NBA picks
I am bored so I am going to test a theory for over unders in the NBA. I am going to try this over 50 games and see how it goes.
DEN/CLE - under 203 - 1 unit Hou/Sea - Under 193 - 1 unit MINN/SA - over 174 - 5 units Going to track progress here. Any feedback on picks are appreciated. |
Re: NBA picks
Is the theory a secret? Is there a reason we can't know it? Is there a reason you can't track it on pen and paper in your basement, if you're not going to let us in on your brainchild? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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Re: NBA picks
2-1 YTD +5 units
I am going to have to add a factor of whether someone is returning from injury. McGrady obviously makes a huge difference for Houston. And yes I will share my formula soon enough. |
Re: NBA picks
What is the theory, or what is it based on? Niss pretty much hit the nail on the head -- if you aren't going to give us any more info than this, it isn't very useful to post it.
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Re: NBA picks
Also just FYI, you need to include the juice in your unit totals. So your total would be +4.9 units.
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Re: NBA picks
I am working out the final details of it now. Basically what I am doing is taking both teams average points scored and allowed and averaging them together for a base.
I am then taking into consideration a calculation of FG% x Assists x TO's forced (TURN OVERS) FG% allowed x Assists allowed x TO's I do this for each team which produces a number that will fall into the category of whether I will add or shave points from the teams averages. My grid at present looks like this. <950 950-999 1000-1049 1050-1099 >1099 -5 -3 1 3 5 So for the game tonight between MIL/Bos I produce the following results. MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784 0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196 BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756 0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196 195.5 5 200.5 I multiplied in a 2 because of earlier work I did in researching this. It has no significance. So if you eliminate it you just move the numbers down. Yes this is stupid. Anyway, I am right now focusing on games that produce a difference of at least 5. Bodog has this game currently at 202 so I will be laying off of this one. The 3 games I am playing using this tonight will be. (719) Seattle SuperSonics vs. (720) Portland Trail Blazers Over 191 (-105) Fri@10:05p (709) Denver Nuggets vs. (710) New Jersey Nets Over 191 (-105) Fri@7:35p (705) Utah Jazz vs. (706) Indiana Pacers Over 171 Fri@7:05p Utah and Indiana produced 177. Den and NJ produced 196. Sea and Port produced 196. I didn't have time this morning to do all the games but here are a few more. Mia/Phi - at 200 on bodog. I produced 197. Pho/NOH - at 196 on bodog. I produced 197. 1 unit each for these games. I will make sure to adjust for juice. 2-1 YTD +4.9 units I am open to any feedback good or bad. I am just trying to figure out a means to do my due diligence when selecting the over/under for a game. I don't claim this to be a god sent method to bet the games. Just a theory that hopefully can be developed. Flame away. |
Re: NBA picks
that's some wild [censored]
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Re: NBA picks
I think Niss is rather nosey.
Gonzalez |
Re: NBA picks
I got a chance to pull the rest of the information. Here are the numbers.
FG% factor Assists TO's Total O/U Bodog MIA 0.455 2 19 13 224.77 0.432 2 20 15 259.2 0 Phil 0.461 2 20 15 276.6 0.469 2 22 12 247.632 1008.202 196 (average score) 1 (factor) 197 (my total) 200 (bodog line) Not touching unless greater than or equal 5. Den 0.445 2 23 15.8 323.426 0.439 2 22 17 328.372 NJN 0.44 2 21.6 14.7 279.4176 0.432 2 19.9 13.7 235.55232 1166.76792 191 5 196 191 Utah 0.418 2 20 14 234.08 0.428 2 18 16 246.528 IND 0.452 2 19 15 257.64 0.425 2 18 16 244.8 983.048 180 -3 177 171 MIL 0.433 2 21.6 14 261.8784 0.462 2 21 14.9 289.1196 BOS 0.463 2 20.7 15.8 302.85756 0.448 2 20.2 17 307.6864 1161.54196 195.5 5 200.5 202 Pho 0.459 2 26.1 16 383.3568 0.431 2 15.7 14 189.4676 NOH 0.436 2 18.4 15.2 243.88096 0.451 2 17.9 14.6 235.72868 1052.43404 192 5 197 196 Sea 0.437 2 20.9 15.4 281.30564 0.489 2 22.7 14.2 315.24852 Port 0.434 2 16 12.6 174.9888 0.451 2 19.4 15.3 267.73164 1039.2746 193 3 196 191 Orl 0.431 2 17 13.8 202.2252 0.449 2 19.5 16.6 290.6826 Dal 0.463 2 17.1 14.1 223.26786 0.442 2 17.1 14 211.6296 927.80526 184.65 -5 179 187 GSW 0.431 2 21.3 16.1 295.60566 0.435 2 21.4 14.1 262.5138 Tor 0.436 2 19.8 15 258.984 0.493 2 23.3 13.9 319.33582 1136.43928 197.85 5 203 205 CHI 0.44 2 22.2 16 312.576 0.439 2 21.5 15.6 294.4812 DET 0.463 2 23.9 13.6 300.98704 0.446 2 19.6 11.9 208.05008 1116.09432 192.2 5 197 195 WASH 0.434 2 19.2 16.1 268.31616 0.447 2 22 13.8 271.4184 LAL 0.441 2 20.3 14.8 264.98808 0.447 2 20.5 14.2 260.2434 1064.96604 195.3 3 198 200 I will have a total of 4 picks tonight. Dal/Orl under 187 - 1 unit ADDED |
12/16/2005 - Results
Didn't think Grant Hill would have that big of an impact but he did. Second night a returning star makes a big difference.
3-1 isn't bad though. +2 units - vig 5-2 YTD +7 units - vig |
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