Two Plus Two Older Archives - Stuff I do that I don't like

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- - Stuff I do that I don't like (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=346449)

Re: A similar hand that I don\'t like - family pot, though

You're all over the place with what-if's.

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if someone has an overpair to your 6's? if they merely have a Q?

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I'm with you here. However, look again at the players. This flop action could have started with as little as Ace-high. Neither of the aggressors are likely to have an overpair here. I'd have heard from the first one PF and the second one isn't raising with an underpair to the Q. Both players likely have a queen and I'd be astonished if their kicker hit the flop.

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what happens when you hit your raggedy two pair and lose?

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This is a runner-runner situation. I have to improve on the turn to stay with the action and they have to redraw by pairing the board or their kicker and NOT give me the flush/straight).

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but that when the action goes bet/raise the chances of people holding hands that positively own you increase dramatically.

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Bet/raise, 3 folds to me tells me a queen apiece and I have to find odds to draw to my 7 clean outs.

If I hit a 4 or 6 on the turn, I'm ahead and I'm going to bet my hand for value. They've collectively got 1-2 Qs, 2-6 kickers, and 3 2s to redraw against my two pair. They are probably drawing dead to trips.

If I improve my draw on the turn as I did, my straight outs are good and my other outs remain as valid as before. Had I improved to a four-flush, that's more likely to have paired them and my two-pair outs would be more suspect.

On a more coordinated board this is an easy fold. Maybe this is still a fold and that's why it's a hand I don't much like.

Re: A similar hand that I don\'t like - family pot, though

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if someone has an overpair to your 6's? if they merely have a Q? what happens when you hit your raggedy two pair and lose?

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If someone has an overpair to your 6's or a Q, etc then your 2-pair and trip outs are good which was my point. Sure occasionally you'll hit 2-pair and lose, but they don't get much cleaner than this and I'm ok with winning a big pot 10 times and losing 1 time.

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and what kind of bullshit advice is "fearing sets is generally a bad idea" ? yeah... looking for monsters under the bed is always wrong... but while you're busy drawing to YOUR set saying... (and you're not going to believe this)... other people hit them, too! the point isn't that somebody likely has a set right now, and certainly if you hit your 6 you stand a strong chance of winning this pot... but that when the action goes bet/raise the chances of people holding hands that positively own you increase dramatically.

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My point is that your thought shouldn't be "someone probably has a set so I should fold". Sure you need to take the action into account. Of course you need to take your reads on the players into account as well.

In this hand, the initial bettor is likely to have 2 cards, so it's the raise that's important. You are far more likely probabilistically to be against a queen (or even an overpair) than 2-pair or better. This player sees 22% of the flops and never raises preflop so AQ/KQ/AA/KK and likely QJ are all possible. 2 pair is very unlikely (given that villian has some semblance of preflop standards) and while a set is possible there are exactly 7 possibilities (3 QQ, 1 66, and 3 22) which have us crushed. When you consider AA=6, KK=6, AQ=12, KQ=12 before you even get into other possibilities, yeah fearing a set here is pretty bad at this point.