Re: Helmuth: What a bad Call Ferguson made.
 

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I believe it is incorrect for Jesus to call with his Ax, especially since Phil has been playing quite tight.

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People keep saying stuff like this. Did you actually run any numbers, or is this just your intuition? Because I guarantee you Chris Ferguson has examined these situations very carefully, and made his decision accordingly.

Re: Helmuth: What a bad Call Ferguson made.
 

And was Phil really playing that tight? It seemed to me he was in the mid range of hands played.

Re: Helmuth: What a bad Call Ferguson made.
 

If KJs is the bottom of his range:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 60.1140 % [ 00.57 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 39.8860 % [ 00.37 00.03 ] { A5s }

If Phill is playing closer to optimally:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.8819 % [ 00.41 00.06 ] { A5s }
Hand 2: 53.1181 % [ 00.47 00.06 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo }

I watched this a while ago, and cant remember what the blinds/antes were. But lets say they were 12000/6000/1000 (i dont even remember what the ante structure was). This means ro call 96k, Chris needs 44% equity to make a call and break even. So, assuming the second range I gave for phill is significantly closer to optimal then the first (Im quite sure it is if I got the blinds right), its never a significant mistake for phill to call here because, even if Phill's range is closer to the 1st I gave, Chris will make up the equity he loses in this hand when Phill doesnt push when he should.

Re: Helmuth: What a bad Call Ferguson made.
 

You aren't taking into account the stacks of the other players and the payout structure (which you need to do to figure out the $EV of the call). If anyone can get all of the numbers, I can run this in ICM. I bet the call was good.

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If KJs is the bottom of his range:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 60.1140 % [ 00.57 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A6s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A7o, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 39.8860 % [ 00.37 00.03 ] { A5s }

If Phill is playing closer to optimally:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 46.8819 % [ 00.41 00.06 ] { A5s }
Hand 2: 53.1181 % [ 00.47 00.06 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K8s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo }

I watched this a while ago, and cant remember what the blinds/antes were. But lets say they were 12000/6000/1000 (i dont even remember what the ante structure was). This means ro call 96k, Chris needs 44% equity to make a call and break even. So, assuming the second range I gave for phill is significantly closer to optimal then the first (Im quite sure it is if I got the blinds right), its never a significant mistake for phill to call here because, even if Phill's range is closer to the 1st I gave, Chris will make up the equity he loses in this hand when Phill doesnt push when he should.

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