Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

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OK, I'll confess....now who's the 3rd one?

EDIT: I posted before reading past the quote. Vic, looks like we have more than 3 so far.

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There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button. Just like there are tons of hands we should complete/fold from the SB.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button.

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LOL..

If I raise from the button, an 8% PFR 3-bets, and Victor caps, I'm folding HALF of my range.

Got that Vic? Now that you have that info, you and the 8% guy can get together and use it against me.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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people say this all the time and they are always wrong. there are like 3 10/20 players on the whole site who will fold to a cap after raising and im one of them.

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OK, I'll confess....now who's the 3rd one?

EDIT: I posted before reading past the quote. Vic, looks like we have more than 3 so far.

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There are tons of hands that we should fold to a cap after stealing from the button. Just like there are tons of hands we should complete/fold from the SB.

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this guy is unknown. hes not a 23/18 tag.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


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Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

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Thanks for showing the math, Guy. I read it over thinking "that's not right... Ah, f'it, i'm tired." Now I don't have to come back later not-tired and lay it all out.

IMHO too many 2+2ers write off loose calls as "not that big of a mistake" which is quite incorrect - i'm not talking about this hand specifically (though think about the turn with no FD) but in general.

Surf

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on this I whipped up a real quick spreadsheet and found the results to be quite interesting so I thought I would share them.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Pot Size
Win % 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1/1 100.0% 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00
1/2 50.0% 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50
1/3 33.3% 2.33 2.67 3.00 3.33 3.67 4.00 4.33 4.67 5.00 5.33 5.67 6.00
1/4 25.0% 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25
1/5 20.0% 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.80 3.00 3.20
1/6 16.7% 0.67 0.83 1.00 1.17 1.33 1.50 1.67 1.83 2.00 2.17 2.33 2.50
1/7 14.3% 0.43 0.57 0.71 0.86 1.00 1.14 1.29 1.43 1.57 1.71 1.86 2.00
1/8 12.5% 0.25 0.38 0.50 0.63 0.75 0.88 1.00 1.13 1.25 1.38 1.50 1.63
1/9 11.1% 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.56 0.67 0.78 0.89 1.00 1.11 1.22 1.33
1/10 10.0% 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
1/11 9.1% -0.09 0.00 0.09 0.18 0.27 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.73 0.82 0.91
1/12 8.3% -0.17 -0.08 0.00 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.75
1/13 7.7% -0.23 -0.15 -0.08 0.00 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.31 0.38 0.46 0.54 0.62
1/14 7.1% -0.29 -0.21 -0.14 -0.07 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.29 0.36 0.43 0.50
1/15 6.7% -0.33 -0.27 -0.20 -0.13 -0.07 0.00 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.27 0.33 0.40
1/16 6.3% -0.38 -0.31 -0.25 -0.19 -0.13 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.13 0.19 0.25 0.31
1/17 5.9% -0.41 -0.35 -0.29 -0.24 -0.18 -0.12 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24
1/18 5.6% -0.44 -0.39 -0.33 -0.28 -0.22 -0.17 -0.11 -0.06 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.17
1/19 5.3% -0.47 -0.42 -0.37 -0.32 -0.26 -0.21 -0.16 -0.11 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.11
1/20 5.0% -0.50 -0.45 -0.40 -0.35 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05
1/21 4.8% -0.52 -0.48 -0.43 -0.38 -0.33 -0.29 -0.24 -0.19 -0.14 -0.10 -0.05 0.00
1/22 4.5% -0.55 -0.50 -0.45 -0.41 -0.36 -0.32 -0.27 -0.23 -0.18 -0.14 -0.09 -0.05
1/23 4.3% -0.57 -0.52 -0.48 -0.43 -0.39 -0.35 -0.30 -0.26 -0.22 -0.17 -0.13 -0.09
1/24 4.2% -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.42 -0.38 -0.33 -0.29 -0.25 -0.21 -0.17 -0.13
1/25 4.0% -0.60 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.44 -0.40 -0.36 -0.32 -0.28 -0.24 -0.20 -0.16
1/26 3.8% -0.62 -0.58 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.42 -0.38 -0.35 -0.31 -0.27 -0.23 -0.19
1/27 3.7% -0.63 -0.59 -0.56 -0.52 -0.48 -0.44 -0.41 -0.37 -0.33 -0.30 -0.26 -0.22
1/28 3.6% -0.64 -0.61 -0.57 -0.54 -0.50 -0.46 -0.43 -0.39 -0.36 -0.32 -0.29 -0.25
1/29 3.4% -0.66 -0.62 -0.59 -0.55 -0.52 -0.48 -0.45 -0.41 -0.38 -0.34 -0.31 -0.28
1/30 3.3% -0.67 -0.63 -0.60 -0.57 -0.53 -0.50 -0.47 -0.43 -0.40 -0.37 -0.33 -0.30
</pre><hr />

