Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Yes. I am talking strictly about the probability of the favorite winning by exactly 7.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Yes, then +7.5 would be the way to go. I'm confident in the 5.36% number. Heck, if the Raiders were being offered at -105 instead of 107 I'd be going the +7.5 route.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the Ravens getting a FG at home in primetime vs. Indy. A less healthy Ravens team pretty much shut down the Colts last year in the dome for 3 Qtrs, and I expect Balt's offense to be better this year.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with you on the Ravens. Baltimore is going to have a great defense this year, no doubt about it. However, Indy got off to a quick start last year against another great defense (New England) and almost won. However, Baltimore's D has usually started off slowly. They gave up 20 points to Cleveland in week 1 '04 and 34 points to Pittsburgh in week 1 '03.

The Ravens are getting a lot of respect this year, at least from bettors, and I'm not sure it's warranted. The defense should improve because of personell and scheme, but they're still working the new modified 46 package into their overall defense and new players haven't had time to jell and understand the system yet. Also, let's not forget that the guy leading this offense is Kyle Boller. Every day there are news articles about him regressing in training camp and the Ravens scaling back the offense even more. In the meantime, Tony Dungy has slowly been improving the Indy defense (although, with their cap situation, our expectations should be tempered).

All in all, I think that Indy should be more than a 3 point favorite (especially one with positive odds, +102 right now).

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]


Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope your pkr br is seperate from your sb br.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope your pkr br is seperate from your sb br. kkf

[/ QUOTE ]


It is, and the Houston/Buffalo O/U is down to 37 already, Mr. Wizard. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
Glad I got 4 units down already, thinking about adding, but may not.

best,

Naj