Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

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Hand 1: 31.1892 % 30.98% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 68.8108 % 68.61% 00.20% { TT+, AKs, AKo }


And if you include AQ...

Hand 1: 37.2601 % 37.06% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 62.7399 % 62.54% 00.20% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


(Which I'm not sure should be included.)



So if its the looser range, then it's almost exactly neutral EV (I'm getting 1.76-1, and thus need 36% equity).

And does no one give any attention to the "requesting time?"

In my experience in a spot like that it makes him look weak, and I'd guess that is intentional, and more often than not means he is very strong.

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Do your figures consider the fact that villain is much more likely to be dealt AK or AQ than AA or KK? I based my math on that assumption.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

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The bb seems to be good, but is VERY tight, and has not shown any inclination to bluff.

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Where do you get the read that villain is so weak/tight that he will not push here with a reasonable hand? You say he is a good player. Isn't this just the situation where a good tight player would use his image to make a move? He doesn't know you raised from the button with a hand as strong as 99. If he is a good player, he should know the standard play is to push with any raising hand. How do you know so much about this guy? I think you are either being too cleaver or letting your fears override your reason.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do your figures consider the fact that villain is much more likely to be dealt AK or AQ than AA or KK?

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pokerstove does take that into consideration yes.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

I'm much more willing to call a push than I am to call this raise. It looks exactly like KK or AA and I think there are times when you can fold here. I hate folding and I probably stick it in but I don't hate your fold. Clearly you were there and had the read. Even if it is slightly wrong, due to the nature of the tournament, I don't know how anyone can say that the fold is horrible.

Schaefer

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm much more willing to call a push than I am to call this raise. It looks exactly like KK or AA and I think there are times when you can fold here. I hate folding and I probably stick it in but I don't hate your fold. Clearly you were there and had the read. Even if it is slightly wrong, due to the nature of the tournament, I don't know how anyone can say that the fold is horrible.

Schaefer

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Given the small reraise and the guy playing supertight, I can see your read. I don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation. However, if all the reads from his betting pattern and pause made you think big pair, it is fine to lay this down. I think it is better to go with your gut than the math and what is a standard play.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

Isn't it amazing how 1 post from a respected player can change everything betgo?

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

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Isn't it amazing how 1 post from a respected player can change everything betgo?

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Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[quoteI don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation.

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dude, this is gonna be AA/KK/maaaybeQQ almost every time. that is my read of the sit based on the info we have. that is all.

Re: Ansky451 is weak-tight at heart*
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that he needed AK or JJ to reraise in this situation.

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dude, this is gonna be AA/KK/maaaybeQQ almost every time. that is my read of the sit based on the info we have. that is all.

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OP said that BB is good, not that he's horrible.