Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

I think fnurt pretty much covered my thoughts. The only thing I would add is that when I'm in hyperaggresive overdrive I fold the SB maybe 1 out of 3 or 4 times specifically so that the BB won't put my range of hands at any 2. In this tourney at that point though, given the way strassa was playing, I'm instacalling with K10, and I also would have made a stand well before then.

Edit: Holla

Return of the Smurf
 

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Dude, welcome back!!! I hope your back to stay.

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Great post, fnurt. All those weak-tighties better go back into hiding now that you're back around. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

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Welcome back, fnurt. Great comeback post (although I've noticed you've posted a few in the last couple of days), and as it always was, it's a pleasure to read your thoughts.

This KT argument started on the other "strassa at the final table" thread, where I (among others) was quite amazed to see one poster saying it's a terrible call, and he wasn't alone. You can say many things about this call, discuss $EV vs. CEV etc, but saying it's terrible is fundamentally wrong, by a lot. Being aware of this initial "gut feeling" some otherwise good/reasonable players (I assume) have about this call is probably the most important lesson we can learn out of this discussion. That is, understanding how weak-tight a rather rational player can get, when it comes to calling all-in in certain situations. Later on he can probably realize it isn't absolutely terrible (like in this thread here), but what counts at the poker table is the real time action, at the "money time". And for this player, at that moment, it's an auto fold.

The reasoning for this fold sometimes comes in the form of the cliche about "I rather push anything next hand than call here", which could often be easily translated into "I rather play a -EV game".

Strassa certainly made a killing out of this tendency, yesterday. People at the FT were folding to him so many times, while he was pushing from all positions, that I wouldn't be very surprised if there were some JJ, QQ, AK folds too out there.

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blah blah blah, direct knock on me, fine. all you persuasive bastards are making me lean more towards the K10 call, however, im still not gonna make it till im absolutely sure its 100% the best, and im still not. i dont have a problem recognizing and realizing an error in my play. thats not a problem for me, and i may have been 100% off base. however, i DO think its a lot closer than all of you make it out to be. a LOT closer. i certainly dont hate the call at this point, but even with these numbers slapping me in the face like a rotten twig, there are still other options to pursue. holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Well like I said back on page 1 before it exploded I think 60/40 is a call and KT is 60/40, and then you add some gigabet-style big stack stuff and that makes it a call.

But I think it's pretty close and 22 is an autofold. So is 44 but I'd probably call with sixes. Maybe. Kinda.

Honestly, though, calling with 22 is awful and folding KT is certainly not The Worst Thing In The World with capital letters like a lot of people are saying. If Strassa is folding his one hand in 5 or what have you it's much easier to just push the next one.

I dunno, I'd like to have made my stand a bit before then. holla.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

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blah blah blah, direct knock on me, fine.

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I can't tell if you're really hurt or that you're joking. Don't take it too seriously, I don't mean to write posts which are direct knocks at you or anybody. It's boring. However, I really think there's a lot to learn from the fact you and others initially were thinking it's a terrible call, or something very close to it. It's nothing personal, although I have a feeling you are taking this discussion a bit too personally. I apologize if I offended you in any way.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

I think hero needs to downshift and follow a conservative game plan at this point as opposed to an agressive loose game plan.


Without following the dynamics of the table here are my limited observations not in order of importance.

1) 1/2 the field has 80% of the chips, and hero is unfortunately not in that half. This makes it unlikely for hero to make a run for the deep deep money even if he doubles up. (favorable for conservative game plan)

2) Hero has no FE (favorable for conservative game plan)

3) Hero has position on huge stack (unfavorable for conservative game plan)

4) Other short players are in worse shape (favorable for conservative game plan) Seat 2 will be in dire straits in 1 orbit.

5) Big stacks will be praying on little stacks. (favorable for a conservative game plan) There will be many opportunities for hero to get his chips in if he has a very good hand.

6) Any all-in play by a short stack is TEV positive because of the bias towards deep payouts. Having said this hero should be aware that there will be many TEV positive opportunities to come in the upcoming hands.

7) the payout structure is not flat but not that steep for the bottom 4 prizes. It is very steep for the first 4 prizes. (favorable for more conservative game plan)

8) Blinds plus Antes are huge (unfavorable for conservative game plan)

To me, a conservative game plan is getting my money in as 60% favorite. Against any two, means pairs down to 66 and hands down to k9o, or about 1/4 of the hands. I'm not folding 90% of my hands to get to 66%. If villain shows any selection criteria for his hands this raises my standards considerably.

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

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blah blah blah, direct knock on me, fine.


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I can't tell if you're really hurt or that you're joking. Don't take it too seriously, I don't mean to write posts which are direct knocks at you or anybody. It's boring. However, I really think there's a lot to learn from the fact you and others initially were thinking it's a terrible call, or something very close to it. It's nothing personal, although I have a feeling you are taking this discussion a bit too personally. I apologize if I offended you in any way.

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haha, this isnt necessary but thanks [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] nah im not offended, this is an open discussion forum, where people come to learn. i dont claim to have a perfect game. i dont claim to have even a near perfect game. i do claim to have a decent understanding enough that i can at least make an agrument in my cause. arguments get my blood pumpin, so i may come off a bit overbearing at times.. but yea, not worried bout it. holla

Re: Stars 500k hand disagreement between me and Raptor
 

Your not considering the opportunity cost of giving up future spots of getting your money in when your better off, plus the fact that 3 others on the table are facing a similar situation. The math isnt that straight forward.