Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You do realize that your position is completely contradicted by math, right? Not to mention myself and several others I know who have had at least one 300+ BB downswing while playing easily winning poker, if not our A game.

[/ QUOTE ]

And of course you had some top expert analyze your play during that downswing, and you have a signed and notarized letter from him stating you played "winning poker" during that downswing too, right?

pahleeze!

Oh wait! we have your self-deluded opinion on the quality of your play during that period instead, right? oh and that's just as good, right?!

-Scott

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

It saddens me you can win when you don't even understand math. GoT set you straight; you think way too much of yourself to be making a 'lets teach mid high forum' post.

It's also sad this arguement continues when a bit of math can just end it.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

This is seriously incorrect.

The ROR is not cumulative, starting every time you cash out.

By your gorilla math, If I have 300BBs and have a 5% ROR, I then make 20 BBs and cash them out, I suddenly have a 10% ROR!??

Do you see how silly this is now?

The ROR is calculated NOT as a 1-shot deal, but as a long term player, trying to maintain a 300BB Roll.

Nice how you add your statements as fact though, and add to the general confusion of the typical reader.

-Scott

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

[ QUOTE ]

So please stop the macho 'big swings are something you have to deal with' attitude and let us deal with the problem instead of dismissing it!

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Ok you don't have to deal with it.

Now back to the real world.

Most of the players who report these big swings are multitabling and that's important because if we take that mythical 1BB/hr guy and a normal STD then we have to extrapolate a bit to say 300BB swings might not be reasonable.

There are a few things that are going to work against him:

1) his win rate will degrade as he/she plays more tables
2) his variance will increase in a linear fashion.
(this is not as devistating as doubling the limit but if the player was to double the limit, only have 150 bets, we would not think of it unreasonable at all for him to go bust)

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is seriously incorrect.

The ROR is not cumulative, starting every time you cash out.

By your gorilla math, If I have 300BBs and have a 5% ROR, I then make 20 BBs and cash them out, I suddenly have a 10% ROR!??

Do you see how silly this is now?

The ROR is calculated NOT as a 1-shot deal, but as a long term player, trying to maintain a 300BB Roll.

Nice how you add your statements as fact though, and add to the general confusion of the typical reader.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott,

If I am wrong I will be happy to admit it. You haven't yet proven that I am wrong and I don't think I am.

You are putting words in my mouth. I would never say that your risk of ruin doubles when you cash out, because that just isn't ture.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

For a part-time B&M player like myself, that would be 20 to 25 years worth of play. I wouldn't do anything for that long to find out how good or bad I really am. I'll accept my results over the last three years, since I started keeping track, as accurate enough.

The biggest downswing I've had in that time has been just under 200 BB. And I know I was playing crappily at that time. I know very few players who don't play worse when they're running bad. The two things feed on one another.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is seriously incorrect.

The ROR is not cumulative, starting every time you cash out.

By your gorilla math, If I have 300BBs and have a 5% ROR, I then make 20 BBs and cash them out, I suddenly have a 10% ROR!??

Do you see how silly this is now?

The ROR is calculated NOT as a 1-shot deal, but as a long term player, trying to maintain a 300BB Roll.

Nice how you add your statements as fact though, and add to the general confusion of the typical reader.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott,

Nice cute and smug retort of yours there.

However, you are wrong. He is right. The risk of ruin has not increased. In his example, he has cashed out a lot of money. So, when he goes broke in one on the trials, he is not "ruined" as he still has money. However, he did go through a 300bb downswing, which is the topic of this thread. BTW, I did not check his math, so that may or may not be right, but his approach is sound to illustrate the point (300bb downswing is signficantly more common than RoR given 300bb roll).

Of course, with the abysmal level of math and logic knowledge often displayed on this forum, poor game selection, overestimation of expected edge in certain situations, and a number of other factors, the chances of the average poster here having a 300bb+ downswing are sky-high.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

Surely there is a simple mathematical way to decide the issue.

If there is a x probability of having a 100BB downswing at any given time, the probability of having 3 consecutive 100BB downswings is simply x^3---each downswing is an independent event.

There is also an average number of hands per 100BB downswing, say y. Then we know that there is x^3 probability of having a -300BB every 3y hands...

So consider every 3y hands a sample. After n samples, the probability p_300 that we have had a 300BB downswing is p_300 = (1 - (1 - x^3)^n).

Once p_300 is greater than .5, we expect to have had a 300BB down swing after n * 3y hands.

So somebody just give me a good player's values for x and y, and we will can decide how many hands you should have to play before expecting a 300BB downer.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

For winning players (because losing players will always have a 300 bb) downswing it's the relationship between win rate and standard deviation that determines the liklihood of having 300 bb downswing. Someone making 1.5 BB/100 with a 16 BB/100 or 17 BB/100 standard deviation a 300 bb downswing is "normal" IMO that is happens more than we'd like.

Re: 300BB downswings are not normal. PERIOD!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is seriously incorrect.

The ROR is not cumulative, starting every time you cash out.

By your gorilla math, If I have 300BBs and have a 5% ROR, I then make 20 BBs and cash them out, I suddenly have a 10% ROR!??

Do you see how silly this is now?

The ROR is calculated NOT as a 1-shot deal, but as a long term player, trying to maintain a 300BB Roll.

Nice how you add your statements as fact though, and add to the general confusion of the typical reader.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Scott,

Nice cute and smug retort of yours there.

However, you are wrong. He is right. The risk of ruin has not increased. In his example, he has cashed out a lot of money. So, when he goes broke in one on the trials, he is not "ruined" as he still has money. However, he did go through a 300bb downswing, which is the topic of this thread. BTW, I did not check his math, so that may or may not be right, but his approach is sound to illustrate the point (300bb downswing is signficantly more common than RoR given 300bb roll).

Of course, with the abysmal level of math and logic knowledge often displayed on this forum, poor game selection, overestimation of expected edge in certain situations, and a number of other factors, the chances of the average poster here having a 300bb+ downswing are sky-high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to say El Diablo, i was very much looking forward to your coming into this thread and telling everyone how much they underestimate variance and overestiamte their edges. Hopefully now some people will listen, although you try to convey this enough and still people don't get it, so who knows. I'm curious, when you were playing limit, what bankroll in terms of BB did you try to keep for yourself?