Re: RESULTS
 

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If he's definitley loose-passive, isn't that the kind of player you expect to call a big all-in raise?

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Good god, with AJo? I would say 99% hell no.

I think Justin was just wrong on the read of him being a total [censored] retard.

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It's just this specific flavor of retard, that can play very passive and bad, but still make a call like this. It's something that I would expect based on his description of a ll online qualifier.

That said, given his reads, and you can't really begrudge somebody their reads, this seems like a fine play.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Did anyone even consider the possibility that maybe he could fold his J9?

Re: RESULTS
 

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next time I call the 4th raise all in preflop w/ AJ will be the first.

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I'm sure I have done it when either :
a. I was extremely short stacked
b. I was a monster stack against 3 short stacks.

a. much more likely than b.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Did anyone even consider the possibility that maybe he could fold his J9?

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I love this move.

Re: RESULTS
 

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next time I call the 4th raise all in preflop w/ AJ will be the first. he called raises three times w/ AJo. he's a donkey.

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Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder

I don’t mean any disrespect to ZJ, but how can you say that calling an all in with AJ is any more a donkey play than pushing all-in with J9s, particularly since most posters here could correctly identify that the AJo wasn’t beat by ZJ’s hand?

ZJ made a fine play. Work out the math and he needs maybe a 35% chance they all fold to make his jam correct. Ok, he judged wrong, bad luck.

But the other guy only needs ZJ to have AA-JJ/AK-AQ less than maybe 30% of the time for his play to be correct. You can’t tell me one decision here was so different than the other in terms of quality. Can you?

Re: RESULTS
 

ZeeJ has never made a bad play in his life. Read his site - he always plays good and only loses when the cards don't go his way. No offense, but the guy who called you made either a poor decision or totally read you right. Either way, your play is not good.

Re: RESULTS
 

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he called raises three times w/ AJo. he's a donkey.

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1st raise: He called a raise with AJ, that may be a bad play (as calling a raise with J9) but hardly a donkey play.

2nd raise: All the table saw the 2nd raise has no meaning at all, and the original raiser folded !!, why is this a donkey play?

3rd and 4th raise: So, if MP3 decides to call with AJ, he made a great read on ZJ, but if MP1 calls, he's a donkey?. Why is impossible for MP1 to put MP3 and ZJ in their most possible holdings and read their intentions?.

This remember me of Annie Duke and the play with KQ called by "an amateur" with AQ. She then go on to berate the amateur because of his donkish play. For some pros an amateur should fold every time they make their "great plays" in order to deserve not to be called a donkey.

Re: RESULTS
 

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My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

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Don't turn into Hellmuth on us. You made the right play and you were crippled. It stings...but you know damn well there is no way you should be passing on situations with significant positive chip equity this early in a tournament. Replace "significant" with "minimal" and you might have an argument for folding.

Will

Re: RESULTS
 

David,
You can't be serious...

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1st raise: He called a raise with AJ, that may be a bad play (as calling a raise with J9) but hardly a donkey play.


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He was the first cold caller. He still had players left to act behind him. He has a hand that doesn't play well deep stacked with the potential to be OOP in a multihanded pot. Ugh.
ZJ, on the other hand, has
A)position
B)a hand that can make a big hand
C)much better idea of where he stood in the hand
D)another coldcaller inbetween
E)an image that would allow him to represent a made hand in a big pot.

His first call is probably pretty bad, but it was the best call of the three.

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2nd raise: All the table saw the 2nd raise has no meaning at all, and the original raiser folded !!, why is this a donkey play?


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He saw that it was an accidental raise. If it was so obvious that MP3 and ZJ were putting on a move (after they both raised), then he should have taken the lead and gone ahead and made the raise himself. This would have been infinately better than calling all in from a big raise w/ a hand that doesn't figure to be good very often given the action.

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3rd and 4th raise: So, if MP3 decides to call with AJ, he made a great read on ZJ, but if MP1 calls, he's a donkey?. Why is impossible for MP1 to put MP3 and ZJ in their most possible holdings and read their intentions?.



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MP3 was getting 1.8:1. MP1 was getting 1.45 or so and, more importantly, HE WASN'T CLOSING THE ACTION! His call would give MP3 3:1. How is AJ looking now?
If you can't see the difference between MP3's potential call and MP1's, then I don't know what to say.

The entire line stinks. Anyone who says that he made a great read are severely underestimating (as ZJ did) the chances that he probably would have made an initial all in call if the first raiser openpushed because he has a 'monster'.

