Two Plus Two Older Archives - $55 bubble hand.

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- - $55 bubble hand. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=393202)

Re: $55 bubble hand.

Look you are being told by every single person here you are wrong and still can't see it. Even if somehow by magic you were made HU after "making a call like this", you wouldn't even win 70% of the time if your opponent moved all-in on you every hand. In fact, it wouldn't even be 70% if somehow every other person in the tournament before the bubble had busted on the first hand, and you had called on the first hand of the bubble, thus the blinds were 10/15.

So please, stop being daft.

Re: $55 bubble hand.

Hey, I'm just talking about how I play and trying to learn. Okay, I am wrong, I apologize.

Re: $55 bubble hand.

hey, we all have gotten our balls busted in here, just initiating you to the club [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

if you havent been busted, then you havent made a stand on any topic. keep posting brother!

Re: $55 bubble hand.

If you call and lose, you get 0. If you call and win, you have about twice as much as the other two, giving you about a 50% chance of winning. As a gross apoximation, let's say your EV is .4 if you call and win. 77 is going to be let's say 55% to win in this situation. So 55% of the time you win .4, and 45% of the time you win 0. This averages out to a little over .2 If you fold, your EV, without assuming you play any better than your opponents, is .25. So it's easy to see that folding is bad.

You can run this by ICM to get more accurate numbers, but suffice it to say that you need a stronger hand to call in this situation, because the cost of losing is so high. If you lose .25 when you call and lose, but only win .15 when you call and win, you are risking 5 to win 3, which means your calling hands have to be 5 to 3 favorites over whatever range the pusher is pushing with just to break even. Against a random hand, 77 is just barely above that, so if UTG has any standards whatsoever for pushing, calling with 77 will be -EV.

Re: $55 bubble hand.

I'm amazed at how unecessarily long this thread is.

Citanul wins as usual.

*sigh* 2p2...

Re: $55 bubble hand.

how's it going dude? you still in the ER? how's the femme?