Conclusion:
It sure looks like folding on the river in a big pot isn't nearly as bad as we make it out to be. Was Ed Miller wrong?

Example from chart:
Pot is 20BB and our opponent bets into us. We need to be good 5% of the time for the call to be correct. This is obvious.

Now if our winning chances are actually 6.7% (1/15) then we net a profit of 0.25BB's. But if our winning chances are only 3.3% (1/30 then we lose 0.33 BB's on the hand. Both of these scenarios represent a 1.7% change from our break even point. But, we can also look at the case where we are 1/25 (4%), which would be the a change of 5 hands in the denominator (6.7% is 1/15 and 4% is 1/25 and the breakeven point is 1/20...) and find that we lose 0.2 BB's per hand which is a similar amount to what we win when we look at it in the opposite direction.

Help me understand the results of this table which is basically looking at our EV of calling 1 big bet on the river in a pot of various size vs. our chance of winning that pot. It appears that incorrectly calling for one bet on the river is worth almost the same as incorrectly folding. (If calling is worth +0.25 then folding is -0.25.)

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9

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Holy crap, Im glad someone mentioned this. Im like never folding A9 offsuit or suited to a buttons open raise. Unless hes passive and only raises strong hands. Usually this is a 3bet for me, easy.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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i agree. but i still cant fold it.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

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seriously guys this is like the easiest river fold eva.

people calling the river pls put this guy on a hand i beat?

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Victor - this post comes from the same spot I came from in saying I could make a case for folding the river when niether the FD nor a T hits. However, you know as well as I and many others do that you can't with enough certainty say he wouldn't three bet a hand like A9, A8, 77, etc. nor bet-three-bet and lead each street with a hand like AK or Ahx. This is a button open in an aggressive game, and he's capable of a lot despite his 8 pfr over 400 hands. I don't think this is a fold; I think it is a call, though it's not the easiest call in the world (and it shouldn't be).

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He doesn't 3-bet a9. I barely 3-bet A9.

Krishan

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God damn what the hell is wrong with you fools, not three betting A9- folding to a preflop cap? How are you gonna win if you fold in these big pots?

Where's AggroHush poster when you need him?

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Whew. I'll often 3-bet A9 here.

Re: stupid 1010 hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Our House: let's say you needed him to lose 10% that hand
Our House: and it's really 6%
Our House: you're a 4% dog on one bet
Our House: you're losing 4% of $20
Our House: 80 cents bro
Our House: not $20
Victor: makes sense


[/ QUOTE ]

Math weenie jumps in to say: this is wrong.

If you're getting 9-1 (so you need to win 10%) and will actually win 6% (which I am going to approximate as one time in 16), it stacks up like this:

15 times in 16 you lose $20: -$300
One time you win $180: +$180

for a net loss of $120 over 16 trials, i.e. $7.50 a hand.

This is a pretty significant mistake.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are correct. What I mistakenly did was consider the 4% difference as 4% of 100% (with the $20 being 100%). Unfortunately, $20 represents only 10% here. So being ahead 6% of the time is a 40% loss from the 10% breakeven.

40% of $20 = $8 (NOT 80 cents)