Re: RESULTS
 

I understand Andrew the difference in the 1st raise between MP1 and ZJ, I just don't consider J9s a great hand in this spot, unless you're thinking in all those times the flop comes T87 or JJ9; and that you'll play perfectly all the times the flop comes 9 high; J high; JT9 (vs KQ,JT,87s); JJx (vs AJ,KJ,QJ, JT)or with a flush draw (vs probably a higher flush draw). And ZJ is not closing the action also PF. But agreed, calling with AJ in his position is a bad play.

I didn't understand your analisis of the 2nd raise, I'm not sure raising in his spot is a better play; but I'm sure calling here with all these conditions may be debatable, but hardly donkish.


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MP3 was getting 1.8:1. MP1 was getting 1.45 or so and, more importantly, HE WASN'T CLOSING THE ACTION! His call would give MP3 3:1. How is AJ looking now?

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All this analisis is completely irrelevant if he does have a read on both MP3 and ZJ. He could have seen MP3 reaction to ZJ's raise all in, and maybe something in ZJs demeanor.

Re: RESULTS
 

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This remember me of Annie Duke and the play with KQ called by "an amateur" with AQ. She then go on to berate the amateur because of his donkish play. For some pros an amateur should fold every time they make their "great plays" in order to deserve not to be called a donkey.

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When did this happen? As I recall it, this was the hand that she was eliminated with in the 2004 WSOP ME. I don't remember there being any berating whatsoever after she was eliminated. The only berating came when Brett Jungblut (sp?) threw his hand to the muck before Annie had a chance to see it. Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

Re: RESULTS
 

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My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

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Don't turn into Hellmuth on us. You made the right play and you were crippled. It stings...but you know damn well there is no way you should be passing on situations with significant positive chip equity this early in a tournament. Replace "significant" with "minimal" and you might have an argument for folding.

Will

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I really think this play was a lot more marginal than you imply.

Re: RESULTS
 

deeped stacked as they were, and w/ ZJ's current image, I think that the call w/ J9s is fine. Of course, i'm not going to argue someone out of folding it, either. just that the conditions seemed fine for it.

My analysis of the 2nd raise was that his plays didn't correlate. If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

Also, both AQ and AK and of course medium pairs up to JJ are all in ZJ's range preflop. You probably should discount AK somewhat because he didn't reraise preflop, but my default play in that spot w/ AK is to flat call in position w/ stacks that deep and proceed w/ caution. After all the hubabaloo w/ the mistaken raise, AK/AQ is certainly pushing there.

Re: RESULTS
 

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My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

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Don't turn into Hellmuth on us. You made the right play and you were crippled. It stings...but you know damn well there is no way you should be passing on situations with significant positive chip equity this early in a tournament. Replace "significant" with "minimal" and you might have an argument for folding.

Will

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I really think this play was a lot more marginal than you imply.

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

Re: RESULTS
 

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

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You spelled God wrong.

Re: RESULTS
 

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If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

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Maybe he realized they were full of it, after ZJ went all in.

Re: RESULTS
 

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If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

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Maybe he realized they were full of it, after ZJ went all in.

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Ding. Now, this could just be a bonehead play on his part. But there have definitely been times where I've intended to fold to something like a bet and a call, then there's a bet and push that just makes no sense to me and I end up calling because I don't believe the guy at all and I have little fear of an overcall. This usually turns out to be the correct decision.

Re: RESULTS
 

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

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You spelled God wrong.

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I love the internet.

Will had a problem w/ ZJ saying: I had significant positive chip equity, but I should have still folded.

You said: I think you (will) underestimate how marginal the play is.

I quoted ZJ to indicate that Will wasn't analyzing the ev'ness of the play.

sh!t, nevermind, this is stupid.

Justin. .
 

1) I really enjoy your webiste.

As for the hand. . I think by folding here you are passing up on what is seemingly a very +EV situation. However this is one of those +EV situations where you need to pass b/c when you happen to lose this hand you lose out on all of the +EV situations to come in the tournament. I would assume you consider yourself one of if not the best players at your table, thus the opportunities to acquire just as many chips can be achieved throughout the tournament with much less risk. I haven't played in the Aruba tournament but I assume it's structure is much like other WPT events (slow blind levels, deeper stacks, etc.)? If this is true you are in no rush.

Another thing when considering your choices here is how likely is MP3 to call you with a hand like AK or 88? If he's likely to take a flip for a lot of chips this early in the tournament then I would probably lay down. While your hand is failry representative of one of those types of hands, his is too.

