expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

expert is in is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG calls, a tough player raises, expert calls and big blind calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Expert checks, BB checks, UTG checks, tough player bets, expert calls...

is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

I know that if you said you saw a random guy do it, everyone would say it was bad.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

It will likely win you a small/medium pot or lose you a big one.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

folding >> raising >>>>>>>>> calling here, IMO.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

It could be a good play if he made it to check-raise the turn to make the tough guy fold, knowing that the chance the tough guy would fold is hight enough to make the play worth it.

Soh

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

There are still 2 guys to act, and a lot of bad turn cards to come. Looks like a fold.

But depending on the other players and expert's image it could be an expert play....however I doubt it!

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

Taken by itself, it looks terrible to me. If this play is to venture to the expert side of the spectrum, then it has to be used to set something very specific up later in the hand against very specific opponents. It just looks like it's way too vulnerable a hand to be calling with.

It will be difficult to play no matter what Hero does though. I guess the expertness of playing it comes in the ability for one to play this hand profitiably at all, and to make the correct, difficult decisions a majority of the time.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

This expert play would be to fold preflop.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

This is pretty bad, unless there are some very specific reads involved, but at this point, I'm not even sure what reads you'd need to make this an "expert" play.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

being an expert doesn't necessarily mean playing at your top game every hand.

this hand though is fairly far from i would consider an "expert"'s top game. so much so that its puzzling...or amazing and i dont understand.

Barron

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

I don't have my copy with me, but I think this play is discussed in HE4AP, possibly under slowplaying. The goal is to mimic a big hand, maybe a set of 4s that was afraid of check-raising and facing the field with 2 cold. You need the other players to fold, but they hopefully will on this flop. I think the play continues by leading out on the turn. I'll check my copy when I get home, or someone else can.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

lapse in judgment. A raise looks clearly better than a call to me.

If you are trying to setup a big bluff on the turn, then ok, every once in a while perhaps it's not terrible. I like the straightforward raise to isolate because you have the best hand or fold because you don't.

-eric

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

Is Erik123 the SB? This looks like something that Erik does a lot of.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

Trying to determine whether or not this play is expert is trying to take the forum analysis of poker hands to new levels. It's impossible.

My thoughts
 

This was a 10 handed 100/200 game and the 'expert' is a known 2+2er who has sat with over 100K on the table and seems to be a winning player. his numbers are something like 18/13/2.3
He clearly froze up on the flop. He didn't have the courage to bet out and then failed to fold which was the best option when it comes back to him bet having players to act after him or check raise which is second best. This may have been a result of multi-tabling and just auto checking the flop when he didn't hit his set multi-way.

I believe it is clear that the proper play here given that he called pre flop is to lead out on the flop with a bet.

I think this flop play is a pretty bad mistake and i was very surprised to see it. I've seen him go overboard with action on the turn but that can be explained away by shania. However, as someone mentioned we all play our C game from time to time.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
expert is in is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG calls, a tough player raises, expert calls and big blind calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Expert checks, BB checks, UTG checks, tough player bets, expert calls...

is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

[/ QUOTE ]

Misplayed preflop, misplayed flop...unless you open fold here I think you misplayed the turn. HU is whole different story, but against a tough player with people yet to act this is a sucker play. Playing this from the small blind is retarded. Big time leak. I'm not trying to be rude - although I do try that sometimes - but this is simple stuff. I gues the only question after the preflop error should be "Do I lead this flop?" Check calling not an option.

Re: My thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I believe it is clear that the proper play here given that he called pre flop is to lead out on the flop with a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is leading the flop better than checkraising?

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It could be a good play if he made it to check-raise the turn to make the tough guy fold, knowing that the chance the tough guy would fold is hight enough to make the play worth it.

Soh

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough players aren't usually just folding like girls to the turn checkraise.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
folding >> raising >>>>>>>>> calling here, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd usually agree, but in high, aggressive games I think the right play is often to call this with stuff like 55 or a 9, and raise it up if you have AK or a set or even a flush draw.

