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-   -   Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA thread (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=306780)

CallMeIshmael 08-03-2005 10:42 PM

Re: Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA thread
 
[ QUOTE ]
The correct answer is 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have absolutely no comprehension of opportunity cost.

jskills 08-03-2005 10:58 PM

Re: Don\'t Do It
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
might want to go to mars just in case

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no oxygen or water on Mars.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't kill me because I'm irrational [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

jskills 08-03-2005 11:06 PM

Re: Don\'t Do It
 
Sorry man. I think I confused the issue. When I said underdog I was referring to the original proposition bet os KK vs AA for your whole role.

Mathematically, you guys are correct of course. But all I was saying is that I wouldn't be able to risk my BR even if the payoff was over 6-1.

jskills 08-03-2005 11:07 PM

Re: Don\'t Do It
 
Dude I see your point. I was thinking with my [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and not my head.

einbert 08-03-2005 11:12 PM

Re: Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA threa
 
The correct answer is totally different depending on your poker skills and the size of your bankroll.

But no matter how large your bankroll is, there is certainly some X where the gamble is worth taking.

einbert 08-03-2005 11:16 PM

Re: Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA threa
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The correct answer is 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have absolutely no comprehension of opportunity cost.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if the thought process of "it's a profitable bet so it must be right" then the correct answer would actually be anything over 2, i.e. 2.0000000001 would be a better answer than 3.

CallMeIshmael 08-03-2005 11:31 PM

Re: Poll on risk aversion: a continuation of the Bankroll on AA thread
 
A question to those who picked 3:

How many BBs is your bankroll?

Picking 3 gives a RoR of 33%.



If you are a 1BB/100 winner with a 15BB/100 SD, this corresponds to playing with a 124BBs.

But, that calculation assumes you play until you go broke at that limit. Since this isnt actually the case, a 33% RoR corresponds to probably 90-100 BBs as a roll.


EDIT: of course there is the difference that we KNOW this bet is +EV, yet we dont know you are a winning player. But, I still suspect that most of those who picked 3 arent at the appropriate limit.


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