Re: Results
 

I definitely agree, I think you fold out those hands a vast majority of the time on the river.

Re: Results
 

I really don't see how villain can even think about calling with anything less than a queen. Hero made a halfish pot flop bet, and nearly potted the turn. He has shown lots of strength. Not many people here suggested villain should call with anything less than AQ, several people said he should fold anything worse than a flush. That was befoe we got to know heros hand though. And now suddenly we expect villain to call with TT/JJ? No way.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a bluff shouldnt be in my range, and my bluffing frequency should be zero on this turn/river, but im not sure thats what you're saying. Are you saying against a good player I should have some small % percentage here, but against an unknown it should be zero?

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close. Clearly, given the line you took on previous streets, your bluff% should be small against an unknown and slightly larger against a known good player (though not too big as a better player would take price into consideration and know that since you didn't check behind, that your hand is either a monster or a bluff which actually increases the % of the time that you bluff since monsters don't get dealt as often).

The other point is that your hand has showdown value against a good portion of his hand range anyway, so the third barrel gives you zip. You seem to be saying that it's bluff or lose, which it isn't.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly, given the line you took on previous streets, your bluff% should be small against an unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, now we're getting somewhere. It should be small, not zero. Where does the small % come from?


[ QUOTE ]
The other point is that your hand has showdown value against a good portion of his hand range anyway, so the third barrel gives you zip. You seem to be saying that it's bluff or lose, which it isn't.

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The range I have him on is basically 99/1010/JJ with a diamond, or AK with a diamond. Against that range a bluff seems mandatory to me. Given this player and how he played I really had a hard time putting him on a Q.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

UTG has a pocket pair lower than QQ that didn set, something like TT. Maybe a stubborn AK but I'm thinking something like JJ/TT maybe worse.

You are likely not on a move here as you'd prolly give up river. Its too convenient for villain to put u on missed draw and call u with his likely weak hand. I think you are probably making a standard value bet with any queen. QJ? QT? Maybe bigger hand, but I think it would be too boring if u had a set here. There's also a chance u are making a thin v bet with JJ or TT, but I'm not sure.

-Jason

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I don't make this flop bet often. Thing is on this particular hand I see two players who I have position on who it really looks to me like they have given up on their hand, and if they havent are likely to cr anyway and end the hand. I really thought the bet had a chance of winning close to the requisite 1/3 times, which is fine since i only bet 1/2 pot. Also, while I'm not planning on betting the turn when I make the flop bet, its certainly a possibility, but really I never expected to have the chance. If the guy behind me calls, I'm done, if the guy who likes to cr the turn calls, I'm done, and if anybody crs the flop, I'm done. The one outcome which might lead me to bet the turn happens...so I followed through (which I won't always do here).

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Well...as somebody pointed out the last time I posted something like this, it's not 1 in 3. You have to pick it up 1 in 3 times that you do *not* have the best hand, so in this hand, for example, you could have checked through the flop, bet the turn, checked behind on the river and beat his AK anyway (because I really think that's what he had.)

But OK, let's say it's still close to 1 in 3. They have 6 cards between them. Any big diamond, queen, red mid pair, or sometimes completely random stuff at least calls, plus the PFR has a small but significant chance of checkraising something like black aces, a pure whiff, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
Well thats just mean and uncalled for.

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Haha. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I think part of the concept is there, though...it's a hand where at least your backup plan is to follow through. I don't like that much at all because most of what calls the flop calls/CR's the turn.

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Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO.

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Where does that come from? What leads you to believe he will call with these hands? This is a pretty important point because my bet is based on folding out 99/10/JJ with the draw. I really think he is folding these hands here (as he should).

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Vs. a thinking player, he called 3/4 pot/almost half your stacks on a blank and is getting something like 2.5:1 on a river that changed nothing. If he played JJ this way vs. a LAG as a semi-trap/bluff catcher, he's not folding it now. (See Strassa's hand)

Vs. a bad player, "I have JJ and I called the turn so I call the river".

[ QUOTE ]
One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

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Not necessarily...I can see you playing (for example) AdKx or AxKd this way yourself sometimes and I think that is a better hand to do this with. You're much less bluffing and much more semibluffing the flop/turn, and his most likely hand on the river actually ties you so now your push is +EV all by itself.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
so in this hand, for example, you could have checked through the flop, bet the turn, checked behind on the river and beat his AK anyway (because I really think that's what he had.)

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Well if you think villain has AK, like you say, then the line you suggest here is definitely inferior to MLG's line. Why check behind on the river vs. AK? doesn't make sense at all.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely, but how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

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That depends on what you believe the value of these chips is relative to the cost of being eliminated (or essentially so). And could you explain why the nut flush never entered his hand range for your read? It seems like the most likely to me, given the strange check-call on the flop and turn.

Re: Results
 

I think he had AK in part because he folded the river. I just meant MLG could have taken his stab on the turn, shut down when UTG called and still shown down a winner.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

[/ QUOTE ] About 31% of the time.

So you believe that this fish who had, say, JJ, will fold more than 31% of the time on the river to your all-in push?

Think about his situation on the turn:
You bet 730.
The pot was 1660.
You had 1045 left in your hand.

Now, even the slowest fish knows that you are probably going to push the river. He calls your bet.

Now, think about his situation on the river:

You bet 1045.
The pot is 3430.

The bet is about the same. The pot is twice as large. Why in the world would he call your bet on the turn and fold on the river, when he knew you were going to push the river?

This is what I think:
If he had Adxx, he is folding to your river bet 100% of the time.
If he had JdJx, he is folding to your river bet at most 20% of the time.

And really, if you feel that the push on the river is justified, you should ask yourself this question: How did I get into this situation where I am pushing bottom pair on the river against a calling station who has already called 2 decent-sized bets . Because that’s a pretty crappy situation to be in, and it didn't have to be that way.