It depends on whether or not your opponents respect you or not though. If they don't then I like raising or folding this better.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

I disagree with you all who think that this has been horribly played.
First, the pre-flop call is a no-brainer. He's small blind with two players already in, maybe three if BB calls. He certainly has the odds to try to hit a set. Small pairs are much more playable than most people realize since they are easy to play post-flop.
And the call on the flop isn't all that bad either. One, the raiser will bet even with a hand like AQ. His 55 may be best. And if it is AND his opponent(s) make a mistake of checking the turn, he may be able to win the pot. add to that the small chance he may hit a set on the turn. Given the $ already in the pot, it is not at all unreasonable to throw in one more small bet just in case.
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.

In fact, I would argue that if you automatically play contrary to this all the time (auto-folding SB in this situation or auto folding on the flop without thinking thru the possibilities), you are giving up significant profit potential (though it will help to reduce your variance).

(and it seems to me that the best high limit players don't shy away from the high-variance but profitable (even if marginally so) plays.)

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

Well, you wont feel like an expert when he shows you A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but you will when he whiffs with AQo.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

"the call on the flop isn't all that bad either. One, the raiser will bet even with a hand like AQ. His 55 may be best. And if it is AND his opponent(s) make a mistake of checking the turn, he may be able to win the pot. add to that the small chance he may hit a set on the turn. Given the $ already in the pot, it is not at all unreasonable to throw in one more small bet just in case.
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much."

I agree with every line. This is not an autofold for me either. I think you left out two important things though.

1) He had the five of clubs. Without it, I would fold for sure. That's one of those little things I didn't use to pay all that much attention to and now it is more often than not the determining factor to whether or not I stay in on the flop with an under-pocket-pair and a twotone board. With the five of clubs, I might or might not call, depending on the dependencies.

It's not just that without the club five I could hit my set and complete a flush for someone on the turn. It's also that I could hit my set and put a three-flush on board, giving equity and determination to anyone with a lone club, while simultaneously taking away my threebet power on the turn.

2) With a board of K-9-4, if a five comes on the turn, it does not complete an openender or a double gutshot, or give anyone a one-card straight draw going in to the river. If the board was say K-7-6, I'd fold on the flop even if I had the club five.

Tommy

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it--I prefer folding and raising to calling. The key here is that calling encourages broadway gutshots to call, whereas a raise will probably knock those hands out. If the flop was K-8-4 I wouldn't mind calling as much.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

I agree 100% with phish, everything he said.

To also add: a lot of high limit players when OOP vs a PFR will basically either c/r or c/f, so by check calling he is not making his hand any more vulnerable since they were or weren't going to fold whether it's 1 or 2 cold. Obv JT or QJ might be exceptions. But I really don't see it as a bad change up play in a lot of lineups.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's why a raise is better than a call. You are out of position with a very marginal hand. Your equity is only good if noone has a flushdraw or a made hand over 5s. By just calling your flush draw is negated by letting in players behind holding a higher [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
And by only calling you can be pretty sure a tough player in position will bet a blank turn on this board. And with the two players in the middle still in there, any overcard to your 5 looks like bad news - and it will be expensive to find out how bad!

I can see some reason in just calling to "hide" a possible monster hand, and making a play for the pot on the turn. But would you really choose a flop with a flushdraw and a gutshot straight draw to make this play with a set? To make this play here would take some pretty solid reads!

Calling the flop to make a play on a later street should mainly be considered a NL play - you simply don't have the firepower and hence folding equity to make it work in FL (again, against certain players it may be the correct play once in a while)

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.


I think that's why a raise is better than a call. You are out of position with a very marginal hand. Your equity is only good if noone has a flushdraw or a made hand over 5s. By just calling your flush draw is negated by letting in players behind holding a higher [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
And by only calling you can be pretty sure a tough player in position will bet a blank turn on this board. And with the two players in the middle still in there, any overcard to your 5 looks like bad news - and it will be expensive to find out how bad!

I can see some reason in just calling to "hide" a possible monster hand, and making a play for the pot on the turn. But would you really choose a flop with a flushdraw and a gutshot straight draw to make this play with a set? To make this play here would take some pretty solid reads!

Calling the flop to make a play on a later street should mainly be considered a NL play - you simply don't have the firepower and hence folding equity to make it work in FL (again, against certain players it may be the correct play once in a while)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're missing the point. His hand is not good enough to warrant putting more than one small bet in. And he has no intention of bluffing at the pot.

