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-   -   Fold AA preflop (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=144661)

DCIAce 11-04-2004 10:10 PM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

Let's say you lost the last hand you played, and are down to T50 on the button. Blinds are 250/500, Stacks are t200 (SB), T50 (BB), and T7700.. Big stack calls first in. There's no way that calling with anything here is correct.

The only real situations where folding AA is correct is when you have no real hope of winning, despite the outcome of the hand, with a chance to move up in $ by folding, and in Satellites or other events with strange payout structures.

Folding in this situation is horrible.

KenProspero 11-04-2004 11:33 PM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
JNash:

I don't mean this as a criticism, but let me ask you this as a serious question. Why are you rehashing this question?

Having read several AA fold threads here, I think the consensus of the forum is that except in an unusual situation where you risk busting out, and where winning the hand doesn't materially help you, Folding AA pre-flop is never right.

Let's put all the math and poker logic aside. You've asked this question and been given advice. You've asked a second time and been given the same advice. (Hey, I went down the same path as you and was given the same advice you were given.)

Now, you're free to take this advice or ignore it. If, in fact, you're right, and everyone else is wrong, you're making a winning play. If everyone else is right, you're making a losing play. Either way, they're your cards to play, and you should play them as you best think will improve your bankroll. However, I don't think you'll ever convince the people here that folding AA pre-flop is a good move (except in the limited circumstance described above).

My experience (after a similar AA criticism) was to read some more, and try to apply the advice here. In my case, I needed to become more aggressive overall. Again, I figured either it would work, or it wouldn't. My experience -- I'm busting out of more games earlier (but hey, 10th pays the same as 4th) However, I'm doing much better in the games where I don't bust out early Overall my 'in the money' percentages and 'average profit' have increased (so maybe the people here do know a thing or two about poker).

La Brujita 11-05-2004 12:04 AM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
[ QUOTE ]
I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns!

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity when did you fold'em in a cash game?

ChrisV 11-05-2004 12:10 AM

Re: AA vs. 99
 
Raising to 600 with 99 in that situation is awful. As the big stack I will reraise allin with any two cards 100% of the time.

There's no way you should fold AA here (or KK) but anything worse than that and you have a case. I would fold the nines.

KenProspero 11-05-2004 12:11 AM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
I saw worse:

In a cash game I saw someone fold JJJJ (on the board) with an Ace kicker.

It was his first time playing, He had A2 (or said so) and said he didn't know that you didn't go to the second hole card in case of a tie (even though it would mean playing 6 cards).

you had to feel sorry for him, folding the nuts (though it would have been a 3-way split pot)

SmileyEH 11-05-2004 01:11 AM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
I put the other guy on 77 and knew he would draw out on me. This is what I call 4th level thinking.

-SmileyEH

Jedi Flopper 11-05-2004 01:14 AM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

4 people left you have 100 in chips. Big stack has 5K the other two have 2450 each. All of them move in and it comes to you. you still want to play your AA?

rachelwxm 11-05-2004 01:59 PM

why you should not fold AA according to ICM
 
Well, I agree this is very close to fold AA but still not according to ICM.
You folding equity 28.9
You all in and double up on bb, equity 35.6
So you need to be 4.3:1 favorate in order to break even.
And AA is 5.8:1 against random hands, similar against top 15%.

The worst case if bb has pair or 98s etc, but if your assumption is that he would call with anytwo, I think it's a +ev push here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Vanquish 11-05-2004 03:35 PM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you lost the last hand you played, and are down to T50 on the button. Blinds are 250/500, Stacks are t200 (SB), T50 (BB), and T7700.. Big stack calls first in. There's no way that calling with anything here is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, this statement doesn't make much sense. Okay, sure, you're pretty much toast, but you don't provide any context. I assume this is one of those "you should fold everything when you're down to an insignificant amount of chips and just hope enough people knock each other out before I get to the blinds again" theories. I don't buy into that.

If you're going to make any sort of attempt to mount a comeback, which is what I would do, then your chances of doing it are wholly dependent on how good the cards dealt to you are. You have no folding equity by being the first one into the pot. With the blinds that high, your opponents have the odds to call with anything, and you'll be facing at least two opponents in the blinds. Here at least you have 1+ active players who will hopefully narrow the field for you.

I would call every time in this situation with AA. And the bottom line is you are still the favorite versus everyone who gets involved in the pot. You may not be 50% or more to win, but you are still more likely than anyone else to take down your share of the pot.

Vanquish 11-05-2004 03:40 PM

Re: Fold AA preflop
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ] 4 people left you have 100 in chips. Big stack has 5K the other two have 2450 each. All of them move in and it comes to you. you still want to play your AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I can editorialize on Irieguy's comment (and correct me if I'm wrong Irieguy), I think what he means is that playing AA at least to the flop is never ever -chipEV. It's entirely possible, though unlikely, that folding AA is a +$EV move, as in the situation you describe.


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