Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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Holy [censored], i even bet you ignored GoT! Just listen; both of you. Why ignore? Admitting you are wrong opens up a whole new world.

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Is "both of you" me??? I perfectly well understand the difference between "Risk of Ruin" and "downswing", and it is IRRELEVANT to what I am saying. I am merely proposing a better model for either downswings or risk of ruin. Under the new model, for both downswings and risk of ruin, it should more probable that both/either would be due to bad play and not luck, as opposed to the predictions made by the old model.

Apologies for only skimming the "Risk of Ruin" conversation, but it's offset by the fact that no one will refer to my original post, which is clearly correct, the next time this conversation comes up.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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That out of 100 -1.0 BB/100 winners (losers), at any given time 16 of them will experience a 300 BB downswing...

That out of 100 -2.0 BB/100 winners (losers), at any given time 32 of them will experience a 300 BB downswing...


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Shouldn't more than half of the losing players (i.e., more than 50 here) be in this category?

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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saying 'PERIOD!' here basically makes you an idiot rigoletto. i don't have a firm position, but i don't know very much about math. those that do say it's statistically likely, so i'm inclined to believe them, but i also know that i wasn't playing my best when i took my only 300bb spill. ultimately i don't really care.

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I don't mind being an idiot here (hell, it happens in so many aspects of my life). If my PERIOD comment provoked some people it propably just enhanced the discussion. I do however find it intersting that 1800 and Got respond so emotionally to a question that according to them can be decided by pure math. Why don't they just tell me how many of a 100 of the following will experience a 300BB downswing over 500,000 hands:

a 1BB/hr. player with a 15BB SD
a 1BB/hr. player with a 17BB SD
a 1BB/hr. player with a 18BB SD

If they so believe that the math is with them, it should be easy for them to prove me wrong!

I don't claim to be a great, or even good, poker player. And I will not dispute that some players on this board has experienced big downswings when playing optimally. I just submit that a majority of players experiencing downswings should admit that their downswing is more likely (+50%) to be caused by some form of bad play than a statistically anommally. And they should be more humble to this fact than indicated by this thread. I also refer to my original post in beleiving that the speed of online play has made some people mistake statistics.

I have myself experienced 2 +300 BB downswings in my poker playing life. And I can confidently state that both of those where mainly due to bad play and tilt on my part (a long with other major downswoings). The big problem about these swings is that noone (and least of all your self) can determine wether you are playing bad or just experiencing a 'normal occurence'. If we are just going to choose between these two options I believe the 'playing bad' is the most likely one. And that you will gain most by treating it as such.

In short I think we do everybody a favor by assuming that a 300BB downswing is not normal. Anybody who has a downswing of that magnitude deserve a better answer than: 'it happens'. And the wast majority will be better of examining their game than just 'come to terms' with the swings. And those of you who have proved to be offended by this thread, I suggest you pack your egos (you are most very good players anyway, so you don't need to wave your dicks) and use this forum to help less gifted players rather than proving your own worth! I say this only because several reputed posters seems to be responding to this issue emotionally rather than rationally.

Or am I taking it to far in assuming that we have a responsiblilty to new and unexperienced posters?

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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Quote:
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That out of 100 -1.0 BB/100 winners (losers), at any given time 16 of them will experience a 300 BB downswing...

That out of 100 -2.0 BB/100 winners (losers), at any given time 32 of them will experience a 300 BB downswing...



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Shouldn't more than half of the losing players (i.e., more than 50 here) be in this category?

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All losing players will experience a 300 BB "downswing" if they play long enough. Altough, you can really only have a downswing if you are winning player. Losing players are expected to lose and have occasional upswings.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

yeah it's an important thing. i mean, with the stance everybody has about it i'm sure people who are in the middle of a 300+ bb downswing don't even care about it or consider the situation at all. they're probably like, "hey i've lost almost 20k playing 30/60 but who cares? it's totally normal, i didn't even notice it and since i did i haven't given it any thought."

we owe it to these folks to speak up because i'm sure they're out there playing sub-optimally but they keep logging massive amounts of hours and sleep like babies at night.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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yeah it's an important thing. i mean, with the stance everybody has about it i'm sure people who are in the middle of a 300+ bb downswing don't even care about it or consider the situation at all. they're probably like, "hey i've lost almost 20k playing 30/60 but who cares? it's totally normal, i didn't even notice it and since i did i haven't given it any thought."

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Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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yeah it's an important thing. i mean, with the stance everybody has about it i'm sure people who are in the middle of a 300+ bb downswing don't even care about it or consider the situation at all. they're probably like, "hey i've lost almost 20k playing 30/60 but who cares? it's totally normal, i didn't even notice it and since i did i haven't given it any thought."

we owe it to these folks to speak up because i'm sure they're out there playing sub-optimally but they keep logging massive amounts of hours and sleep like babies at night.

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I would love it if I could sleep like a baby through a 300 bb downswing. I start to think that I suck right around a 20 big bet downwing, then the next 280 are basically torture.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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yeah it's an important thing. i mean, with the stance everybody has about it i'm sure people who are in the middle of a 300+ bb downswing don't even care about it or consider the situation at all. they're probably like, "hey i've lost almost 20k playing 30/60 but who cares? it's totally normal, i didn't even notice it and since i did i haven't given it any thought."

we owe it to these folks to speak up because i'm sure they're out there playing sub-optimally but they keep logging massive amounts of hours and sleep like babies at night.

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All right, I'll bite! If my point is moot, why is then so important for some posters to assure that THEIR big downswings are not a problem?

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

Although I don't contribute as much as some of the posters.

After experiencing two bad runs in the 30-60 of the 300 BB magnitude.

I would have to agree with the OP, that yes I noticed a lot of poor play and tilt involved with both of my big downswings.

At least a good 30% of both my downswings was from poor play and tilt while playing at a very fast paced of multible tables.

But I would also like to add, just because you are the best poker players online ever known to man and haven't had a -300BB swing does not rule out the fact that it's very possible for the everyday player who plays perfect poker despite losing 5-6k in the first 50 hands he sits down to to just incredibly awful beats.

And no I did not lose in the 30-60 and I still won for over 1 BB over a decent sample size. The reason I say this is, I don't consider myself one of the best online poker playing gifts to mankind nor do I consider myself a losing player. I just came to realize that when you are playing multible tables of 3-4 handed games, swings this large should be of no surprise considering the amount of hands and SD/100 you will come to have every hour, since who really goes to showdown 35% and wins 60% of their showdowns playing 3-4 handed??? and have a 15BB SD/100....

maybe I'm missing something since I'm not as knowledgeable and such a good poker player as some of the other posters but I find it very possible for any terrific poker player to lose 300 BB at the speed these online games go.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

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My understanding is that the Math that produces the 300 BB figure assumes a player whose result for each session are produced by a single bell curve, with a mean and standard deviation. This assumption is ridiculous (I don't fault those who have worked with it, since it simplifies a lot of calculations).

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This is a great point, since all of the "math" thrown around in this thread assumes the standard bell curve. The win/loss of a poker hand, especially for a full ring table, is not normally distributed. Think about it, a typical losing hand costs you anywhere from 0.5-5.0BB, while a typical winning hand in a multiway pot can gain you 7-10BB. This would make the distribution skewed to the right and not normal. Also, the large majority of your hands you will win/lose 0BB which is incredibly close to your expected value of 0.01-0.03BB, so the distribution is probably very leptokurtic.