The call was a long shot meant solely to preserve his equity in the pot. If anyone bets the turn, he folds. He's hopping to either get real lucky and hit a set, or his hand is good and his opponent(s) chicken out on the betting.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with you all who think that this has been horribly played.
First, the pre-flop call is a no-brainer. He's small blind with two players already in, maybe three if BB calls. He certainly has the odds to try to hit a set. Small pairs are much more playable than most people realize since they are easy to play post-flop.
And the call on the flop isn't all that bad either. One, the raiser will bet even with a hand like AQ. His 55 may be best. And if it is AND his opponent(s) make a mistake of checking the turn, he may be able to win the pot. add to that the small chance he may hit a set on the turn. Given the $ already in the pot, it is not at all unreasonable to throw in one more small bet just in case.
The only reasonable argument against that call is that there are two players behind him to act. This would push the flop call to -EV, but I don't think by much.

In fact, I would argue that if you automatically play contrary to this all the time (auto-folding SB in this situation or auto folding on the flop without thinking thru the possibilities), you are giving up significant profit potential (though it will help to reduce your variance).

(and it seems to me that the best high limit players don't shy away from the high-variance but profitable (even if marginally so) plays.)

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason small pairs "are easy to play" postflop is because the majority of the time you will be folding. Calling a tight early raiser with this hand from the small blind is far from automatic. In fact, many consider this a clear error. Regardless, unless you are HU the flop call is horrible and is clearly a money loser. Now, if preflop raiser does not have a hand, he can take a free card on the turn if he choses or make you guess and invest 2BB (on a checkraise I presume) after he bets in this rather small pot. There are so many cards that can ruin your hand on the turn and river IF YOU ARE NOT ALREADY BEAT that merely calling this flop is absurd. If I call this from the sb I have to checkraise this flop and lead the turn against most opponents.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're missing the point. His hand is not good enough to warrant putting more than one small bet in. And he has no intention of bluffing at the pot.

The call was a long shot meant solely to preserve his equity in the pot. If anyone bets the turn, he folds. He's hopping to either get real lucky and hit a set, or his hand is good and his opponent(s) chicken out on the betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect the "expert" to be playing in a game where people do not "chicken out"!!

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
expert is in is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

UTG calls, a tough player raises, expert calls and big blind calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Expert checks, BB checks, UTG checks, tough player bets, expert calls...

is this call an expert play or lapse in judgement?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a bad call preflop. You are going to lose money long term playing small pairs in a raised pot against a few opponents.

88% of the time you will not flop a set.
.88 * 1 BB = -.88

12% of the time you flop a set, however, empirical studies with TTH shows that you will be outdrawn 12% of the time.

You have 3 opponents here. Let's say you get 2 opponents calling 3 bets on the Flop, 2 calling 2 bets on the Turn and 1 calling 1 bet on the River. That's a lot of action for so few opponents, and totals 8 BBs to go with the 3 BBs they posted preflop - 11 BBs you win.

(.12*.88)*11 = +1.16 BBs

When you are outdrawn, you pay 1BB preflop. 1.5 BBs on the Flop, 2 BBs on the Turn and 1 BB on the River.

(.12*.12)*5.5 = -.08 BB

1.16 - .08 - .88 = .20 BBs * 100 instances = 20 BB +EV

In your case, you are not going to see that much action. In fact, in most all cases, we are not going to see that much action against so few opponents.

I see it as an easy fold pre-flop.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

You're in the SB, so it's .75 BBs pre-flop;

.75*.88 = .66

1.16 - .08 - .66 = .42 * 100 instances = 42 BBs.

Still, you would need to be able to win a considerable amount of those pots unimproved in order for this to be a +EV play long-term.

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're in the SB, so it's .75 BBs pre-flop;

.75*.88 = .66

1.16 - .08 - .66 = .42 * 100 instances = 42 BBs.

Still, you would need to be able to win a considerable amount of those pots unimproved in order for this to be a +EV play long-term.

[/ QUOTE ]

what am I missing?

did you just prove, given your assumptions on post-flop action, that playing for set value ALONE wins 42BBs over 100 trials?

then you seem to contradict yourself and say you need to also win unimproved to make this profitable.

which is it? or where am i missing your point?

Re: expert play or lapse in judgement?
 

[ QUOTE ]

1.16 - .08 - .66 = .42 * 100 instances = 42 BBs.


[/ QUOTE ]


What are you doing in this calculation?

Krishan