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-   -   So I'm the chip leader...SB playalong (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=397685)

12-14-2005 03:24 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
You'll see what? If OP shows you results? Villain in this hand almost certainly has AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ simply because it was posted in this forum. What motivation does macdaddy991 have to post this hand? 1) He either folded, and was wondering if it was the correct fold, 2) He called, and was wondering if it was the correct call, because he was shown a better hand and lost, or 3) He was contemplating a fold, called anyways, was shown a worse hand. However, since macdaddy991 didn't want to be results oriented, he questioned if this was a +EV call. You can't be results oriented. I never said that villain will never show up w/ AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ. But more often than not, Hero will be ahead. This call is most definitely +EV.

jcm4ccc 12-14-2005 03:26 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
[ QUOTE ]
You'll see what? If OP shows you results? Villain in this hand almost certainly has AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ simply because it was posted in this forum. What motivation does macdaddy991 have to post this hand? 1) He either folded, and was wondering if it was the correct fold, 2) He called, and was wondering if it was the correct call, because he was shown a better hand and lost, or 3) He was contemplating a fold, called anyways, was shown a worse hand. However, since macdaddy991 didn't want to be results oriented, he questioned if this was a +EV call. You can't be results oriented. I never said that villain will never show up w/ AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ. But more often than not, Hero will be ahead. This call is most definitely +EV. Be thankful that I'm not Jason Strasser, cause I would've ripped you apart.

[/ QUOTE ] Wow, didn't mean to irritate you.

If Jason Strasser says I'm an idiot, then I will defer to his judgment. Good enough?

12-14-2005 03:29 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
Yes, I suppose I was irritated. Let me edit my post.

jcm4ccc 12-14-2005 03:52 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
[ QUOTE ]
You'll see what? If OP shows you results? Villain in this hand almost certainly has AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ simply because it was posted in this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about that. The results won't prove anything.

here's the thing I don't understand. Everybody (expect one person) is advocating calling this for half their stack. So why isn't anybody advocating leading out on the flop? Are all of you slowplaying it?

12-14-2005 04:42 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since this is a $5 party MTT,

[/ QUOTE ]

Insta call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me elaborate on this a little more. If this were a higher buy in event, I think this would be a difficult decision. But given that it is arguably the donkiest donkfest of online MTT's, you absolutely have to call. As others have said, he doesn't go broke if he calls and loses and I think he gets shown Ax (x<=T) by the all-in guy far too often to argue for a fold. All-in guy may not believe that he has the best hand, but he certainly hopes that he does. I have even seen this play with a hand like KK when there were 2 Aces on board. It's like they just pray that it's best and go with it. What if all-in guy does have AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ? Doesn't he just call in this spot? Even the donkiest of $5 partiers couldn't resist trying to trap with any of these holdings. And don't get me wrong, I'm not knocking anyone who plays the $5 party MTT's because I am one of them. And I have seen situations like this and folded the best hand many times.

MrMoo 12-14-2005 07:43 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
I advocated leading the flop.

I also don't think there is anything remarkable about my hand ranges. A hand range is just that, a range. To get accurate results running simulations you need to account for things like bad plays and bluffs. If you want to narrow down his range to AJ+,JJ, then I'm sure the call is -EV. But in reality, villain can be making this play with a broad range of hands which I felt I proposed at least decently. Stop trying to think of how YOU would play it. Think about how others would play it. Including idiots. Then come up with a reasonable hand range and run the numbers.

macdaddy991 12-15-2005 01:18 AM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
[ QUOTE ]
You'll see what? If OP shows you results? Villain in this hand almost certainly has AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ simply because it was posted in this forum. What motivation does macdaddy991 have to post this hand? 1) He either folded, and was wondering if it was the correct fold, 2) He called, and was wondering if it was the correct call, because he was shown a better hand and lost, or 3) He was contemplating a fold, called anyways, was shown a worse hand. However, since macdaddy991 didn't want to be results oriented, he questioned if this was a +EV call. You can't be results oriented. I never said that villain will never show up w/ AK, AQ, AJ, or JJ. But more often than not, Hero will be ahead. This call is most definitely +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez i go to bed, wake up, go to work, come home and see 30 replies. Thnaks for the input.

Truth be told, I folded. Call me weak tight, a puss, whatever, but I am still new to tournaments and I loathed losing my big stack. I still wonder though.

MrBrightside 12-16-2005 02:32 PM

Re: So I\'m the chip leader...SB playalong
 
as I said, I agree with the fold. interesting hand to post, btw.


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