise if the board pairs on the end, but otherwise just call anything that comes.

River:
If a diamond comes on the turn, and he bets, and I call, I'll bet any river card if I'm checked to. If he bets on the river when a T comes, I raise, and call a 3 bet.

so 60% of the time this hand is going c/c/

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's the BB, defending his blind. How is he cold-calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my bad. Thought it was button.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]

My line is this: call flop, check/call on non-diamond turn and river, bet/fold diamond turn and river, unless this guy is capable of bluffing here.

NOTE: I think one important aspect to villians play which wasn't given is cold-calling range. Even for 28% saw flop, cold-calling ranges can vary significantly. This is one of the more important stats to figure out, especially live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, though villian was button, not BB.

Seeing as we're in position, I call down, and bet if checked to no matter what the cards.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Yeah, like I mentioned in my follow-up, most of the hands we are ahead of are A/K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, so if an A/K hits, we're behind pretty much everything. The K isn't as bad as the A for a pair (more likely to have Ax than Kx), but then it makes JT a straight, and maybe pairs up KJ or KT if he's betting a gutshot/flushdraw combo. So I think we can fold those cards.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be a lot easier to discuss if we did this as a play along.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Well, maybe I'm playing too much 6max lately but my estimate is a lot higher than everyone elses. My first thought was about 56% and I would be pretty shocked if it was less than 50%.

Edit: meh, thought about it some more and I would revise my estimate to like 52%, I'll fool around with PS a little later.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Our equity is going to be between 50-55%. Most of the time we're up against a better diamond or a Q, and those two possiblities cancel out. Occassionally the BB will have a 9 or a lower pocket pair with a diamond, but he will also occasionally have flopped a set or a flush, or even top pair with a higher diamond.

I always just call the check-raise.

If the turn is a diamond, I'm betting if he checks to me and just calling if he bets.

If the turn is a non-diamond...I'm raising. I'm raising non-diamond aces, I'm raising non-diamond kings, I'm raising everything, with the intent of taking a free showdown if I don't improve on the river. If I get three-bet, I'm calling and then folding the river UI.

Will

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.5744 % 57.32% 00.26% { TdTh }
Hand 2: 42.4256 % 42.17% 00.26% { JJ-99, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8d8s, 7c7d, 7d7h, 7d7s, 6c6d, 6d6h, 6d6s, 55, 4c4d, 4d4h, 4d4s, AdJd, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdJd, KdTd, Kc9c, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Q7s+, Q5s, J9s+, T9s, AcJd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AsJd, AcTd, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, AhTd, AsTd, Ac9d, Ad9c, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9d, As9d, Ac8d, Ad8c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, As8d, Ad7c, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ac6d, Ad6c, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ah6d, As6d, Ad5c, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad4c, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad3c, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad2c, Ad2h, Ad2s, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KcTs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, Kc9d, Kd9c, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kh9d, Ks9d, Kd8c, Kd8h, Kd8s, Kd7c, Kd7h, Kd7s, QJo, QcTd, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QhTd, QsTd, Q9o, Qc8d, Qd8c, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qh8d, Qs8d, Qc7d, Qd7c, Qd7h, Qd7s, Qh7d, Qs7d, JTo, Jc9d, Jd9c, Jd9h, Jd9s, Jh9d, Js9d, Jc8d, Jd8c, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jh8d, Js8d, Tc9d, Td9c, Td9h, Td9s, Th9d, Ts9d, Tc8d, Td8c, Td8h, Td8s, Th8d, Ts8d, 9c8d, 9d8c, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9h8d, 9s8d, 9c7d, 9d7c, 9d7h, 9d7s, 9h7d, 9s7d, 9c6d, 9d6c, 9d6h, 9d6s, 9h6d, 9s6d, 8c7d, 8d7c, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7d, 8s7d, 7c6d, 7d6c, 7d6h, 7d6s, 7h6d, 7s6d }



Think I included enough hands? Now the 57% should be pushed down a little bit because it's a little more likely he'd c/r the flop with hands that have better than 43% equity, but not that much since even the hands that are below that are not far below that. I think a reasonable equity guess is anywhere between 50-55% as Will suggested.


Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%

If you could explain why, that would be even better. I'll post the answers a little later with some explanations. I think they are pretty interesting.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake. Thanks dude. This is a good analysis.

I originally projected the equity number way too low (I think my original intuition was 35% or something).

As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).

My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

What was interesting for me was that the turn was a blank and the river was a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A. Villain bet out and I determined that there was very little way I was ahead and folded.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
As it stands, I think 45-50% or so is reasonable. (Remember this is a live game and people tend to be more straightforward).


[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow forgot about that. 45-50 sounds about right then. I'd still expect 50-55 online though.

[ QUOTE ]
My line at the time was to simply call down, betting if checked to, raising a T but not raising a small .


[/ QUOTE ]

That likely would have been my line too, but I'm not 100% sure any more. I think there are a few cards besides T's which I might raise now. Want to take a crack at my little matching quiz? I think it could embarass most people, including myself. Hopefully I didn't mess it up.

