Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

That's the point of my thread is that it's not just a straight math problem. If it was, there should be a few responses, and a few quoted yes responses. Pure math questions are not interesting posts in my opinion. I'm taking future hands into consideration, more of a meta game approach and with those I can see it being pretty even. Pure 100% math it's a bad call, no doubt, but I feel taking the worst of it for a few bb can be made up on future hands if the conditions are correct, and they may not be here. How much value is there showing you'll pay to draw, it all depends? Maybe he'd get more value folding and showing, then on a future hand calling some big bet on the flop, and then betting big on the turn indicating he had a made hand on the flop. Ideas like that. However, this hand when considered sololy in isolation is -EV.

Looking at this post as pure math is boring. If that were the case he should have just posted, "Hey 2+2 crowd.. what's 2+2?"

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

re-read the flop action, it wasn't heads up preflop

[ QUOTE ]
it is folded to you

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

preflop action was something like: limp, limp, limp, limp, I limp on the button - SB raises $30, call, call, call, call, etc......

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
preflop action was something like: limp, limp, limp, limp, I limp on the button - SB raises $30, call, call, call, call, etc......

[/ QUOTE ]

o.

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

so did you make the call?

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

in my opinion it's only boring if you can get it right or come close most of the time, and from the looks of it most people's intuition (including mine) was way,way off the mark. I thought it was close (as a math problem), and it's in fact not close at all. lots of people are still claiming it's close, when, as presented, it's not close at all.

I think metagame issues in relation to this are somewhat overblown. lots of good players would make this call thinking it's +EV, no one is going to think you're a loose gambling crazy fish for making it and give you tons of future action.

--turnipmonster

Re: Quiz: test your EV instinct
 

[ QUOTE ]
most people's intuition (including mine) was way,way off the mark. I thought it was close (as a math problem), and it's in fact not close at all.

[/ QUOTE ]


yup,

me too, and that's exactly why I thought it was an interesting enough situation to post.....I think a lot of people in the thread just missed the point....

btw, meant to tell you, Olatunji is awesome....