Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

i bet/call the river.

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

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You're looking to get maximum value out of every hand.

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That doesn't mean pissing away your chips on mediocre hands when the payoff is tiny (the pot is small).

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I prefer to make moves when I am likely to be ahead.


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Apparently not.


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Seriously, man, I don't know what your problem is. Think about the range of hands that beat him. 66, AA, JJ, 69, A9, K9, J9, and any two clubs. He's at BEST 8th place. If making a move seems like a good play to you, feel free to sit with me anytime.

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First, we are talking about the turn so any two clubs are out. He would have raised with JJ A9s Those are out. His range therefore is. K9s-92s, A9o-92o, 66

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,068 games 0.010 secs 206,800 games/sec

Board: 9h 9c 6s Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.8714 % 50.00% 11.87% { Qs9d }
Hand 2: 38.1286 % 26.26% 11.87% { 66, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 92s+, A9o, K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o, 92o+ }

Are equity is huge! This = put bets in on the turn.

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

My initial reaction is that once he puts in the fourth bet on the river you're most likely toast unless he's a total goofball.


i like it all except I would bet the river and call his raise.

Results for the afternoon crowd...
 

Button showed A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (!?!?), and MHING.

Re: Results for the afternoon crowd...
 

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Button showed A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (!?!?), and MHING.

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Guess I should include AA in his range next time. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

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The question is how many times does Button play 9T-92 from the Button. Given his stats I'd say every time.

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That's a serious overestimation. I'd say he plays 95o+ frequently, but 92o, 93o, and 94o very rarely. 92s, 93s, and 94s are all possible, but there are only one combination of each of these.

Rob

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

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The question is how many times does Button play 9T-92 from the Button. Given his stats I'd say every time.

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That's a serious overestimation. I'd say he plays 95o+ frequently, but 92o, 93o, and 94o very rarely. 92s, 93s, and 94s are all possible, but there are only one combination of each of these.

Rob

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I don't know. It isn't like he's saying "I'm only going to play the top 75% of hands." I think it's quite possible that he plays every hand on the button. Or He could be playing every hand in an unraised pot.

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

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The question is how many times does Button play 9T-92 from the Button. Given his stats I'd say every time.

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That's a serious overestimation. I'd say he plays 95o+ frequently, but 92o, 93o, and 94o very rarely. 92s, 93s, and 94s are all possible, but there are only one combination of each of these.

Rob

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I don't know. It isn't like he's saying "I'm only going to play the top 75% of hands." I think it's quite possible that he plays every hand on the button. Or He could be playing every hand in an unraised pot.

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People with ~75% VPIPs aren't thinking positionally very often. Generally the reason they have such a high VPIP is that they never fold their SB or BB, regardless of the number of bets he's playing, and that they play a fairly wide range of hands -- but not every hand. I can't guarantee you that he doesn't have 94o, 93o, 92o very often here, but I'd be willing to bet on it. If I'm guessing that he's got somewhere around the top 80% of his hands (that's an overestimate, AFAIC), 95o is his cutoff. But honestly I don't think that's even his cutoff. Generally a player like this is "looking to make straights or flushes" and is playing hands like 92s, 95o+ (generally 96o but I think 95o is a fair cutoff).

You're going to see 92o, 93o, 94o very very very rarely here. Yes, we have a tendency to open up in late position in limped pots. But most fishy players aren't thinking that way -- they aren't thinking about position and whether or not that improves their holding -- they're just thinking about what sort of hands their cards can make. If he's a 75% VPIP'er, he's got some hand selection, and I'd be willing to make the bet that 94o- don't make the cut, unless he's "defending" his blinds.

Rob

Re: Pedal to the metal with trips...
 

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The question is how many times does Button play 9T-92 from the Button. Given his stats I'd say every time.

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That's a serious overestimation. I'd say he plays 95o+ frequently, but 92o, 93o, and 94o very rarely. 92s, 93s, and 94s are all possible, but there are only one combination of each of these.

Rob

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I don't know. It isn't like he's saying "I'm only going to play the top 75% of hands." I think it's quite possible that he plays every hand on the button. Or He could be playing every hand in an unraised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

People with ~75% VPIPs aren't thinking positionally very often. Generally the reason they have such a high VPIP is that they never fold their SB or BB, regardless of the number of bets he's playing, and that they play a fairly wide range of hands -- but not every hand. I can't guarantee you that he doesn't have 94o, 93o, 92o very often here, but I'd be willing to bet on it. If I'm guessing that he's got somewhere around the top 80% of his hands (that's an overestimate, AFAIC), 95o is his cutoff. But honestly I don't think that's even his cutoff. Generally a player like this is "looking to make straights or flushes" and is playing hands like 92s, 95o+ (generally 96o but I think 95o is a fair cutoff).

You're going to see 92o, 93o, 94o very very very rarely here. Yes, we have a tendency to open up in late position in limped pots. But most fishy players aren't thinking that way -- they aren't thinking about position and whether or not that improves their holding -- they're just thinking about what sort of hands their cards can make. If he's a 75% VPIP'er, he's got some hand selection, and I'd be willing to make the bet that 94o- don't make the cut, unless he's "defending" his blinds.

Rob

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I guess I'm going to have to yield to experience here. How do you manage to get in the minds of these loose players? Is it just that you have seen them play for a long time.