[ QUOTE ]
I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Jake

[/ QUOTE ]

I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you and your excellent posts... and so the Small Stakes love-fest continues.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
Here's one thing to consider that a few of you haven't:

What if the turn or river is an A? What about a K?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming non-diamond?
If it's the turn: bet if checked to, otherwise call.
If it's the river: bet if checked to, otherwise fold.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

--blind response--

I think raising this flop and checking through the flop will cause our opponent to play as straightforwardly as possible.

If he has a weak queen and no diamond, he'll likely just call and lead a non-:diamdond: turn. if the turn comes with a diamond he may try to check/fold and then donk the river after you check through.

If he has a made flush he's looking to go to war. he'll cap the flop and lead the turn. We can either call and pray his diamonds are lower than ten, or just fold out and move on. If he checks the turn, we just check behind and draw to beat him.

If he has a middle pair and one diamond (like 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) we get the max value out of our hand here, and when we check through we know we can call a bet on the river no matter what it is.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Hi Deranged,

Nice post. My off-the-top-of-my-head feeling is that you have 40% equity. My plan is to play the flop and turn hard, generally checking behind on the river UI.

If the turn is a dimond, I'll probably check behind planning to call a river bet or bet it myself if checked to. If the turn is a ten, I'll get aggressive. If the turn is an ace, I may take a free card if offered.

-Eric

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Does anyone recall a similar hand from HPFAP or TOP or some 2+2 book? I seem to recall an instance but can't find it.

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

I'd guess we have somewhere in the 40-45% equity, but since it's going to be hard to tell when we are ahead or when we are drawing I think I would play the hand we the intention of making sure at least one bet goes in on every street (calling or betting if checked to). I also would only raise a T or the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
Will,

I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE the idea of ever possibly getting three-bet on the turn. It makes me hurl just thinking about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really have this reaction. First off, I think our turn raise gets three-bet really rarely. Obviously getting three-bet is lame, but we'll have outs plenty of the time. Even if he has a made flush, the ultimate WCS, the flop-checkraise indicates that it's probably a low flush, and diamonds might make us good. We also have plenty of outs against sets and two pair, and it is very easy to fold the river UI...it's not like a guy you describe as "neutral postflop" is going to three-bet the turn AND lead the river with the ace of diamonds after we've shown so much strength.

So that's the bad. On the other hand, the turn raise does so many good things. A portion of the time we will be well ahead and extracting value. Another portion of the time, we will be making a fairly strong semi-bluff/free showdown play. It's going to be really rare that villain's holding is strong enough to three-bet. And if the turn is a non-diamond ace or king, then a raise will really put Qx to the test.

There's too much good stuff going on in these either/or situations to not raise.

Will

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

[ QUOTE ]
Various turn cards make for very interesting changes in Hero's equity. The old non-adjusted equity was 57%. I think it would be fun for people to match the following Turn cards with Hero's new equity (non-adjusted):

1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A. 75%
B. 44%
C. 59%
D. 52%
E. 59%



[/ QUOTE ]

Answers below are in white:

<font color="white">
1. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 75%
2. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] - 59%
3. 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] - 52%
4. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 59%
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - 44%


The 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]: The important thing to realize here is that most turns will NOT drastically effect Hero's equity. If the turn is a non-diamond blank, we are still ahead of nines, still ahead of flush draws, and still behind queens. If the turn is a diamond blank, we pull ahead of queens, but fall behind the flush draws. In either case, we still find ourselves at about 50/50. Either/or [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

The 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is not quite as blankish since it completes straight and two pair draws that pull our opponents ahead. It also gives us a gutshot. Overall our equity is lowered a bit, but not much.

Finally, the aces. The A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is a bad card for Hero because many of the AdX hands just pulled ahead and the queens are still ahead. 9Xd is pretty much all we are still ahead of.

It might seem like the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would be a bad card, but in fact it is THE VERY BEST NON-TEN CARD that could fall. Why? Because it eliminates so many of villain's flush draws (making it more likely he has a queen) while giving Hero a flush. This, I think, is a VERY important idea (adjusting our opponent's range)... and I would raise the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. </font>

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Jake,

I'll give it a shot.

1. A

The A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would seem to definitely be the best of those four cards. We have sucked out on any better pair hand. Because it's the A, it means villain can't have it and we are only worry about two possible better flushes instead of three.

2. C (or E)

A small [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is good for us but not as good as a big [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], since it's more likely that villain has a bigger draw he just hit.

3. E (or C)

This is a decent card for us because it gives us extra outs. JT isn't that likely for villain anyway, and the value of the extra outs are more valuable to us than that card is to villain on average.

4. D

A total blank isn't that good for us. While it is unlikely to make villains hand better, it means our hand doesn't improve. We basically stay at about where we were at against villain roughly, which was in the mid-50s.

5. B

This seems to be very clearly the worst card we could hit. Any A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw has just improved to beat us, and we're drawing near dead against them now. Our hand doesn't improve against any of the hands we're drawing against, while several of villain's hands do improve against ours.

Am I right? I promise I did this without looking...

Re: A Mod Challenge: The Either/Or Idea
 

Aww [censored].