Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

I don't think it's an obvious push and if I were home I'd play around with SNGPT before responding, but it looks like time to thank UTG for not min-raising, thank CO for not pushing, then push and pray.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

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Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me2, I'd be ecstatic to have this spot. The naysayers are ignoring that having 2BBs always sucks...trying to find a "better spot" with 2 BBs is often overly optimistic.

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I push this without thinking.

Now I'm thinking.

Pushing barely EV+ to neutral at best. However, I think this is a situation where the equity of folding is kind of overstated. This is like those UTG hands that look like a fold until you turn the blind equity modeling on and they become huge pushes. I think your current situation justifies reducing the equity of a fold here and makes this a clear push.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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wait and hope for a better holding on which to risk all my chips.

all 330 of them.

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What are you getting at?

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That your equity in this tourney is already very low. So when talking about risking all of your chips as though you were risking a high likelihood of making the money it is a little misleading. OP already "risked" most of his chips...now he has to find the BEST spot possible to get back into this thing. These "best spots" might not seem so great, but then again, with 330, nothing will seem great.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

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After losing the last hand I was left with a seriously short stack. Wait and pray or push? If push, push any 2 from position or is there a limit to your push hands?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t3800)
UTG+1 (t930)
CO (t610)
Hero (t330)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1230)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero t330 (All-in)</font>

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Hey everyone, I think there's a valuable lesson in here somewhere and it's a situation I've been thinking about for a while. I think those who are worried about being called by BB and SB are right on target. But I am also inclined to push here... wow, it's a situation that is hard, but comes up often. What to do? I don't know. I had been working on making this post for a while, so now's as good a time as any to post it. I think it's debatable, just interested in hearing all sides. Trolls, you are not welcome in the other thread!!!

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Theyve explained to you many times why your fold was bad. You just close your ears or something and dont let anything in. Well Im done arguing and not talking to you anymore.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Okay, ICM takes into account many things. One thing it does not take into account is multiway pots.

By pushing here you are giving yourself the best chance to get HU and race. You have probably little to no fold equity. I would rather take this race HU than get 33 next hand and race 3 other stacks and bust.

ICM counts for a lot, but not everything. There is a reason why there is a range of -EV to +EV decisions where SNGPT indicates marginal decisions. In such places there are other factors that should weigh heavily in your decision. This is one of those cases.

I push here, this is probably the most +EV spot you are going to get. J8os is a decent hand and the BB is very likely to call with like 95% of his hands and fold 72os.

I think the key idea here is the likelyhood of the SB folding which I think is decently high.

Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
 

Wow, I had an almost identical situation occur last night in $11, except I was in small blind and had J9o, just a little over 300 chips. I called for 150, he then raised for my remainder. Guess I have to call here, right? He had KK and I lost. After the game I felt I made a horrible mistake... reading this thread has made me reconsider though.