Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see no reason to believe that players from 3rd world countries would be especially strong at poker.

My GF is from South America. In her country of Peru I just don't think it would be very realistic because there is not too much disposable money there. This shouldn't be a surprise.
My GF is a nurse in the U.S. and makes more money than her Dad who is a doctor in Peru.

Her family does have internet though (they IM each other all the time) as do many down there...so they could play if they wanted to I guess.
They also have a couple of casinos in Lima...and I know that a couple of her aunts or cousins or something like to go to one of them occasionally to play 3-card poker or caribbean stud or one of those types of games.

So perhaps there is some disposable income down there where it could actually happen.

I gave some of the free party and stars stuff (sihrts, jackets, hats) to my GF's Mom who passed it around to other family members. So I guess I'm doing my part to promote online-poker in South America!!

Obviously there are some people in some of the wealthier nations who have disposable income. I think Brazil and Argentina qualify. I have met players from both of those countries online before.


But I still don't see why bringing in players from other countries automatically means they won't suck as much as most everyone else does.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about it. Her father is a doctor! and makes less than a nurse here. Most doctors have the inteligence and dedication to beat online poker if they wanted to at say the 5/10 level. Winning poker players can make much more than a nurse in the USA. The dad is the one that I'm saying will play seriously. As you mentioned the uneducated fish won't have much money to contribute to the online community. The USA fish is extremely wealthy when looking at the world wide picture.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone into online MMORPGs has probably heard of Lineage 2 and overseas Adena Farming sweatshops. Companies set up labs with dozens of computers and pay people $.50 per hour to play the game and then sell the currency for a large profit. The economy of many foreign countries is so bad that $.50 per hour is actually above average.

There is really nothing (except maybe gambling laws) preventing them from setting up poker sweatshops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep it is that easy to become a winning player. Set up a sweatshop, put asses in the seats and I am sure this will work out great.

What people dont seem to realize is that is that there is a set of intangibles that enable a person to become a winning player. You will never know if a person has these before they start playing. Thus 92% of the people in the sweatshop are gonna be losing players.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You act like being a winning poker player is like joining the army. You sign your name, take a physical, and get rolling. It does not work like that. Why do you think that 92% of the people lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

This point has been made by a number of posters, and I think it's missing the OPs point completely. Let's assume that 8% of all players today are good enough to beat the games for at least a small amount. This doesn't mean that 92% of todays players are inherently incapable of becoming good poker players, or that if 100 dedicated and smart nigerians decide to try to make a living at poker, 92 of them will fail. Most of the playes today play recreationally, and don't bother much about improving their game, something that the 100 nigerians in my example would probably do.

That said, I don't agree with the OP that this is likely to happen, especially not anytime soon. The reasons for this (lacking funds, education, infrastructure, etc.) has already been elaborated by other posters.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the first paragraph.

There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly! However, you present my arguement more clearly. Hopefully, now people will understand my arguement and stop talking about the fish and start focusing on the underpaid sharks coming in.

Thanks for the clarification!

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I think you are right (those not agreeing fail to look at thing in a large perspective IMO), but it is a very slow development. Remember that the 2nd & 3rd world-players have a negative edge as they are currently less experienced in poker and also remember that in many 2nd & 3rd countries those who have starting capital and computer and internet access already belong to a "class" where average salaries are close to the US.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are right (those not agreeing fail to look at thing in a large perspective IMO), but it is a very slow development. Remember that the 2nd & 3rd world-players have a negative edge as they are currently less experienced in poker and also remember that in many 2nd & 3rd countries those who have starting capital and computer and internet access already belong to a "class" where average salaries are close to the US.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree they are behind on the skillset, but seriously how long do you think it takes an educated person to beat a Party 1/2 table? One or two months tops (i was a winning player the day i started online.. simply because i started at low limits).

It's not just the factory workers who make fractions of what we do... same goes for Doctors, Economist, Actuaries, Engineers..etc.

You don't need much capital, but they would have less and therefore start at lower stakes, which coincidentally will lead to a larger percent of them having success right off the bat.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Nice thought, but no.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas.

Some guy in a developing country that sees the WSOP and thinks he can make money playing online poker is just as likely to become a fish as someone guy living in the US.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Saying that poker will run out of fish is like saying the world is going to run out of people. There is a fishy life cycle. It usually goes something like: 1.) Deposit, win big, 2.) Play some more, lose it all 3.) Complain about bad beats, cashout curse, sunspots, etc 4.) Re-deposit and suck again. This cycle might repeat indefinitely or just once or twice. It depends on the person. However, when one person quits depositing, another will come along and take his place.

Also, I've never met a losing player. They are all winners when you talk to them. People that think they are better than they are can be very profitable. This probably makes up roughly 97% of the poker population. The good thing about these people is that since they have this false sense of superiority, they will not work on their game to turn themselves into a decent player. They will eventually lose all their money and re-deposit or die out and become re-incarnated as a different donkey.

Remember: there's a sucker born every minute. Eventually the sucker will deposit some money on Party Poker.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas.

Some guy in a developing country that sees the WSOP and thinks he can make money playing online poker is just as likely to become a fish as someone guy living in the US.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think that a college educated person is as likely to suck as the average joe? Hell no. Maybe only 8% are winning players. I would say that if you looke at people with Masters or a Math/Science degree probably 25 to 50% are winning players, and if you look at all others (excluding Advanced degrees) the % that win is probably only like 5 or 6%.)