Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

I don't understand this thread, seriously.

I don't understand your talk about "true ROI" or whatever, and your replies to the comments you get.

ROI is a very simple thing, it's your return on the investment for the games you have played. Your ROI for the $22 is a number, a fact. Either you know it or you don't, but if you don't, it's simply because you didn't keep a good enough record. If you don't know it for sure you can guess at it, nothing more.

If however, your ROI after playing (a lifetime number of) X SNGs is R%, and you, for some reason, claim that your "true ROI" is >R% since you've been running bad at those X SNGs, there's no way you can convince any one that it's true, and what's more - I suspect you don't understand what "running bad" means. Of course, it's possible that after 2X or 3X or NX SNGs your ROI will stable on a higher number than R, and only then you'll be able to judge whether you ran bad (or good) on some portions of your overall sample, but until that point you can't do that.

Bottom line: It simply doesn't make much sense, IMO, to claim that your "true ROI" is higher than your real ROI for your whole "career" (however short it is) as a SNG player. It's like saying that you are a better player than what your actual results show. Note that it MIGHT be true (due to very bad luck), but it will take a very strong player to go over A LOT (and I mean A LOT) of your games in order to say that. You can not say it about yourself, period.

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this thread, seriously.

I don't understand your talk about "true ROI" or whatever, and your replies to the comments you get.


[/ QUOTE ]

He means expected value of ROI. Clearly this is not the same thing as a currently measured ROI.

The ROI EV is of course something which cannot be measured, so it's always a little dubious to make claims about what it is.

eastbay

Re: A post to put all of your results in to perspective...
 

[ QUOTE ]
He means expected value of ROI.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, of course, that's what I meant by "true ROI". My point is the same (and you seem to agree with it).

Making claims about one's own "EV of ROI", which is supposedly "higher" than one's measured lifetime ROI, is very problematic to say the least.