Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

[ QUOTE ]
hey ben -

15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose



[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, I'll lose 100% of the time my opponent three bets? Well sure, I just don't think that situation exists at greater than 8 to 1. If I think I'm a favorite when called, how often am I a 100% dog when raised? Can you give an example? Not OP's, right?

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

ok dude it's completely irrelevant to the point I'm trying to make, but fine here's another example

53% of the time your opponent will call and you win
30% of the time your opponent will call and you lose
15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose
2% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you win


this is only a value raise if you can fold to a 3bet.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

haven't run anything with those numbers, but the concept jba is talking about is something that everyone should understand.

ben, having a set rule that you always call at 8-1 is obviously not optimal strategy.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

[ QUOTE ]

15% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you lose
2% of the time your opponent will 3bet and you win




[/ QUOTE ]

Um, no. Remember my rule only kicks in at 8 to 1 or better. So, 15 to 2 is 7.5 to 1. Therefore, not only do I not have to be prepared to fold, a fold would be a mistake.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

The postulate is that we are a value betting favorite when merely called. This means our hand has some value. Then we get faced with calling one additional bet. We certainly went from a small favorite to a big dog. But how often is it such a big dog that we don't win 11% "by mistake?" Even so, how would you approach someone like me? You'd value re-raise more against me (to the extent that comes up often) but would have to cut down your bluffs against me, no?

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

i'm pretty sure you're a troll now.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

Why do you say that? I thought we were having an interesting argument. You really did fail to put any pot odds in your example, and the rule I quoted only kicks in at 8 to 1. So, if I was getting better than 8 to 1, I'd have to always call in your example.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you say that? I thought we were having an interesting argument. You really did fail to put any pot odds in your example, and the rule I quoted only kicks in at 8 to 1. So, if I was getting better than 8 to 1, I'd have to always call in your example.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I'm wrong, you just seem to keep throwing the conversation off onto bizzare tangents.

i didn't list the pot odds because they are irrelevant. we are talking about whether or not a bet is for value. in the example I listed you get value from betting only if you fold when he 3bets. It is to prove my point that there are many situations that you can only value bet/raise if you are able to fold to a raise.

Re: River folds are cool atm.
 

Exactly.