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-   -   I think it's an interesting hand (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=276764)

tshak 06-20-2005 04:39 PM

Re: How many outs?
 
Assuming reasonably skilled players I do not smell a trap unless hero is known to be extremely aggressive. If someone has an overpair (not likely since no PFR), two pair (T9s), or a set, they're going to raise to protect their hand. The only person we can put these hands on is MP1 since he opened on the flop. I can't imagine, with a pot this big, for someone with two pair or a set to cold call here. MP1 could equally be betting this hand with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], AT, J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Tx, K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Tx, K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (not likely with no PFR), maybe A9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and possibly even KQ with one heart.

I do not reccommend raising. The best you can do is prevent UTG+1 from calling, which he will do if he has a good draw regardless. You will not get a free turn card in this pot. My feeling is that without any additional information you'd need about 9:1 from the pot (which you easily have) to make this call. This is just a rough estimate based on some poker stove simulations and consideration for reversed implied odds since you can make second best hand in many cases.

Play it slow, but please don't fold here.

jjacky 06-20-2005 04:40 PM

Re: OK....let\'s talk about it then.
 
very nice to see someone brought up this hand.

it is one of the very few that i questionmarked.

don't have the time to think it through deeply now. but this seems to be a call for me. i count the outs for at least 4 (tend to something near 4.5), plus some chance to have the best hand. no idea why to fold this one.

McGahee 06-20-2005 05:07 PM

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 
Why is everyone so sure they're getting a free card on this board vs. ' decent thinking opponenets'? I think raising this sucks.

SippinSoma 06-20-2005 05:31 PM

Re: I think it\'s an interesting hand
 
1. Overcards, top pairs, mid pairs, flush draws, combos; There is not enough information once action is on hero on the flop.

2. Yes, it's definitely a possibility. In fact, I think it's one of the greater possibilities given that someone bet out into the field.

3. I assumed this was a small stakes hand. Up to 3/6, when this many people limp preflop, I think it's a fair assumption that the table is pretty loose and passive. Or maybe we're just all holding great multiway hands. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

4. UI I'm sure chances are we are not best on the turn given any action at all. What if it's checked to Hero?

5. Not high - Hero has a good amount of redraws, as well as his top pair outs.

EDIT: I think we see things differently because of the read.


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