Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

[ QUOTE ]
So how often do you think he has to fold for this to be profitable then? Someone said 40% but I think thats really too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I estimated 40% because if he's folding that much, you're probably not going to win 65% of the hands. More like 60%, I'd guess.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

I guess I did. I still have trouble folding a hand as good as AQ 4 handed to a minraise, even with another stack being so short. I also have a tough time convincing myself that the raiser will fold AJ. If he will, he'll also likely fold KQ and all pairs <88. If I adopting the attitude that I'm here to win the tournament and not just make the money I have to push here.

I think it's a wash, the lower your fold equity, the higher your showdown equity. Unless you think he's raising with an really narrow range, I see pushing as +CEV over folding.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

What has +CEV got to do with it?

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

I call here. And fold when I don't improve on the flop. I think you'll be surprised at how often bigstack will check the flop if checked to, and bet the turn instead.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

I can definitely see the value of calling, but I'm hesitant to put in 35% of my stack, when I'm gonna be folding postflop about 70% of the time.
What do u do in this situation when the flop is KQ6?
If I had 1 or 2 more BBs, I would consider this.

Also, I don't remember, but I think the blinds would have gone up by the next time I was in the BB, which would put me in quite a predicament.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

because unless you can demonstrate that it's -$EV, that's all that matters.

Better answer
 

My gut here is that if the big stack folds at least 1/3 of the time I make more in the long run by pushing than by folding. In that case I'm at worst a 3:2 dog if called and i think that's even giving his calling range too much credit.