Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

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Could you explain why? I mean, betting is obv. the only way you win, but I don't know if you fold me often enough after I call your turn raise.

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Show me a logical range that bets this river given his plays throughout. Are the hands you beat 12% of that range?

Think about what he thinks you have. How often is he betting AQ or AJ here?

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

It's not a matter of making you fold, it's a matter of making you incorrect to call.

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I only need to beat 10%. I can see a lot of junk betting that river. Any pair w/ the board is value betting, although 2x, 4x and 5x are pretty unlikely, and 8x and 7x only somewhat more so knowing that I can call w/ A high and that it's unlikely I have an overpair. Any PP is betting for value, and I could see pretty much all of them played this way. And then we're into the desperation bluffs that were probably a semibluff with two overcards and a draw of some sort on the turn. I had estimated that given the raggy nature of the board, I would see a desperation bluff at least 1 time in 10 hoping to fold out my overplayed KQs or medium A. He's very unlikely to bet AQ or AJ, though. Those are things he should definitely check behind.

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I think you giving him a to broad of a "junk" holding standard.

You can safely rule out a lot of "junk" based primarily on his Turn play.

I'm not saying your River check-call was wrong, necessarily.As a matter of fact pg 170, 171, and 175 of TOP sums up your situation(although I would contest that part of that assumes your opponent was on a draw a decent preportion of the time, which is certainly not the case here)

9T and TJ(and to some extent KJ) are about the only things I can see a tough, thinking player would bet in this situation that you beat. I also believe it is correct to do so. I don't believe this is 10% of his holdings here.

9T, TJ, KJ, The rest of the "junk" beats you.

Re: So I thought I should fold my boat...
 

Qh9h, QhTh, QhJh, Kh9h, KhTh, KhQh...