Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

i'd 3-bet here because we're def going to find out whether we're ahead or behind.

if it's raised, we're behind and folding is not a bad option.
if it's called, the chances of us gettin a free show down is good enough to justify the 3 bet i think.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

if we call, the river will bet bet. that's 4 bb from the turn/river. are we going to fold the river unless we spike a J?

if we 3 bet, three things can happen: the villain can fold, call, raise.

if he folds we win. that's good.
if he calls, we can check/call the river- will cost us the same as calling down.
if he raises, we can fold for a cost of 3 bets. at this pt are we getting enough pot odds to justify to call a cap and the bet on the river?

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

For those who want to fold in the face of this sudden aggression, what hand do you put him on that -

a) includes a 9
b) is played by someone with 14% VP$P
c) is good enough to call a raise OOP from the small blind, but not good enough to re-raise?

Outside of pocket 9's, I can't think of any. And if that's what he had - well, that's poker.

If he's the typical fish who plays 40-50% VP$P and has no concept of position, then yes, I can easily put him on a hand with a 9 here. But he's not...

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

I can definitely see SB playing A9s and maybe K9s from the SB if he thinks Hero has been stealing alot on the table.

This is tough to put him on a nine though with his numbers. A tight aggressive player will typically lead the flop with a nine hoping the preflop raiser reraises then go for the check raise on the turn. Waiting till the turn to check raise your trips is such a fish move and if the guy was a 30+ VPIPer I would say he has a nine everytime.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

I bet the turn but where is the love in this thread for 87s?

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

If we know that he'll bet the river if we call, but he'll fold if we make it three bets, then it's clearly not correct to 3bet.

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
but if it's capped on the turn, do you see the SB with 55 or 66?

[/ QUOTE ]

That becomes more of a possiblity if he caps (66 more so than 55). Either way, if he caps it, I definitely slow down on the river, unless another Jack hits. (and if the jack hits and he had 99 after all, it's another trip to the computer store for a new mouse...)

And for some humorous reason, I can just see the Villian on some other board - "I flopped quads, and this guy 3-bets me on the turn!! Can you believe that?" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know the mantra lately is 'get to showdown no matter what with top pair or better' but I don't think 14 VP$IP players at 1/2 level are getting cute that often on paired turns. I'd fold when you get checkraised

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is exactly why I will C/R here with AK on occasion when the conditions are right (HU against a relatively loose pre-flop raiser). One of three things will happen -

1. He folds outright because he's scared of the paired board, and I've just stolen the pot. I'm actually surprised at the number of times this has worked - especially if I know the other person likes to lead out each street with nothing.

2. He calls, and I can usually get a free showdown by checking the river again, as he fears another C/R.

3. He 3-bets, and I make it clear I was bluffing by immediately folding. Everybody sees this, and when I do get my monster hand, I get a lot more action than I would otherwise.

Now, obviously, I don't do this a lot, but it is a nice way to mix things up once in a while.