Hope it worked out.

tdomeski

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

First of all, I don't believe your fold equity is as high as you think. Unless you're about 100% sure that the re-raiser in the SB is going to fold, it seems like a -EV play. Even still, you have to hope that the re-reraiser has only a small/medium pair or AKo/AQo type hands, which is a reasonable range for him to have, based on how he's played the hand. If you do put him on these ranges of hands, I think it is very unlikely that he is going to fold to your re-raise over the top, after he's put in 2,000. If he has the 'gambool' mentality, no way does he fold here unless he's making a ridiculous bluff.

Another reason to fold is that you're representing a pretty weak hand after you've cold called a raiser and 2 callers in front of you. After your action you're looking at a guy who re-raised preflop, and another guy who has re-re-raised preflop. This is not a good subset where fold equity is going to be high, especially against weak, calling station type players. I mean, how many times in tournaments do you see this type of action where both of the players end up folding to the allin? Not often in my experience.

I just think that ZJ is good enough to build up a stack without having to wade through a GIANT minefield here, and later on he can get players to call off chips post-flop with the worst hand. You've got what looks to be like a nice table draw, with significant amounts of preflop raising. At this type of table I'd be eager to be more patient and try to trap opponents with huge hands later on, rather than trying to make highly risky plays.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Other people are allowed to play good too. I wouldn't be shocked if the guy who originally raised to 2000 called your reraise also, assuming the guy with AJo folded.

I don't know why everyone is acting like this is obviously a +EV one and its just bad fortune that we raised some donkey who can't lay down AJo. I'd like to hear some examples from people where a play like this has worked. I mean jesus christ the guy called with AJo!! Obviously your read was way way off when you have a player who is going to call this loosely. Who knows what other hands he might have called.

Also I would bet that MP3 was going to call more than half the time. Of course I wasn't at the table so I don't know this for sure, but the pot is laying a huge price and a lot of suspicious things went down. He can't think that he's the only one at the table that noticed this chip fumble by the blind, and this could easily convince him to call with something that would normally be an easy fold.

I just think this whole play is way too dangerous.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Well put curtains. I was thinking the same thing, but was scared to say it.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

It's funny that if SB had just announced "call" rather than silently tossing his chips in (accidentally raising in the process because of carelessness), ZJ's tournament is totally different.

Moral of the story: announce "call" or "raise" when you put chips in the pot. Talk about a costly misclick...

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Another line might have been to simply double MP3's 2000 raise. That would have been enough to fold out SB and MP1 if they were gonna fold out.

If they both fold, then MP3 certainly has odds to call, but his action at that point will provide strong information about whether he was just seizing the opportunity or really had some kind of hand to play with. You are saying, I have a good hand; maybe not great, but one I would be happy to play against you heads up in position....

If he comes over the top for all his chips, you still have a 5k stack and plenty of time to recover. If he just calls, you likely outplay him on the flop. Best case (though unlikely) he folds.

Since MP1 did call, you then likely end up with two opponents, position and a hand that plays well multi handed. After the flop, you can decide where you are and what comes next.
I guess my biggest issue with the hand was the escalating pot size and the number of opponents stumbling along adding to it. Remove one opponent with absolute certainty and the play begins to feel better. But having to make a read against 3 different types of players in an unusual situation just puts too much uncertainty to make me risk going broke this early in the tourney when you feel you have the best of it at the table.

Fm

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

hmmm, not a bad play at all. too bad you got kicked in the nuts, lol. better luck next time.

Re: RESULTS
 

Without reading many of the replies besides your results, I like the behind the play. But, I am am not too shocked you were called w/ AJo - if there is one thing I have learned, you can NEVER assume you won't get called by a marginal hand. I can't even begin to count the number of times I've made a great read, made the appropriate play, and walked away shaking my head thinking "HOW could he make that call?" People (read: non 2+2ers) virtually never understand this, they'll say "he made a great read" but no, he made a bad call. But they are common.

That being said, as much as I like the thinking behind the push, the read, and the play itself, I probably would have folded to the accidental raise.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Another line might have been to simply double MP3's 2000 raise. That would have been enough to fold out SB and MP1 if they were gonna fold out.

If he comes over the top for all his chips, you still have a 5k stack and plenty of time to recover. If he just calls, you likely outplay him on the flop. Best case (though unlikely) he folds.

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nh donkey