Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

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What about if you have JJ or AK?

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These I fold because there is a big difference between a big hand and one that is ahead of every hand but one. I think the numbers are probably a tossup at best and I believe in the LETOTHERSDOSTUPIDTHINGSONTHEBUBBLE theory.

Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

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You're right about adding in equity for getting in despite losing the hand...yeah, that makes it an even less close call.

If you have 35K, you have no business calling here for the basic reason that your chances of folding in are 99.2% and there is *no* reason for you to play a hand, including aces. At some point, this shifts towards timeEV (so if you had 100K, you could call with almost anything) but at 30-35K losing 12K hurts too much.

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I agree with this too.

Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

I am very sure of the 67% number as a minimum. There are 3 stacks in danger of busting after you fold:
Hero: 18.8K
MP1: 13.8K
UTG: 20K

If they all had equal stacks and the 6 other players had riduclously more chips, then each would have exactly a 1/3 chance of losing, or a 2/3 chance of winning. But in this case, the hero is actually better off because the other 6 stacks do have non-negligible chances of losing. Also, the hero has more chips than MP1.

Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

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I am very sure of the 67% number as a minimum. There are 3 stacks in danger of busting after you fold:
Hero: 18.8K
MP1: 13.8K
UTG: 20K

If they all had equal stacks and the 6 other players had riduclously more chips, then each would have exactly a 1/3 chance of losing, or a 2/3 chance of winning. But in this case, the hero is actually better off because the other 6 stacks do have non-negligible chances of losing. Also, the hero has more chips than MP1.

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Ok - I buy that arguement - but even with the benefit of the doubt you cant place hero above 75% if he folds. And Calling is undoubtedly 80% or more likely to result in a win. Thats pretty clear +EV

Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

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I am very sure of the 67% number as a minimum. There are 3 stacks in danger of busting after you fold:
Hero: 18.8K
MP1: 13.8K
UTG: 20K

If they all had equal stacks and the 6 other players had riduclously more chips, then each would have exactly a 1/3 chance of losing, or a 2/3 chance of winning. But in this case, the hero is actually better off because the other 6 stacks do have non-negligible chances of losing. Also, the hero has more chips than MP1.

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Ok - I buy that arguement - but even with the benefit of the doubt you cant place hero above 75% if he folds. And Calling is undoubtedly 80% or more likely to result in a win. Thats pretty clear +EV

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yes, I agree that calling is correct, but I am just being a nit about how it is closer than you suggested

Re: Hypothetical WSOP Satellite Question
 

KK - v almost any other hand.. and realizing the that two largest stacks have already folded - meaning someone in later postion with AT; KQ; already folded - before his push - and that if you fold he will likely be at what - 15,000 chips - you have no choice but to call.

Frankly he likey would have Ace Little or KQ so your odds pre-flop have to be near 70%

Its a call and pray with poker stars... cause you likely loose.