Re: additional picks
 

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According to the Offshore Connection which summarizes lines at different sportsbooks, the opening line was 13. Not trying to make a point, just reporting what I see/saw. On the other hand, late betting pushed the line from 13.5 to almost 14.5 between Friday and Sunday so I don't see how it ended at 13.5

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Line opened at 16 at the Stardust, which is generally regarded as the official opening line. And I didn't say it ended at 13.5, I said that's when the 'other' BSPs decided they liked the Colts and starting moving the line back. I certainly agree the line moved from 13.5 to 14 or 14.5 from late Fri to early Sunday, but the original 2.5pt move down is what has me wondering about this one.

Anyway, go nate go!

Naj

Re: additional picks
 

See my last post, I made an edit.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

anyone have any theories as to why this is so successful?

is it possible that the linesmakers take this into account? instead of determining the "true" line, they choose a line that will get an equal amount of action on both sides.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Too small of a sample to call this "successful". However, it seems promising. Go Nate!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

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is it possible that the linesmakers take this into account? instead of determining the "true" line, they choose a line that will get an equal amount of action on both sides.

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They do, but I would also think that the line has to be close to the "true" line to avoid exposure to HUGE amounts of money on the sharp side.

The BSP idea is a valuable one though. Fading the public is often a good idea. Plus, even if you lose, you still feel like a wiseguy genius who's not swayed by conventional wisdom. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

I went 5-1 this week thanks to this thread (which got me thinking more about betting against the public faves) and the entrants in the ESPN pick 'em contest who give me the actual plays.

Great read as well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]