Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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I don't know if the OP is a homer (due to the word 'our' referencing L'Ville in the original post), but he did provide a few nuggets of good information in his case against Kentucky.

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I'm not exactly sure which part you are talking about, but if I did say "our" it was in reference to Kentucky. I am a Kentucky fan, although it might be hard to tell from the OP...very happy to see them beat U of L and play like they did today, but I'm not going to pass up a huge edge if I think I have one.

My biggest play of the year was South Carolina -12 vs. Kentucky in CFB, my next biggest was Kentucky +22.5 vs. Louisville in CFB, won both easily. I take my edges where I think I can get them, period.

I disagree with people who say you shouldn't bet in games involving your own team...I know more and have better information on Kentucky football/basketball than anything else in sports, why should I not take advantage of that? If you can't be honest with yourself about your favorite sports team...then what can you be honest w/ yourself about?

Just wanted to clarify that...I appreciate your support. Hopefully I'll do better in the future, Lord knows I'll never call it the "Game of the Century" again, lol.

Edited to add: I believe I posted both of those CFB picks in this forum, not sure if they can still be accessed or not.

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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I disagree with people who say you shouldn't bet in games involving your own team...I know more and have better information on Kentucky football/basketball than anything else in sports, why should I not take advantage of that? If you can't be honest with yourself about your favorite sports team...then what can you be honest w/ yourself about?

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Preaching to the choir here my friend [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] gl in the future

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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Therefore your bet was weak because a good player getting into early foul trouble certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, no?

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Well, that's ALWAYS true, of any CBB game. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but what is? It happens, although it's not a very likely occurrence. It randomizes the outcomes of the games somewhat, true, but it is what it is. It's one of the many reasons I prefer the NBA to college in general, for betting and as a fan.

If you think the possibility of such an occurrence constitutes a "weak bet," then I can't believe you think betting on the NFL is profitable, the most randomized sport of all IMO. How many games turn on completely subjective holding or, better yet, 50-yard pass interference penalties, or simply the funny bounce of an oblong ball? What is more random than who recovers fumbles, onside kicks, etc.? You think an injury to Peyton Manning or Tom Brady is outside the realm of possibility, or wouldn't hurt their respective teams? Just making a point. (Not to hijack, but I'm starting to agree w/ mrbaseball about the NFL. Even the books have gotten hammered two years in a row.)

I said I thought U of L would win outright here between 60-70% of the time (although not in my OP), and I still believe that's true.

If you're still complaining because I roped you in w/ the title, I'm sorry, I didn't honestly think it offered the biggest edge in sports betting in 100 years. If my argument was so convincing as to lead you to believe that, I apologize. Maybe tech should institute a rule where everyone who posts picks has to quantify their edge to the nearest tenth of a percent to avoid confusion. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

bills217,

I apologize for my post. I was drinking when I watched the game with my friends, and for some reason your post infuriated me, and I got pissed off and wrote some stupid stuff. I generally don't make posts like that, but that's no excuse. Again, sorry.

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

This forum is horrible and you along with others are why it is so awful. Anyone who uses terms like "game of the century", "lock of the week" is an idiot.

I'll be looking for your 350 STAR PLAY OF THE MILLENNIUM. You can't lose 2 in a row can you?

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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Little-known fact: in the Tubby Smith era, Kentucky plays worse at home in Rupp Arena than on the road or at neutral sites. This is not an anomaly.

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You are wrong.

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But the difference is, he's incompetent. (You casual NCAABB fans need to know this. Do not listen to the bobbleheads. Tubby Smith is an awful coach and a worse recruiter. He couldn't recruit OOT posters to go to the Playboy Mansion.)


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This is the only thing you got right.

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Our best player, point guard Rajon Rondo, is a non-threat to score unless it's a layup or dunk. He can be ignored completely from 12 feet and out.

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LMAO is all I need to say.

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1) U of L's best player was a non-factor due to foul trouble, and they had an off-shooting night, rendering the result a fluke, or

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You have got to be kidding me? Padgett their best player? BAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Have you ever seen this team play?

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And I don't know very many teams that can counteract 9/37 shooting through 25 minutes, although some of the credit obviously goes to Kentucky for that.

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Some? They dominated them. It wasn't like the cards were just missing open shots.

I see you are a UK fan, that surprises me. I wrote this post thinking you were either a Cards fan or maybe IU. You must not have seen Louisville at all this year. They are garbage. I went to the Chicago St game on Tuesday and if it wasn't for Chicago St having the worst coaching ever, the game would have been at least close. It was close until about 10 minutes left.

I am a UK fan and of course I was worried, but I knew that we could beat them. After watching today I don't think there is any chance the Cards win 60%-70% of the time especially in Rupp. The Cards are horrible and I think they are gonna get smacked around in the Big East. UK is pretty bad (at least by UK standards) but I think they are a better team than Louisville.

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

DCWildcat,

Apology accepted. I didn't think you were that out of line anyhow. Go Cats! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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Little-known fact: in the Tubby Smith era, Kentucky plays worse at home in Rupp Arena than on the road or at neutral sites. This is not an anomaly.

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Since the 2002-03 season:

Apparently the impossibly tough Rupp Arena conditions didn't bother Nike Elite in '02. They walked in and beat the Cats 84-75, and it wasn't like we had a crap team. UK went 32-4, 16-0 SEC that year. Of the four non-exhibition games we lost that year, one was at home (Mich. St.), two were at neutral sites (UVA in Hawaii and Marquette in Elite 8), and one was at Louisville, where the fans are split and it might as well be a neutral site. Undefeated on the road outside the state of Kentucky.

2003-04 - Two losses at home (against Louisville and an awful Georgia team), two on the road, one at a neutral site.

2004-05 - Three losses on the road (by one point to Florida, at South Carolina, and at eventual champ UNC), two at neutral sites, and one at home, to the only quality non-conference team we played at home, Kansas, without their best player, Wayne Simien.

Does that seem to indicate homecourt dominance to you?

And who could forget 2000? Ah, the Ten-Loss Tubby days...lost to Penn State (in basketball) at home, 73-68, then promptly went to the Dean Dome the next week and beat UNC by 17. Go figure.

Does any of that seem to indicate that the recent Kentucky teams have played better at home, especially when you consider that the schedule on the road and at neutral sites is MUCH tougher? (The likes of Nike Elite, Penn State, and the Vermont School for the Blind, Deaf, and Dumb usually come at home.)

Not only is it true, but it actually makes some sense when you think about it, which I addressed in my OP.

If nothing else, folks, please take this much from this thread: when Kentucky plays at home, the line is likely inflated somewhat. The opposite may very well be true when they play on the road. Act accordingly, but do so, of course, at your own peril.

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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This forum is horrible

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Then why are you browsing it? Do you like wasting your time?

If you had the bankroll to bet $1,000 a game, and done nothing besides track mrbaseball's baseball picks (esp. playoffs), MyTurn2Raise's CFB picks, and Null's NCAA BB picks, you would not have had to work or play poker this year. (I could have included any # of posters' picks here, those were just right off the top of my head.)

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you along with others are why it is so awful. Anyone who uses terms like "game of the century", "lock of the week" is an idiot.

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Merry Christmas! (Do trolls celebrate Christmas?)

Re: NCAA BB Game of the Century - Louisville +2 vs. Kentucky
 

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I'll be looking for your 350 STAR PLAY OF THE MILLENNIUM. You can't lose 2 in a row can you?

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My top NFL play for tomorrow will be officially be titled "350 STAR PLAY OF THE MILLENIUM."

Happy Holidays,

bills217